ohbehave said:
No offense, Kasi, I know your just trying to help but there is no way to guess at that stuff with any degree of accuracy.
None taken ohbehave lol.
But, you know, most of the more general stuff like jumping to max at the first + count, fewer units of roll in better games with same risk, the different amounts one bets at various TC's when pen changes, when max bet occurs, etc isn't really guessing since it's trueish for just about any game when pen increases drastically.
So, I'll state unequivocably, that making a max bet in both a 3/4 game and a 3.5/4 with these rules, compared to betting optimally, and playing-all while using indexes, at +5, as a some posters have "guessed" is, how should I say it, wrong. As wrong as the day is long. It was wrong yesterday, it's wrong today and it'll be wrong tomorrow. That's not a guess. The only guess is to what degree it is wrong. So I guessed +6 in 3/4 and +8 in 3.5/4.
The same goes for making max bet at TC+1 or the first + count that has an advantage. It will turn a bed of roses into the manure that grows them. I know this is true. My guess of it maybe not even doubling EV while increasing variance by a factor of 5X was a guess. If it were to actually double EV while only increasing variance by 4X, I'd be a little surprised. I think that was intended for the better game lol.
I did stick my neck out a little suggesting the specific $spreads at the specific TC's for each game lol. But it's a guess rooted in some reasonably (as I see it lol) guessed numbers at least lol. Not a guess pulled out of thin air as seems to be the oft-preferred method here lol. There actually exist ways to figure out an optimal spread. My ways are not as accurate as a sim's but they're usually pretty close.
Mostly in the hope someone could run 2 real sims for me and take my guesswork out of it lol. And so I could compare my "black magic" ways with reality lol.
The OP can take his best guess on the best guess here and bet his money on the guess he likes best lol.
Any guess has some degree of accuracy lol.
I guess maybe you picked on me because I got alot more specific in my guesses, perhaps doing "crazy" stuff like the self-evident suggesting a different $amount at different TC's for a different pen level? lol.
We're all trying to help this guy but, my best guess, is he was getting some truly awful guesses as to what he should do lol.
I just couldn't take it anymore - "aggressive spreads" with max bets at +1 and guessed $rolls with truly guessed risks while admitting, dare I ask what's the point, all without running a single number lmao. Now that's what you call a guess.
Didn't mean to rant on lol. Absolutely no offense taken - you're absolutely right - I violated my own rule of running a sim so I don't have to guess lol.