Can someone tell me the odds of this happening

hawkeye

Well-Known Member
#21
When I first started playing online just for fun, no money, I noticed that. Watching Rounders and watching TV made me think that poker was more fun, but I honestly find Hold 'Em to be too boring. The big hands happen, but not a lot, and not a lot to me.

I find blackjack to be much more interesting and entertaining.
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#22
callipygian said:
It's a great hand, but gets devalued due to conditional probability - if anyone raised preflop, people who call are more likely than strict probability to have high, suited cards. So the probability of someone having KhJh on the turn is higher than the probability of someone having KhJh preflop, because the betting selects for good hands.

In this case, note how Thunder expressed his OP: that he eventually lost the hand (not that he had already lost on the flop). I'm guessing that a fourth heart came out on the turn and river (now HUGELY increasing the odds of people having flushes as there are 4 hearts on the board) and that someone held the Kh. Also note that if the board pairs on the river, it's more likely than statistical that someone has a full house - a set has up to 10 outs against a made flush and two pair has 4 outs against a made flush, so these are drawing live even if they're sure someone has a flush already.

I'd be ecstatic with flopping the 2nd nut flush, but I wouldn't be wedded to it.
No, he had the higher flush on the flop. That's partially why I was incredulous. I didn't eventually lose the hand. I was behind the whole way but it was just amazing to me considering that out of the 11 cards in play after the flop. (3 on the board and 8 held by players) 9 of them were hearts.
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#23
K here is one for the math guys. AA kept re raising with a guy preflop. We both go all in. AA V AA. I lose. What are the odds in a 9 man game of you having AA and someone else beating you with AA. I pegged it at around 1 in 12 million. What do you guys think?
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#24
Well I can tell you that the odds of you losing when you have AA and someone else does is 2.17% The odds of two people having pocket aces in a 9 player game is 1 in 24,172. so .0217*(1/24,172) should give you your answer assuming it's a 9 player game.
 

miplet

Active Member
#25
1357111317 said:
K here is one for the math guys. AA kept re raising with a guy preflop. We both go all in. AA V AA. I lose. What are the odds in a 9 man game of you having AA and someone else beating you with AA. I pegged it at around 1 in 12 million. What do you guys think?
The following assumes that you haven't gotten any cards yet.

The odds that you and another player will get pocket aces are 8 in 270,725.
The odds that you will lose given you are heads up with both players having pocke Aces is 37210 in 1712304. Simple math gets you 297680 in 463563500400 or 1 in 1,557,254 (rounded). All this assume me and the calculator got along well. :+)
...
ok I'll even give my sources
2 pocket aces from wiz of odds
ten people are each dealt two cards from a single deck what is the probability that two players will get a pair of aces?

First, there are 10*9/2=45 ways you can choose 2 players out of 10. The probability of two specific players getting four aces is 1/combin(52,4)=1/270,725. So the probability of any two players getting a pair of aces is 45/270,725=0.0001662. Aug. 7, 2003
We change the 10*9/2=45 to 8 because you have to have one of the pairs and any of the other 8 players can have the other.

For the odds that you will lose go here and fill out the boxes. it will give you the exact odds to win lose or tie.
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#27
I split a pot yesterday. I had KK he had JJ. All in preflop. No aces or 10s on the board and I hit my set. Split pot. That was another kick in the balls.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#28
1357111317 said:
I split a pot yesterday. I had KK he had JJ. All in preflop. No aces or 10s on the board and I hit my set. Split pot. That was another kick in the balls.
Quads on the board? Flush on the board? How does that happen?
 
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