Sweet! I'm glad I saw this thread, cause I was thinking about posting my own...
The other day I was playing an 8-deck S17 game with
no LS at a local indian casino. After an hour or so I noticed the dealer check his hole with a 10 showing, and then he made a slight hand movement as if he were about to flip over his cards, but he quickly stopped himself and continued play. I had 20, but thought "Crap, he thought he had 21, so he's probably got 20 too." Sure enough, I pushed. A couple hands later with a new dealer I notice the same occurrance... I bust my 12 and the dealer had 20 again. I decided I would definately try to exploit the next time this happened. Later, the dealer's change again, and the new dealer recognizes one of the players as a regular, and they start to chat about sports as he deals... A couple hands into the shoe, he's in mid sentence as he checks his hole with a 10 up and he non-chalantly says "Aw dammit," and continues talking. I hit my 16 in a positive count and bust, but he did have the 20. Anyway, the first tell happened 3 more times before I left. I was right 100% of the time about the dealer having 20 six times in about six hours. I wasn't able to properly take advantage of it, but at least I made $500
The next day I got to thinking, and decided it might be worth it to try and better exploit the tell at a different casino. I ran some sims for the 8deck H17 DA2 DAS RSA LS game I previously avoided, and decided the other game was still better, but it would be fun to try it out.
When I get to the other casino, I soon find that the game is actually 6 decks, and the pen was WAY better than I had imagined. Anyway, the dealers were slower and seemingly more careful, and only one time I noticed the "tell" and I turned out to be wrong. Dealer checked his hole with a ten up, and did this double-karate-chop motion over the cards, then looked up and crisply said "OK." I really wasn't too certain this time if that was the sign I had been looking for or not, but I had a soft 16 and the count was slightly negative... I decided to play it out. I hit and take a 10, then an ace... I hesitate, then signal to hit again... With only a slight double take, the dealer gives me a 5. "Aww, one to many, huh?" I say. The rest of the table is completely silent. The next 2 players wave their hands, then the dealer flips a 5 for his hole card, and follows up with an 8. The table rejoiced and thanked me for "taking one for the team" (I'd hate to think what would have happened if I took the 8 instead?). So, I made a cover play at no cost to me... But I was still disapointed that I was wrong. I dried my tears with an extra $370 that I made in the 2 hours :eyepatch:
So now I'm 6 for 7... Chance? At least some, but I'm pretty confident it's not just "noise". I'm gonna be mostly playing the H17 game with LS now, so I wonder, if I ever see this tell again, and am confident that the dealer has 20, what hands would you
not surrender?