dice control
- Thread starter xxrenegadexx
- Start date
:grin: 
"your bringing up old threads, stop it" *sarcasm*
the problem with this topic (and finding bias wheels in roulette) is that there is no way it will ever be answered for one simple reason.. how can you make a sim for this to run billions of throws? how do u know that the ppl who are good at this arent just getting lucky? if you think you can do it, how do you know? with this topic comes the topics of selective memory and "the long run".. i do think its possible, absolutely, but you will never know if its skill or luck that is making you win, but im pretty sure that it would be hard as hell to overcome the over 1% house edge with dice control.. as with blackjack, video poker, and other such games, you can use math and sims to prove if things work or not..
the problem with this topic (and finding bias wheels in roulette) is that there is no way it will ever be answered for one simple reason.. how can you make a sim for this to run billions of throws? how do u know that the ppl who are good at this arent just getting lucky? if you think you can do it, how do you know? with this topic comes the topics of selective memory and "the long run".. i do think its possible, absolutely, but you will never know if its skill or luck that is making you win, but im pretty sure that it would be hard as hell to overcome the over 1% house edge with dice control.. as with blackjack, video poker, and other such games, you can use math and sims to prove if things work or not..
:laugh:
Good point. It is a physical skill that cannot easily be simulated by a computer. Just like a roulette wheel, the only way to be confident is to record many thousands of attempts by hand. But then the problem becomes a subtle change in abilities that could skew the results. A roulette wheel may slowly lose its bias for a particular number, or a dice thrower’s technique may change over such a large sample. He won’t be throwing the dice quite the same way as he was 5,000 throws ago. Also, both techniques rely on certain conditions. We might get very different results if we do the same tests under different circumstances.
We might be able to get statistically valid proof that these techniques work, but to get a specific win rate for any given session would be almost impossible.
-Sonny-
Good point. It is a physical skill that cannot easily be simulated by a computer. Just like a roulette wheel, the only way to be confident is to record many thousands of attempts by hand. But then the problem becomes a subtle change in abilities that could skew the results. A roulette wheel may slowly lose its bias for a particular number, or a dice thrower’s technique may change over such a large sample. He won’t be throwing the dice quite the same way as he was 5,000 throws ago. Also, both techniques rely on certain conditions. We might get very different results if we do the same tests under different circumstances.
We might be able to get statistically valid proof that these techniques work, but to get a specific win rate for any given session would be almost impossible.
-Sonny-
Sounds like you're dead on there Sonny. Some numbers I've been able to come up with basically show that a DC needs to be able to possess a skill in which they can maintain the dice on axis at least every 1 in 3 rolls to gain an excellent advantage...1 in 5 for some bets, but 1 in 3 is the benchmark for a true DC. But that's the math, and the physical skill is where the difficulty is. Imagine having to keep the dice on axis (and not randomly on axis) every 1 in 3 rolls in the casino. SRR is not a good measure of DC, it is frequency of keeping the dice on axis.
good luck
good luck
Dice Control or Bust!
Well here goes nothing….
Dice control is a very controversial subject. Some say yes, some say no. I had to find out for myself. In previous threads I mentioned that I personally don’t think any one person can totally control the dice, but I do think you can detect patterns and take advantage of them. By using a set that reduces the occurrence of the seven, the shooter can extend his or her roll. Having said that, if the shooter knows the frequency and percentage he rolls of each number 1) compared to the total that number rolls, and 2) compared to the total number of sevens thrown relative to that set, then the shooter can throw longer and maximize his bets and wins. He may not make his point all the time, but he can make some wins and money in the process.
I am still a work in progress. I have been practicing throwing on axis at home for quite some time. Keeping records of the different numbers thrown for the different sets of the dice. Currently I am up to six different sets. I have a spread sheet that I have created to track every throw. I have formulas that compare the percentages. These formulas tell me what set is best for making each point, and they tell me what place bets are best for each set. As I practice and play, I bet as I go. That way if I don‘t get good results I lose money, and when I GET RESULTS, I WIN BIG! As my toss evolves, the percentages change and I make betting and set adjustments.
At the casino, I try to bet on my turn only. When other players are the shooter I watch to see their technique. If they are totally random, I try not to bet, or bet real small. Occasionally I will bet the don’t pass on a random shooter’s come out roll. I will place $5 on the don’t pass, if the random shooter makes a point of 4 or 10, I may take odds and wait it out. If the random shooter establishes a point of 6 or 8, I will drag my bet off the don‘t pass and place it on the pass line and take single odds. I will sometimes place the opposite number (6 or 8). Using this betting method, I can decide whether to bet with or against the random shooter after the point has been established. This may not win a lot in the long run, but on random shooters it sure limit’s the losses. If a shooter appears to have a controlled throw, I may decide to bet with him. Sometimes I don’t even play the pass line, I just place bet, get a few hits and down! The main thing is to limit my losses until it is my turn.
Here is an example of one of my turns. On a come out roll, I will use the set that I call the All 7’s. This set does in fact hit more sevens than any other number (or set). Also note that the Totals at the end of the chart reflect all the numbers combined. The seven on this set (17.56%) is also above the Total average (15.51%). There is no other set that produces the seven for me with a higher frequency (5 & 9 is close, but not quite). Therefore on a come out roll I will throw using the All 7’s set.
Now look at the number 4. The highest percentage over the Total (8.75%) is in the 2-V set (11.31%). A positive advantage of 2.56%. The percentage of fours thrown (11.31%) less the percentage of 2-V sevens thrown (13.39%) is a disadvantage of -2.08%. The net advantage is approximately +0.475%. So, while I am the shooter, if 4 is the point, I will use the 2-V set. While using the 2-V, the best bets (IMHO) are in order, the 6 (2.09% advantage), 8 (1.14% advantage) and 4 (0.47% advantage). Note: the 2-V has the lowest percentage of the seven showing up!
This is not beating the game and making all your points, but you do have a better than slight edge on winning (some Bens) before you CRAP-OUT! IMHO!
If anyone knows where I can find more data on the percentage of numbers thrown in the game compared to my numbers let me know. I would love to make some comparisons using random numbers and my personal control numbers.
Whew!!!
Well here goes nothing….
Dice control is a very controversial subject. Some say yes, some say no. I had to find out for myself. In previous threads I mentioned that I personally don’t think any one person can totally control the dice, but I do think you can detect patterns and take advantage of them. By using a set that reduces the occurrence of the seven, the shooter can extend his or her roll. Having said that, if the shooter knows the frequency and percentage he rolls of each number 1) compared to the total that number rolls, and 2) compared to the total number of sevens thrown relative to that set, then the shooter can throw longer and maximize his bets and wins. He may not make his point all the time, but he can make some wins and money in the process.
I am still a work in progress. I have been practicing throwing on axis at home for quite some time. Keeping records of the different numbers thrown for the different sets of the dice. Currently I am up to six different sets. I have a spread sheet that I have created to track every throw. I have formulas that compare the percentages. These formulas tell me what set is best for making each point, and they tell me what place bets are best for each set. As I practice and play, I bet as I go. That way if I don‘t get good results I lose money, and when I GET RESULTS, I WIN BIG! As my toss evolves, the percentages change and I make betting and set adjustments.
At the casino, I try to bet on my turn only. When other players are the shooter I watch to see their technique. If they are totally random, I try not to bet, or bet real small. Occasionally I will bet the don’t pass on a random shooter’s come out roll. I will place $5 on the don’t pass, if the random shooter makes a point of 4 or 10, I may take odds and wait it out. If the random shooter establishes a point of 6 or 8, I will drag my bet off the don‘t pass and place it on the pass line and take single odds. I will sometimes place the opposite number (6 or 8). Using this betting method, I can decide whether to bet with or against the random shooter after the point has been established. This may not win a lot in the long run, but on random shooters it sure limit’s the losses. If a shooter appears to have a controlled throw, I may decide to bet with him. Sometimes I don’t even play the pass line, I just place bet, get a few hits and down! The main thing is to limit my losses until it is my turn.
Here is an example of one of my turns. On a come out roll, I will use the set that I call the All 7’s. This set does in fact hit more sevens than any other number (or set). Also note that the Totals at the end of the chart reflect all the numbers combined. The seven on this set (17.56%) is also above the Total average (15.51%). There is no other set that produces the seven for me with a higher frequency (5 & 9 is close, but not quite). Therefore on a come out roll I will throw using the All 7’s set.
Now look at the number 4. The highest percentage over the Total (8.75%) is in the 2-V set (11.31%). A positive advantage of 2.56%. The percentage of fours thrown (11.31%) less the percentage of 2-V sevens thrown (13.39%) is a disadvantage of -2.08%. The net advantage is approximately +0.475%. So, while I am the shooter, if 4 is the point, I will use the 2-V set. While using the 2-V, the best bets (IMHO) are in order, the 6 (2.09% advantage), 8 (1.14% advantage) and 4 (0.47% advantage). Note: the 2-V has the lowest percentage of the seven showing up!
This is not beating the game and making all your points, but you do have a better than slight edge on winning (some Bens) before you CRAP-OUT! IMHO!
If anyone knows where I can find more data on the percentage of numbers thrown in the game compared to my numbers let me know. I would love to make some comparisons using random numbers and my personal control numbers.
Whew!!!
Attachments
Not sure where there would be any data as far as actual tracking of stats at the casino where it would get into actual results depending on the set a player is using.
However, I did go through and calculate the house/player advantages for most of the core craps bets with each of the dice sets. There are a few sets that really don't buy you anything, but several others that are REALLY strong. But there's one thing to gain an advantage from a set with your bets by keeping the dice on that axis...and another when you are able to keep the dice on axis once in so many rolls.
And that was the thing I tried to calculate after that...skill. How do you measure that skill though? Well, the way I measure it is by the frequency that a DC can keep the dice on axis: e.g. once in every X rolls. And basically, the math says that a DC really needs to throw on axis about 1 in every 3 rolls to gain an advantage with the "good" sets while playing the solid core bets (Pass Line, Place 6 & 8, etc.).
I know that there are different ways for prospective DC's to measure their skill, like SRR...but I think it is really just how often can you keep the dice on the axis you want it on. I tried to lay a good bit of that on the website I put up for a few of my friends that wanted to learn about craps, so you can check those posts if you want...but it is EXPECTED probabilities that it is based on.
good luck
However, I did go through and calculate the house/player advantages for most of the core craps bets with each of the dice sets. There are a few sets that really don't buy you anything, but several others that are REALLY strong. But there's one thing to gain an advantage from a set with your bets by keeping the dice on that axis...and another when you are able to keep the dice on axis once in so many rolls.
And that was the thing I tried to calculate after that...skill. How do you measure that skill though? Well, the way I measure it is by the frequency that a DC can keep the dice on axis: e.g. once in every X rolls. And basically, the math says that a DC really needs to throw on axis about 1 in every 3 rolls to gain an advantage with the "good" sets while playing the solid core bets (Pass Line, Place 6 & 8, etc.).
I know that there are different ways for prospective DC's to measure their skill, like SRR...but I think it is really just how often can you keep the dice on the axis you want it on. I tried to lay a good bit of that on the website I put up for a few of my friends that wanted to learn about craps, so you can check those posts if you want...but it is EXPECTED probabilities that it is based on.
good luck
First, NEVER pull down a Don't Pass bet that has gotten a number, I always try to buy these bets off of players. Even on the 6or8 you are a 6:5 favourite to win the bet. If you really think the guy will make the point place the number, you'll make $2 if he hits it and only lose $1 if he sevens out.
Secondly, for your results please show some sample sizes. Also I find it would be more accurate to track how your dice behave rather than just the number total produced by each set. For example, no matter what set I am throwing I consider each die to be a seperate entity. The top of the dice being a 1, bottom 6, the face closest to me a 2, side facing downtable a 5, 3 on the right, 4 on the left. If I am throwing a hardway set and the two top numbers (55) land up, this is logged as 1,1. If the top number left die lands up and the bottom number right die lands up this is considered 1,6. (A seven out for most combinations). This way you are tracking the individual actions of each dice in comparison to the mechanics of your roll (which ideally is as close to a constant as humanly possible). You can always alter your set to suit the mechanics of your grip and throw. Your results are indicating your "2V set" to be effective while your "3V" set hits too many sevens. If (BIG IF) there is 100% consistency in the physics of your throw, grip, point of impact, etc., simply reversing your 3V set (Making it a 3^ set) will give you the exact same sevens to roll ratio of your 2V set. I was able to alter my all 7's set in this way to hit more 11's and fewer craps on my off axis come out rolls. It also made me more likely to have a six or 8 as my come out point as opposed to a 5 or 9.
Keep in mind my sample size is not yet large enough to say with 99% confidence (3 Std. Deviations) that my dice control is greater than random so I am far from qualified to be giving coaching advice. However if DC is possible it will be through you making your throw the constant in the equation so try to approach it as scientifically as possible. As an aside, if a casino will allow you to throw dice without quite making it to the end wall it has been my experience that it will eliminate more of the randomness. I try to make each throw come as close to the end wall as possible without touching it.
BW
Secondly, for your results please show some sample sizes. Also I find it would be more accurate to track how your dice behave rather than just the number total produced by each set. For example, no matter what set I am throwing I consider each die to be a seperate entity. The top of the dice being a 1, bottom 6, the face closest to me a 2, side facing downtable a 5, 3 on the right, 4 on the left. If I am throwing a hardway set and the two top numbers (55) land up, this is logged as 1,1. If the top number left die lands up and the bottom number right die lands up this is considered 1,6. (A seven out for most combinations). This way you are tracking the individual actions of each dice in comparison to the mechanics of your roll (which ideally is as close to a constant as humanly possible). You can always alter your set to suit the mechanics of your grip and throw. Your results are indicating your "2V set" to be effective while your "3V" set hits too many sevens. If (BIG IF) there is 100% consistency in the physics of your throw, grip, point of impact, etc., simply reversing your 3V set (Making it a 3^ set) will give you the exact same sevens to roll ratio of your 2V set. I was able to alter my all 7's set in this way to hit more 11's and fewer craps on my off axis come out rolls. It also made me more likely to have a six or 8 as my come out point as opposed to a 5 or 9.
Keep in mind my sample size is not yet large enough to say with 99% confidence (3 Std. Deviations) that my dice control is greater than random so I am far from qualified to be giving coaching advice. However if DC is possible it will be through you making your throw the constant in the equation so try to approach it as scientifically as possible. As an aside, if a casino will allow you to throw dice without quite making it to the end wall it has been my experience that it will eliminate more of the randomness. I try to make each throw come as close to the end wall as possible without touching it.
BW
I agree with the first point whole-heartedly. Making the place bet on the appropriate number is a proper hedge...but with a Don't bet that has traveled, you now have the most powerful number in the game WORKING FOR YOU--the 7.
The second point makes a ton of sense as well. When I practice at home, I don't even worry about what "set" I am using...your throw, technique, etc. should be the same regardless. I like to set up the dice so that the 1's are on the turning axis...it makes it very easy to determine whether I kept them on axis or not (but that's just my opinion).
Finally, there is something to be said about a favorable casino. Dealers that are a little lax about you hitting the back wall are indispensable, and that is perhaps a great reason to toke the dealers in the game of craps. In BJ, it's debatable whether it will benefit you anything...in craps, it can be crucial.
good luck
The second point makes a ton of sense as well. When I practice at home, I don't even worry about what "set" I am using...your throw, technique, etc. should be the same regardless. I like to set up the dice so that the 1's are on the turning axis...it makes it very easy to determine whether I kept them on axis or not (but that's just my opinion).
Finally, there is something to be said about a favorable casino. Dealers that are a little lax about you hitting the back wall are indispensable, and that is perhaps a great reason to toke the dealers in the game of craps. In BJ, it's debatable whether it will benefit you anything...in craps, it can be crucial.
good luck
Number the sides of the die
For practice and tracking, shouldn't a thrower be able to set the dice with the one on top as you said, the six is opposite on the bottom, the two and five on opposites, etc. for both dice and just throw this set to track the ending and landing results. Then adjust the starting dice set to get the proper end results. It makes sense, but sure would be difficult to track and formulate, not to mention the enormous amount of time. I don't know if I'll live that long, or have that much in the way of patience! My grand kids said they wouldn't help.:laugh: But seriously, I may look into this, and if it shows or reveals a pattern pretty quick, I may pursue it.
Re the throw... I practice throwing about 8" from the back wall at home. The dice normally bounce once and will tap the base of the wall and stop, or die before they get there. Most of the time within an inch or so. While on my recent trip, it took two or three tosses on each table to determine how much roll I had after the landing. I almost always was at stick left one (first).Most of the time I used the circled 12 on the Field at the other end of the table as my landing spot. Most landings stopped at the wall, a few touched the base and even fewer bounced up and touched the pyramid back wall. On this trip, I never once was told to hit the back wall. My landings were close enough.
I used my All 7's, 2-V and Hardways sets and had unbelievable results.
My 3-V was fair, but not as successful.
Overall, I was impressed with my own results compared to those of previous trips and those of other players that were setting and throwing in a controlled fashion. There is absolutely (without a shadow of a doubt) an advantage to dice control. Like I have said before, you may not beat the game and make the points, but you can beat the casino and win more money, by betting on predictable patterns of your own! You must have self control and try not bet on random shooters.
This is what it is all about.....
The casino has the money, AND I WANT SOME OF IT!!!!
For practice and tracking, shouldn't a thrower be able to set the dice with the one on top as you said, the six is opposite on the bottom, the two and five on opposites, etc. for both dice and just throw this set to track the ending and landing results. Then adjust the starting dice set to get the proper end results. It makes sense, but sure would be difficult to track and formulate, not to mention the enormous amount of time. I don't know if I'll live that long, or have that much in the way of patience! My grand kids said they wouldn't help.:laugh: But seriously, I may look into this, and if it shows or reveals a pattern pretty quick, I may pursue it.
Re the throw... I practice throwing about 8" from the back wall at home. The dice normally bounce once and will tap the base of the wall and stop, or die before they get there. Most of the time within an inch or so. While on my recent trip, it took two or three tosses on each table to determine how much roll I had after the landing. I almost always was at stick left one (first).Most of the time I used the circled 12 on the Field at the other end of the table as my landing spot. Most landings stopped at the wall, a few touched the base and even fewer bounced up and touched the pyramid back wall. On this trip, I never once was told to hit the back wall. My landings were close enough.
I used my All 7's, 2-V and Hardways sets and had unbelievable results.
My 3-V was fair, but not as successful.
Overall, I was impressed with my own results compared to those of previous trips and those of other players that were setting and throwing in a controlled fashion. There is absolutely (without a shadow of a doubt) an advantage to dice control. Like I have said before, you may not beat the game and make the points, but you can beat the casino and win more money, by betting on predictable patterns of your own! You must have self control and try not bet on random shooters.
This is what it is all about.....
The casino has the money, AND I WANT SOME OF IT!!!!
Other DC's and Influencers...
While I was in Gulf Port at Island View on _________ morning the ___, I had several good rolls. There was a man from Florida playing stick left second. He too was a DC. I was playing stick left first. He and I stepped back from the table to discuss methods and sets. He asked about other websites with craps message boards and whether I was on one called Heaven craps or craps heaven. Something like that? I've never heard of this website and would really like to contact this guy. He couldn't stay because he had to catch a flight back home. I did mention this website and can only hope he checks this out, and contacts me.
While I was in Gulf Port at Island View on _________ morning the ___, I had several good rolls. There was a man from Florida playing stick left second. He too was a DC. I was playing stick left first. He and I stepped back from the table to discuss methods and sets. He asked about other websites with craps message boards and whether I was on one called Heaven craps or craps heaven. Something like that? I've never heard of this website and would really like to contact this guy. He couldn't stay because he had to catch a flight back home. I did mention this website and can only hope he checks this out, and contacts me.
I agree with your practice tracking thoughts. There's not much of an advantage to practicing sets, when it is keeping the dice on axis that is the point. Applying the set to your throw is like playing BS as a card counter, it should be second nature and memorized.
Regarding your trip...excellent to hear that your throws are ending up where you want them to. The soft tap at the base of the wall or even getting away with not hitting the wall is great news. Part of the DC skill is knowing tables at specific casinos and remembering how your throws react on them. Sounds like you're gathering a knowledge base.
good luck
Regarding your trip...excellent to hear that your throws are ending up where you want them to. The soft tap at the base of the wall or even getting away with not hitting the wall is great news. Part of the DC skill is knowing tables at specific casinos and remembering how your throws react on them. Sounds like you're gathering a knowledge base.
good luck
Still tracking
I'm still recording and tracking my results. They are not changing too much. I am adding a new bet to my strategy based on the percentages of numbers I throw with different sets. I only lay these bets during my own rolls.
The overall pecentage of the 7 showing on all my rolls and sets combined is 15.89%.
The percentage of 7 showing on the all 7 set is 18.75%.
The percentage of 4 showing on the all 7 set is 7.96%.
The percentage of 10 showing on the all 7 set is 8.13%.
Therefore, during the come out roll (using the all 7 set) I bet the pass line and I lay the no 4 and no 10 (for $40 each). I have three ways of winning, and can only lose one of the two lay bets at a time. After the point is established, I pull both lay bets down.
Does this make sense? I have been testing it while I practice, and it appears to work real well. I do occasionally roll 4 or 10 on the come out, and lose one of the bets.
Anything I have overlooked that may cause this not float?
I'm still recording and tracking my results. They are not changing too much. I am adding a new bet to my strategy based on the percentages of numbers I throw with different sets. I only lay these bets during my own rolls.
The overall pecentage of the 7 showing on all my rolls and sets combined is 15.89%.
The percentage of 7 showing on the all 7 set is 18.75%.
The percentage of 4 showing on the all 7 set is 7.96%.
The percentage of 10 showing on the all 7 set is 8.13%.
Therefore, during the come out roll (using the all 7 set) I bet the pass line and I lay the no 4 and no 10 (for $40 each). I have three ways of winning, and can only lose one of the two lay bets at a time. After the point is established, I pull both lay bets down.
Does this make sense? I have been testing it while I practice, and it appears to work real well. I do occasionally roll 4 or 10 on the come out, and lose one of the bets.
Anything I have overlooked that may cause this not float?
Is the table vig charge rounded down at your casino? If so you can increase your edge by laying the 4/10 in increments of $78, so long as your bankroll RoR can handle the extra action in negative flux. This would give you a 1.09% edge on this bet instead of your existing 0.86%. My numbers of course assume you can maintain your percentages and that your casino only charges commission on wins.