doubling bet concept
- Thread starter homer
- Start date
Both the casinos and I love progressionists
You will find yourself a highly comped casino patron. Do not fool yourself, the casinos understand their games and know that the progression player is not playing a winning game. He is playing a game where he will have many small winning sessions but when he loses, he will lose big. While, myself, as a counter gets tossed, you will get comped. Now if there were no limits on tables, the caisnos might just toss you also.
Simply, the math tells us that if you played 24 hours of blackjack, you are due one 10 hand losing streak. In my many years of playing, I know I have had 3 streaks of losing over 20 hands in a row and perhaps over 100 streaks over 10. I can also state that in more than half of these sessions I have ended a winner which would have been impossible (given table limit and bankroll) had I played out a progression.
Now on leaving after 7 and surpassing the table limit, you can always move to a higher limit table. You are limiting you loss but more often than you think, your session will end with your first or second shoe.
Play enough and you will see it all happen. I recently got 7 aces in a row. Split to 4 hands and landed up with hands totaling 2,2,2,and a whopping 6 and won all 4 bets thanks to a dealer bust. Play enough and that losing streak from hell will appear and someday repeat itself. Play enough with your progression and you will land up losing at the exact rate you would have lost if you did not do a progression.
ihate17
You will find yourself a highly comped casino patron. Do not fool yourself, the casinos understand their games and know that the progression player is not playing a winning game. He is playing a game where he will have many small winning sessions but when he loses, he will lose big. While, myself, as a counter gets tossed, you will get comped. Now if there were no limits on tables, the caisnos might just toss you also.
Simply, the math tells us that if you played 24 hours of blackjack, you are due one 10 hand losing streak. In my many years of playing, I know I have had 3 streaks of losing over 20 hands in a row and perhaps over 100 streaks over 10. I can also state that in more than half of these sessions I have ended a winner which would have been impossible (given table limit and bankroll) had I played out a progression.
Now on leaving after 7 and surpassing the table limit, you can always move to a higher limit table. You are limiting you loss but more often than you think, your session will end with your first or second shoe.
Play enough and you will see it all happen. I recently got 7 aces in a row. Split to 4 hands and landed up with hands totaling 2,2,2,and a whopping 6 and won all 4 bets thanks to a dealer bust. Play enough and that losing streak from hell will appear and someday repeat itself. Play enough with your progression and you will land up losing at the exact rate you would have lost if you did not do a progression.
ihate17
Someone has probably already posted this elsewhere, but it's worth another read.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html
Homer, the system you are proposing is called the Martingale system. Read what this guy has to say about the Martingale before you go to the casino. Good luck to you.
Doc
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html
Homer, the system you are proposing is called the Martingale system. Read what this guy has to say about the Martingale before you go to the casino. Good luck to you.
Doc
That's right. And with a 6-hand loss limit you would go broke almost twice every 24 hours! If you include splits and doubles (and sometimes several of both!) then your bets would reach the table limit much sooner than six hands.
I’ve been luck (so far
). My longest losing streak was 13 hands in a row. But even that would have bankrupt poor homer several times over! :cry:
-Sonny-
I’ve been luck (so far
). My longest losing streak was 13 hands in a row. But even that would have bankrupt poor homer several times over! :cry: -Sonny-
This is called the "Martingale System", and it just is not the way to go.
Yeah you could lose 8 hands in a row and then win and make it all back, but think about it.
Bet 1= $5 Lose
Bet 2= $10 Lose
Bet 3= $20 Lose
Bet 4= $40 Lose
Bet 5= $80 Lose
Bet 6= $160 Lose
Bet 7= $320 Lose
Bet 8= $640 Lose
You have now gone from being a $5 player to betting $640 a hand, and you're betting all that to just be up $5 if you win.
Yeah you could lose 8 hands in a row and then win and make it all back, but think about it.
Bet 1= $5 Lose
Bet 2= $10 Lose
Bet 3= $20 Lose
Bet 4= $40 Lose
Bet 5= $80 Lose
Bet 6= $160 Lose
Bet 7= $320 Lose
Bet 8= $640 Lose
You have now gone from being a $5 player to betting $640 a hand, and you're betting all that to just be up $5 if you win.
Its easy to see how bad this system is.
Even if the player is 60% to win and 40% to loose. If you use the martinagle here you have a much higher risk of ruin than a player flat betting who is trying to win as much as you. In no cases does this system work.
This system ONLY is useful when you need to win a small amount once off. For example I was in a competition once to see who could win the most money at our home setup casino games. I didn't bet and everyone else lost except one guy who ended up like 15% up by luck. By using martinagle I was able to win 20% with over 80% chance of pulling it off. Another time I had 90$ and needed 100$ to buy in at a poker game, so I used martingale to win the extra $10 by betting from $5 and doubling up, while people who were in the same situation as me found themselves unable to swing 10$ ahead by shear luck in a game where the odds are against you.
Even if the player is 60% to win and 40% to loose. If you use the martinagle here you have a much higher risk of ruin than a player flat betting who is trying to win as much as you. In no cases does this system work.
This system ONLY is useful when you need to win a small amount once off. For example I was in a competition once to see who could win the most money at our home setup casino games. I didn't bet and everyone else lost except one guy who ended up like 15% up by luck. By using martinagle I was able to win 20% with over 80% chance of pulling it off. Another time I had 90$ and needed 100$ to buy in at a poker game, so I used martingale to win the extra $10 by betting from $5 and doubling up, while people who were in the same situation as me found themselves unable to swing 10$ ahead by shear luck in a game where the odds are against you.
homer, I hope you aren't offended that people seem a little condescending. It's not cause they are bad, its because:
1. they want to help you
2. every serious player of blackjack has contemplated the martingale and many think they invented it
However all of the odds and statistics are against it. The wizard of odds site is only one of many that will explain to you why it doesnt work.. there is a lot more. But, just like people get struck by lightning, I guess you can profit, semi-long run if you are lucky. By the way, I just posted a story of a losing streak of about 30 hands, which with martingale would take out Donald trump, even if you started over a few times. Good luck...
1. they want to help you
2. every serious player of blackjack has contemplated the martingale and many think they invented it
However all of the odds and statistics are against it. The wizard of odds site is only one of many that will explain to you why it doesnt work.. there is a lot more. But, just like people get struck by lightning, I guess you can profit, semi-long run if you are lucky. By the way, I just posted a story of a losing streak of about 30 hands, which with martingale would take out Donald trump, even if you started over a few times. Good luck...
Thick as a brick...
Homer, please. We want to help! I'm, admittedly, stubborn. I've sat through 10 losing hands, one won and sat through another 6 losing hands! In an ideal world, progression betting would make us all rich. Can't speak for the other posters, but I'm not. You CAN'T rely on that progression to play out. You CAN study basic strategy, card counting and make some very educated bets to advance your cash.
Homer, please. We want to help! I'm, admittedly, stubborn. I've sat through 10 losing hands, one won and sat through another 6 losing hands! In an ideal world, progression betting would make us all rich. Can't speak for the other posters, but I'm not. You CAN'T rely on that progression to play out. You CAN study basic strategy, card counting and make some very educated bets to advance your cash.
Profitable trip but added one more losing streak
I think this time I lost 21 hands in a row, counting double down or split loses as two or in one case 3, so if you are a purist, it might have been 17 loses in a row but it really does not matter. A martingale progression works, but it only works if two things are available to you.
1. An unlimited bankroll in the billions
2. A casino with an unlimited bankroll and no maximiums on their tables.
If you do not have both (one will not do) of these things then have fun with your progression system but do not tell us it will be a winner.
My trip, losing streak and all, was still profitable, not greatly but profitable.
ihate17
I think this time I lost 21 hands in a row, counting double down or split loses as two or in one case 3, so if you are a purist, it might have been 17 loses in a row but it really does not matter. A martingale progression works, but it only works if two things are available to you.
1. An unlimited bankroll in the billions
2. A casino with an unlimited bankroll and no maximiums on their tables.
If you do not have both (one will not do) of these things then have fun with your progression system but do not tell us it will be a winner.
My trip, losing streak and all, was still profitable, not greatly but profitable.
ihate17
