supercoolmancool said:
I'd like to learn more about recognizing patterns in a shoe.
My pattern recognition, is basically a very simplified version of card-counting, without counting the cards...hense my earlier statement of possibly counting them subconciously.
The basis of counting cards is so you can determine when to press your bet (raise your units). All counting systems are pretty much the same in theory, some better depending on whether it is an advanced and expert system. The problem that I encountered, and I'm sure most,if not all, of you have encountered, was that I wanted to win
today, and because I failed to expend the necessary time required to perfect the system, I was overwhelmed....and that was a simple-count. So I lost more than I won. However, due to the times that I did win, and the fact that I enjoyed BJ, I kept going. Over a 6 to 7 year period, I slowly began noticing 'quirks' that the dealer made...this is the tells.....but you asked about patterns, so I'll move to that.
Over the same period of time that I began seeing quirks made by dealers, I began applying common-sense theory to my betting strategy, as opposed to just "feeling" like pressing the bet. This common sense is that if a certain number of tens and aces come out during one round, statistics tell us that the next round will contain less. This is much more effective in 2-deck shoes (my preference), but it works, to a lesser degree with a large shoe also.
So... say the last two guys on your left buth double down on 5's...and they both get nothing but low cards, and the rest of the table is at least equal. Then, percentages tell us that the next few cards (at least) will be higher than the average card (6.5).....if this happens a couple rounds in a row...you have a pattern...thus, you press. It is in-principle the same thing as counting, without counting.
BUT, understand this: It is not the same!!! Counting...especially advanced and expert systems, take into account the entire shoe, whereas a pattern doesn't. So.... by itself, it would do you no good, and may even lower your winning percentage. BS is a must, with certain variances depending on the dealer's card; his tells (if any); and the pattern.
If anyone is even considering doing what I do..... I would highly suggest that you fully understand the BS, and the underlying principles...and then...study tells. That is one third of my strategy, so, without it, you may lose as much as 33% of the advantage that I have found.
Personally, If I were to start all over, (being 20 again)....I would take the time to learn a simple count...then I'd master it; use it for a couple months in real-life play (not on-line...it is SOOOOO different), then I'd move onto an advanced strategy, and repeat the process. Then, if I could, I would attempt to learn an expert system. After I did all of this..
then I would add-in "tells" and patterns, and add them to my repetoire. Who knows how good I could have been? Right now...I'm satisfied with what I "earn" from the casinos now.
Good-luck.
Heath