Althought Thunder may have watched quite a bit of poker on TV, or played a decent amount, he is by no means a pro. Poker is not Blackjack. There are odds but there is in no way a right or wrong move in the vast majority of the situations. There is so much more going on in the game - table image, tendencies of other players, reads. You can't just put a scenario like that up and then say whether one move is right or wrong. That reminds me of people asking what do you do if you're first to act and you have JJ - do you raise 2x BB, 4x BB, call and then reraise a raise...there is no way to answer that correctly. If you always do the same thing then you become easy to read...your actions should vary and be somewhat dependent on the actions of others at the table. If you just sit down at the table, I think raising in the situation is a bad idea. If I want to start risking money then I'll wait till I gather some more information about the people at my table. If I've been playing for an hour, learning about the people around me, then I'm in a much better situation in decided whether to raise or fold. Moral of the story - poker is not a game with right or wrong decisions in each and every situation...too many variables (unless of course you're watching TV and seeing everyone's cards). Blackjack there is clear cut right and wrong moves, blackjack...i don't think so. By the way Thunder...do you include in the "statistical" analysis what happens if the person you're going against has an AK and an ace comes on the turn? Odds are at that point you lose whatever you brought to the table. Or if he has KQ and a queen comes...what if he caught trips and then an ace comes...lots of scenarios there where you lose big. See...not anything like BJ with correct and incorrect moves.
For all you interested in poker
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In general, yes. If your game is a typical LLHE game, 5-8 people call the flop regardless of whether the pot is raised pre-flop or not, so all you really need is a 10-15% chance of winning the pot to justify calling (depending on how aggressive they are post-flop). You generally will have these odds to call. (hey, the 772 flop will come up once in a while! 
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Actually, the furthest behind you can be is dominated. 77 (90%) vs. 72 (5%), for instance, or AA (94%) vs. A6 (6%).
If your bankroll can stomach the variance (and if you're a chunky red blackjack player you almost certainly qualify), I'd advocate starting at the highest lowest limit you can find. That is, of all the lowest limits, find the one that is highest - in Vegas, the Bellagio and Wynn have $4/$8 games which are the highest lowest limits on the Strip - and play there.
The rationale is simple - morons are dumb. Much like blackjack ploppies, morons will plop themselves down at the lowest limit table they can immediately see; if they happen to be in the Bellagio, they'll plop down at a $4/$8 table; if they happen to be in the Flamingo, they'll plop down at a $1/$2 table.
The corollary is that $4/$8 tables where $2/$4 tables are available will be (marginally) tougher than $4/$8 tables where no lower limit is available.
You want to play at the highest limit table you can, because the rake is generally 10%, capped at $5. This means that $1/$2 games are playing with a 10% rake 99% of the time, but $4/$8 games will have an average of 6-8% rake.
)Actually, the furthest behind you can be is dominated. 77 (90%) vs. 72 (5%), for instance, or AA (94%) vs. A6 (6%).
If your bankroll can stomach the variance (and if you're a chunky red blackjack player you almost certainly qualify), I'd advocate starting at the highest lowest limit you can find. That is, of all the lowest limits, find the one that is highest - in Vegas, the Bellagio and Wynn have $4/$8 games which are the highest lowest limits on the Strip - and play there.
The rationale is simple - morons are dumb. Much like blackjack ploppies, morons will plop themselves down at the lowest limit table they can immediately see; if they happen to be in the Bellagio, they'll plop down at a $4/$8 table; if they happen to be in the Flamingo, they'll plop down at a $1/$2 table.
The corollary is that $4/$8 tables where $2/$4 tables are available will be (marginally) tougher than $4/$8 tables where no lower limit is available.
You want to play at the highest limit table you can, because the rake is generally 10%, capped at $5. This means that $1/$2 games are playing with a 10% rake 99% of the time, but $4/$8 games will have an average of 6-8% rake.
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If your playing limit, it is easier to keep the pot by number of small bets and large bets. It is much easier. For no limit, just multiply the bet by the number of players that call. I found that card counting a multi-level count was much more difficult to learn than keeping up with the pot.
Canceler said:
I would think that anyone who can keep the count in BJ should be able to keep track of how many bets are in the pot, but I'm not doing too well at that, especially if I have to actually play my hand.
I'm really hoping this will get easier with practice and experience.
I'm really hoping this will get easier with practice and experience.
I used to play in some of these tournaments. I don't consider myself to be a good tournament player, but I have come in top 20 many times with up to 2000 players. Of cours it was low money. Either free tournament, or $1 tournament. I am much more successfull in no limit 1-2 and 2-5 than any other gambling game. I am averaging just over $400 per 10 Hour session.
I have walked away from about 3 tables total, because I thought the play was worse at another table. In my opinion. 1-2 and 2-5 are gold mines. Now I am from the South and play is much different than the north. People from the south call everything for no reason whatsoever.
I have walked away from about 3 tables total, because I thought the play was worse at another table. In my opinion. 1-2 and 2-5 are gold mines. Now I am from the South and play is much different than the north. People from the south call everything for no reason whatsoever.
All I know is that it has worked well for me more often than not in the casinos. I'll try to keep track of the times it happens and what the results were. You're right though that it helps to know your opponent a bit better. Sometimes I intentionally play weak at first so that the other players won't respect me and will try to bully me. Then when I get a very good hand, it's over for them.
I disagree and agree. There are many moves that are wronge whereas there could be a couple of correct moves depending on the situation. However, much of the time its calling if you have the odds. You can calculate bluffs into mathmatical equations as well and win in the long run. So I think there are many times where there is only one decision. A tell does not mean call, it only raises the odds depending on what you have.
Let say you have JJ what do you do? One technique that is to where a watch and if you have decided to raise 25% of the time, you look at you watch and if the second hand is in the first quadrant you raise, otherwise you call or check. This keeps your preflop raises completely random. The amount at which you raise can be used in the same mannor. I know that depending on the type of people playing and who is playing may alter this, but it is a good technique once you have a good evaluaiton of the table. However you are correct that is some situations - especially before the flop - there are multiple correct moves.
Let say you have JJ what do you do? One technique that is to where a watch and if you have decided to raise 25% of the time, you look at you watch and if the second hand is in the first quadrant you raise, otherwise you call or check. This keeps your preflop raises completely random. The amount at which you raise can be used in the same mannor. I know that depending on the type of people playing and who is playing may alter this, but it is a good technique once you have a good evaluaiton of the table. However you are correct that is some situations - especially before the flop - there are multiple correct moves.
OK - I agree that in some cases there are wrong moves and good moves. But it's very difficult to put a scenario out there that you could play either way depending on a situation, and say one move is correct and the rest are wrong. Things depend not only on the situation but also the players involved.
For example, there are a lot of professional players that have very different styles...you can give the same hand/same seat/same situation to Gus Hanson, Phil Hellmuth, or Doyle and they would each probably play it completely differently. Does that mean the Hanson is wrong and Doyle is right? Or that Phil Hellmuth doesn't play poker correctly? Of course not, those guys know what they're doing. But people play differently. Blackjack is math, there is only 1 correct decision, at least as far as maximizing profits, for each scenario...poker is not that way.
For example, there are a lot of professional players that have very different styles...you can give the same hand/same seat/same situation to Gus Hanson, Phil Hellmuth, or Doyle and they would each probably play it completely differently. Does that mean the Hanson is wrong and Doyle is right? Or that Phil Hellmuth doesn't play poker correctly? Of course not, those guys know what they're doing. But people play differently. Blackjack is math, there is only 1 correct decision, at least as far as maximizing profits, for each scenario...poker is not that way.
I have played thousands of hours and read at least 5 books on limit poker alone. I know about the FBI files and have read multiple books on reads. One of my good friends is a Professional poker player. He played on TV in the Wold Series of Poker, came in 3rd place and won over $250,000. He lives in Utah in a 4000 square foot home on top of a mountain, owns a condo in Vegas and LA. I talk with him regularly. And I can assure you that he agrees. Tells are a small portion of limit games. Very rarely can you bluff someone out. (of course I am talking about 3-6 and 4-8). When you get any higher than that it becomes a different game.
Example: normally at least 3 people go to the end (not always, but more times than not). If you don't have the odds to call (obviously before the river) then you don't call because chances are, 2 other people are still in it. There is very little bluffing you your part or the other players part that is successful. Now in strategic situations bluffing can be utilized, but the low limit games are more about odds than reading people.
Besides Phil Helmuth agrees (you don't have to like him, but you have to admit he is the best at hold'em or at least has the most Holdem braclets)
Example: normally at least 3 people go to the end (not always, but more times than not). If you don't have the odds to call (obviously before the river) then you don't call because chances are, 2 other people are still in it. There is very little bluffing you your part or the other players part that is successful. Now in strategic situations bluffing can be utilized, but the low limit games are more about odds than reading people.
Besides Phil Helmuth agrees (you don't have to like him, but you have to admit he is the best at hold'em or at least has the most Holdem braclets)
If you're playing 2-4, then yeah tells don't matter in limit. If you're playing 30-60, it's different. People at this level can be bluffed. And you can always fold when you know you're beat, even at 2-4.
Say you're at a low limit game with A-J. The flop comes A-3-7 rainbow. And the early position guy sees the flop, immediately looks away at his chips, starts breathing heavily, and sheepishly bets. Middle position raises with similar tells. You pitch the hand, because one of these clowns has two pair or a set. Now, without the tell, I'm 3-betting top pair in a 2-4 game.
Say you're at a low limit game with A-J. The flop comes A-3-7 rainbow. And the early position guy sees the flop, immediately looks away at his chips, starts breathing heavily, and sheepishly bets. Middle position raises with similar tells. You pitch the hand, because one of these clowns has two pair or a set. Now, without the tell, I'm 3-betting top pair in a 2-4 game.
Chances are you call in this situation anyways. Pre flop there were probably six people calling. Thats six small bets. Flop comes now you have one bettter and two callers that is now nine bets. You now should call not beause you have a pair of aces, but because your out tell you to. the payoff as o f right now is 9 to 1. You have a 20 percent chance of hitting, so you call now there are 5 big bets since the bets have now doubled. Now there is one bet, and then one call. Should you call? now the bets are 7 to 1. and you now have a ten percent chance of winning. Well yea you should call. because you know if you hit your hand that you going to have 2 callers because you know they have good hands, if not you can reraise and get at leat one to call and possible a total of 4 bets in the final round. So that is a potential of 12 to one. (don't forget your call). If you don't hit your hand, you fold and don't call the last bet. So in this case there is a right and wrong answer. You will win less money in the long run making it the wrong
answer. This decision is mathmatical
Most decisions are mathmatical. Most people don't even know it. One spot where a tell is good is when eveyone folds and there is one person to act after you. You raise. Why because you have studied him and know he is tight player. You give him a 50 percent chance of folding. He folds fifty percent of the time. So that is fifty bets after 100 times in this senario. When he does call you win half the hands. Lest say they are even payoffs for simlistic sake. He calls and at minimum you win 2 bets from him 25 percent of the time and the other 25 percent you lose 2 bets. Over 100 hands it equals out to be a plus 50 bet gain. You should raise. Still mathmaical, but a tell tilted the percentage rate at which he fold in a direction that favors you.
answer. This decision is mathmatical
Most decisions are mathmatical. Most people don't even know it. One spot where a tell is good is when eveyone folds and there is one person to act after you. You raise. Why because you have studied him and know he is tight player. You give him a 50 percent chance of folding. He folds fifty percent of the time. So that is fifty bets after 100 times in this senario. When he does call you win half the hands. Lest say they are even payoffs for simlistic sake. He calls and at minimum you win 2 bets from him 25 percent of the time and the other 25 percent you lose 2 bets. Over 100 hands it equals out to be a plus 50 bet gain. You should raise. Still mathmaical, but a tell tilted the percentage rate at which he fold in a direction that favors you.