Giving it a rest

[Midwestern]

Poker is a far more interesting game from the mathematical side.

Yes i agree that the human element of poker add a level of randomness not in bj, but who the heck has patience to play 15 hands an hour?!?

I was speaking with a grad of MIT who majored in applied math (himself a poker player who paid off all college debts with the hobby).... I asked him if he knew of any current BJ teams at school or if he had any friends who AP'd.
His response was beautiful:
" the only reason the guys in the 80s and 90s did it is because there was a possibility to make SERIOUS money from it. Casinos had their guard down. Not anymore. The obvious player advantage is gone for the most part and it's so much easier to play a game where the money is easier to come by and the casinos don't care if you win."

Im sure he didnt mean to say that APs are dinosaurs, but I'm sure the poker explosion in 2003 really made the game alot more profitable for skilled players as more money was brought into the game than ever before. Therefore there was no reason to AP when poker fish were jumping into your
Lap.

I partially agree with the assessment, but disagree on the motivation. Although i play bj with a profit motive, there's nothing more Satisfying than being "that guy" that can walk into a Casino and walk out with more than he came in with... CONSISTENTLY. that's what I get a rush from, that's why I'm into AP. The fact that there's A beatable game out there, but so few actually put the time in to learn how to play it well.... I enjoy being one of the few and the proud.

I wonder if blackjack will have a "2nd wind" now that online poker is
Banned in the US.

 

[Gamblor]

I will tell you a story to make you feel better because misery likes company.

This morning I lost 75% of my max bets, which is very unusually high. It is a DD game which I won 9 of my last 10 trips and the dealer claims it is the most popular (and best) game in the east coast.

Anyway, after losing 5 straight max bet in the last 30 minutes, an opportunity approached. Dealer has dealt 1.25 decks and I have only seen 2 aces, so the remaining 0.75 deck is super ace rich. The running count is +14. That transforms to +19 TC. To recoup all my losses, I bet 16 units. (My max bet for this game was 8 units.) I got 20. (Joy!) All other 6 players got 13, 14 or 15. (Feel sad for my fellow APs.) The dealer's upcard was an Ace (Sad! Really Sad!!) Dealer asked if anyone wanted to buy Insurance. Are you nuts? TC was +19. I spent another 8 units to buy insurance. The other 3 APs also did it as well.

It is not a TEN. "F*ck!" One AP couldn't contain himself and cursed after losing 12 units on this hand. All other six players (it is a full table) chose to hit even I wanted to scream to some of them, "Surrender! Surrender! Surrender is the correct play for most of the index plays." Oddly enough, all six of them got a face card to bust their hands eventually, after some of them got an ace first. The running count was down to +2. TC was now only +4.

Dealer turned his down card over. It was another ace. Then slowly he drew another card. It is a ten. Now I am happy. There is 84% of the chance I will won this hand, 8% to tie, only 8% to lose if the next card is a nine.

Dealer drew another card. It was nine.

This is nuts. Was the whole PC ans surveillance team asleep during this game?

 

[aslan]

"Come home to the Zone." z:laugh:g

Ps - Traffic is up substantially since you departed, more than it ever was here, but
we haven't yet regained the full quality of discussion once enjoyed by many here. zg

I would not call a place a home where war is openly declared on civil discourse. Nor would I term what we once had as "full quality of discussion." What passes for open discussion (if that's what you mean), when punctuated by hateful speech and invective, is a kind of "liberty" I would not be willing to die for. The Zen Zone is a war zone, and I do not fancy myself a warrior, more a peacemaker (not appease-maker). Being that discretion is the better part of valor, I must discreetly decline your invitation. A:laugh:Z

 

[boneuphtoner]

For those folks like me who are strictly recreational players and who have no intention of ever using BJ as a source of money that is important to them, the following post a couple of years ago by Kewljason should be required reading:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=14895

I've simmed this, and even for 8 deckers, this is a winning strategy. You won't win much, but the fluctuation will be far less and it doesn't take a huge bankroll to survive a long time playing this way. According to my sims with a small bankroll and wonging out at HiLo -2 and below, a 1-3 spread gives the best compromise of ROR and win rate compared to a 1-2 spread. So that's what I do, and the games are far more enjoyable and less stressful!

 

[Canceler]

404 Not Found

Maybe you could try again with that link.

 

[zengrifter]

I thought better of stirring the pot, and decided to return your big stirring spoon. :laugh:

Touché! Some things are best left to real pros. zg

 

[boneuphtoner]

Sorry....see corrected link, hopefully this works:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=14895

 

[zengrifter]

I would not call a place a home where war is openly declared on civil discourse. Nor would I term what we once had as "full quality of discussion." What passes for open discussion (if that's what you mean), when punctuated by hateful speech and invective, is a kind of "liberty" I would not be willing to die for. The Zen Zone is a war zone, and I do not fancy myself a warrior, more a peacemaker (not appease-maker). Being that discretion is the better part of valor, I must discreetly decline your invitation. A:laugh:Z

Don't go there.:cry: Zzone was much more unruly back when you actively campaigned to keep it here at BJINFO.
Now it has become a kinder-gentler Zone. zg

 

[fwb]

I'm giving card counting a rest for a while. I am really tired of the roller coaster and short run high risk.

Welcome to the club, the unfortunate way even the best counters of today go out (even my stubborn self). Well, this is how advanced strategies were born.

Do you keep a rough estimate of how many hands you've played? I'd like to guess you are around the 80k mark (about 800-1000 hours depending on conditions).

 

[aslan]

Yes i agree that the human element of poker add a level of randomness not in bj, but who the heck has patience to play 15 hands an hour?!?

I was speaking with a grad of MIT who majored in applied math (himself a poker player who paid off all college debts with the hobby).... I asked him if he knew of any current BJ teams at school or if he had any friends who AP'd.
His response was beautiful:
" the only reason the guys in the 80s and 90s did it is because there was a possibility to make SERIOUS money from it. Casinos had their guard down. Not anymore. The obvious player advantage is gone for the most part and it's so much easier to play a game where the money is easier to come by and the casinos don't care if you win."

Im sure he didnt mean to say that APs are dinosaurs, but I'm sure the poker explosion in 2003 really made the game alot more profitable for skilled players as more money was brought into the game than ever before. Therefore there was no reason to AP when poker fish were jumping into your
Lap.

I partially agree with the assessment, but disagree on the motivation. Although i play bj with a profit motive, there's nothing more Satisfying than being "that guy" that can walk into a Casino and walk out with more than he came in with... CONSISTENTLY. that's what I get a rush from, that's why I'm into AP. The fact that there's A beatable game out there, but so few actually put the time in to learn how to play it well.... I enjoy being one of the few and the proud.

I wonder if blackjack will have a "2nd wind" now that online poker is
Banned in the US.

I too like the fact of winning consistently, and in fact, make it a point where possible to stay until I win. Consequently, I have very few losing sessions, because would-be losing sessions are all rolled up and buried in some of those extra long sessions. Still, I do find it necessary to put a limit on those extra long sessions, because unlimited sessions can lead to some extra large losses. The body, and especially the mind, need to recuperate, get all the cobwebs out. You need to get the spring back in your step.

But after umpteen bouts with the bane of all card counters, negative variance at max bet, the rush of winning has become less and less sufficient to overcome the low win rate in comparison to the high risk of short term loss. Even though I know I will win over the long haul, I have acquired less and less tolerance for large short term losses, which were often many times larger than average wins. My last trip illustrated that perfectly. Over a twenty hour period, I might rightfully expect to win $500 to $1,000. However, over the same period of time, I might well risk the loss of an entire trip bankroll, say, $5,000. It nearly happened this last trip, and it has happened at times in the past, even without any "over-betting" behavior (not necessarily $5,000, but large amounts).

It ceases to be "recreational" after a while when faced with these recurring wide swings. OTOH, I would have far more tolerance of the inevitable swings if I were card counting for a living. Then, at least, I could expect to reach the long term much more quickly on average. You need not remind me of the exceptions to this rule wherein negative variance persists over exceptionally long periods. And lastly, there is the fact that as a recreational player, I prefer not to be sucked into long and grueling bouts with the casinos, occupying much more of my time than the term recreational generally conjures up, at least in my mind.

Card counting is a well thought out advantage play, but I think it may be more appealing to the young and those of a more adventuresome bent. I intend to sit on the sidelines, just dabbling enough to draw out the recreational aspects of the game, but perfectly satisfied to break even, which to me is a win if I derive pleasure from the social interaction and pick up a few comps to boot.

 

[swamper]

I too like the fact of winning consistently, and in fact, make it a point where possible to stay until I win. Consequently, I have very few losing sessions, because would-be losing sessions are all rolled up and buried in some of those extra long sessions. Still, I do find it necessary to put a limit on those extra long sessions, because unlimited sessions can lead to some extra large losses. The body, and especially the mind, need to recuperate, get all the cobwebs out. You need to get the spring back in your step.

But after umpteen bouts with the bane of all card counters, negative variance at max bet, the rush of winning has become less and less sufficient to overcome the low win rate in comparison to the high risk of short term loss. Even though I know I will win over the long haul, I have acquired less and less tolerance for large short term losses, which were often many times larger than average wins. My last trip illustrated that perfectly. Over a twenty hour period, I might rightfully expect to win $500 to $1,000. However, over the same period of time, I might well risk the loss of an entire trip bankroll, say, $5,000. It nearly happened this last trip, and it has happened at times in the past, even without any "over-betting" behavior (not necessarily $5,000, but large amounts).

It ceases to be "recreational" after a while when faced with these recurring wide swings. OTOH, I would have far more tolerance of the inevitable swings if I were card counting for a living. Then, at least, I could expect to reach the long term much more quickly on average. You need not remind me of the exceptions to this rule wherein negative variance persists over exceptionally long periods. And lastly, there is the fact that as a recreational player, I prefer not to be sucked into long and grueling bouts with the casinos, occupying much more of my time than the term recreational generally conjures up, at least in my mind.

Card counting is a well thought out advantage play, but I think it may be more appealing to the young and those of a more adventuresome bent. I intend to sit on the sidelines, just dabbling enough to draw out the recreational aspects of the game, but perfectly satisfied to break even, which to me is a win if I derive pleasure from the social interaction and pick up a few comps to boot.

Aslan, I really appreciate what you just wrote. Thanks for sharing that.

 

[gamblingghost]

Good luck Mr. Aslan

I will always look forward to reading your comments.

 

[aslan]

Don't go there.:cry: Zzone was much more unruly back when you actively campaigned to keep it here at BJINFO.
Now it has become a kinder-gentler Zone. zg

...said the spider to the fly. :laugh:

 

[aslan]

Welcome to the club, the unfortunate way even the best counters of today go out (even my stubborn self). Well, this is how advanced strategies were born.

Do you keep a rough estimate of how many hands you've played? I'd like to guess you are around the 80k mark (about 800-1000 hours depending on conditions).

No, sorry, I did not keep track of how many hands I played.

 

[aslan]

My First Attempt at Blackjack for Fun

I just got back from an overnighter in AC. My objective was to see how well I could do without spreading more than 2 or 3 times. I played $25 6-deck S17. Within a few hours I was up $700. I earned another $100 playing VP.

But I couldn't sleep more than half an hour or so, so I went back to the tables. But first I found my buddy. He was playing a Star Wars machine and making it look easy as he racked up $350+ in profit. So, in a temporary moment of insanity, I proceeded to lose $300 at the same game. Back to the tables!

It went back and forth for several hours, and at one point late in the morning I found myself down $700 overall. Next thing you know I was spreading two hands to $125 each, still a far cry from 8, 10, or 12 times. I got back to $400 loser, and decided to switch tables.

Next thing I know I'm on a $50 table. I thought it was a $25 table. :laugh: So I put $25 into two boxes as markers, just as a lady next to me started to put $25 into one of the boxes I was playing. This is interesting-- the dealer finished shuffling and then pointed out to me, with my $25 in each box, that this was a $50 table. Oh! So I pushed out two more $25, but the lady next to me said that it was her box and that I was taking her $25. WTF? I asserted that it was mine and that she had pulled hers back when I beat her to the box. She was adamant and so the dealer said, "I can tell you whose box it is." She asked the lady to pass her her chips, which she had just bought in. She counted the chips, $300, and told the lady, "The box belongs to the gentleman; you have all your chips."

So we began playing, the lady I felt was constantly looking to see how her "lost" spot would fare. This was the craziest shoe ever. I kept getting blackjack, not mostly in her box, but maybe 5 or 6 times during the shoe. One guy at the table kept informing the table how many blackjacks I was getting (naturally - there's one at every table :flame. Plus, I was winning hand after hand with the most unlikely hands. I kept glancing at the lady's sole hand, and I doubt she won more than a single hand. I was doing my best internally not to "wish" any back luck on her. :angel: Quickly she busted and left the game.

In one shoe, from $400 loser I was now $200 winner, I spotted another table completing the shuffle so I quickly colored up and switched to the other table (also, $50). I sat next to a Hasidic Jew. Second hand we both got blackjacks. I said to him," I guess that makes us brothers." He smiled and later noted how we continued to get similar hands. He whispered to me that this particular dealer was great: he always either busted or he got lousy hands. :laugh: Quickly I won $400 and jumped up and said I had to go. He looked at me slyly, I thought, and said, "Hit and run, eh?" I laughed and headed out $600 up for the trip. I don't think he was AP, probably just well read.

Anyway, I had a great time, and I discovered it was possible to win without the large spreads. But even though the variance seems more controlled, its still a war of nerves when you give up most of your advantage. Also, wonging out becomes a greater necessity than before; at least in these NME games, you don't have to leave for long, because once you stop playing a shoe, you're out for the remainder of the shoe. That's convenient. :devil:

Lastly, I think I would have won more like $2,000 had I spread 8 to 10 times at max bet, but the swings would have been much wider. That wild swing is what I am trying to dampen. Does anyone have an analysis of the difference in variance between spreading 10 times and spreading an average 2 to 3 times? If I don't get an answer I'll run some sims myself and let you know.

 

[Coyote]

Thanks for sharing that story Aslan. That was an excellent read!

 

[sagefr0g]

I just got back from an overnighter in AC. My objective was to see how well I could do without spreading more than 2 or 3 times. I played $25 6-deck S17. Within a few hours I was up $700. I earned another $100 playing VP.

But I couldn't sleep more than half an hour or so, so I went back to the tables. But first I found my buddy. He was playing a Star Wars machine and making it look easy as he racked up $350+ in profit. So, in a temporary moment of insanity, I proceeded to lose $300 at the same game. Back to the tables!

It went back and forth for several hours, and at one point late in the morning I found myself down $700 overall. Next thing you know I was spreading two hands to $125 each, still a far cry from 8, 10, or 12 times. I got back to $400 loser, and decided to switch tables.

Next thing I know I'm on a $50 table. I thought it was a $25 table. :laugh: So I put $25 into two boxes as markers, just as a lady next to me started to put $25 into one of the boxes I was playing. This is interesting-- the dealer finished shuffling and then pointed out to me, with my $25 in each box, that this was a $50 table. Oh! So I pushed out two more $25, but the lady next to me said that it was her box and that I was taking her $25. WTF? I asserted that it was mine and that she had pulled hers back when I beat her to the box. She was adamant and so the dealer said, "I can tell you whose box it is." She asked the lady to pass her her chips, which she had just bought in. She counted the chips, $300, and told the lady, "The box belongs to the gentleman; you have all your chips."

So we began playing, the lady I felt was constantly looking to see how her "lost" spot would fare. This was the craziest shoe ever. I kept getting blackjack, not mostly in her box, but maybe 5 or 6 times during the shoe. One guy at the table kept informing the table how many blackjacks I was getting (naturally - there's one at every table :flame. Plus, I was winning hand after hand with the most unlikely hands. I kept glancing at the lady's sole hand, and I doubt she won more than a single hand. I was doing my best internally not to "wish" any back luck on her. :angel: Quickly she busted and left the game.

In one shoe, from $400 loser I was now $200 winner, I spotted another table completing the shuffle so I quickly colored up and switched to the other table (also, $50). I sat next to a Hasidic Jew. Second hand we both got blackjacks. I said to him," I guess that makes us brothers." He smiled and later noted how we continued to get similar hands. He whispered to me that this particular dealer was great: he always either busted or he got lousy hands. :laugh: Quickly I won $400 and jumped up and said I had to go. He looked at me slyly, I thought, and said, "Hit and run, eh?" I laughed and headed out $600 up for the trip. I don't think he was AP, probably just well read.

Anyway, I had a great time, and I discovered it was possible to win without the large spreads. But even though the variance seems more controlled, its still a war of nerves when you give up most of your advantage. Also, wonging out becomes a greater necessity than before; at least in these NME games, you don't have to leave for long, because once you stop playing a shoe, you're out for the remainder of the shoe. That's convenient. :devil:

Lastly, I think I would have won more like $2,000 had I spread 8 to 10 times at max bet, but the swings would have been much wider. That wild swing is what I am trying to dampen. Does anyone have an analysis of the difference in variance between spreading 10 times and spreading an average 2 to 3 times? If I don't get an answer I'll run some sims myself and let you know.

what happened to playing the nickle tables?

well anyway, yeah you should run a sim for the specific game, imho.
but i took a quick look comparing various 'low' spreads for a different game....
the most interesting thing i found was there is a rather dramatic 'phase' change point for which 'lifetime' ROR goes from near nothing ~0% to 2.3%. ....... i didn't try an analyze 'trip' or 'session' ROR, but that would be interesting....... whatever, for this particular game the 'phase' change point for the dramatic ROR increase was 0%ROR for a spread of 1:4 or higher and 2.3%ROR for a spread of 1:3......... drop down to a spread of 1:2 and the lifetime ROR jumps to 100%, lol.....
far as the spread and this particular game (different from your game, nickle game & different rules, different bankroll), below is how spreading went for standard deviation per hand in the long run:

.........[U]spread[/U].................  [U]standard dev[/U]
         1                   $5.76/hand
         2                   $7.69/hand
         3                   $9.06/hand
         4                   $10.69/hand
         5                   $12.47/hand
         6                   $13.50/hand
         7                   $14.62/hand
         8                   $15.81/hand

 

[Machinist]

Ladies and gentlemen our brother Aslan has a problem. Like Sagefrog said, what the hech happened to the nickle tables. And for that matter the quarter tables!!!!. Ya had to play a 50$ table to "get even"??
This was a fun trip?? Reading it I felt I was on Mr Toads wild ride!!!!
Starwars???? Geeze 300 bucks??? 300 bucks to me is still a lot of money,,,,
That's like a fill and a half of diesel fuel in my truck....
Here's a suggestion Aslan, bring 500 bucks with ya and play nickles, heck maybe 300 would do it.
Me thinks this sounded more like a "gambling trip" than an AP trip.
But hey,,,,,ya couldn't sleep soooooooooooo

Mac

 

[bjcount]

Aslan wants to play but also keep his spread down... as well as the variance. I think playing $50min at NME tables and wonging out justifies a lower spread providing he's out at earlier than tc=0 plus playing 2 hands helps to lower the variance even more.

Besides... at some point in your life you dont want to waste your time at nickels especially if you dont want to spread big. I mean think about it playing two hands at $5 bucks and then jumping to 2x $200+ will light up the pit....and then wong out too? Conditions and dealers are ususally better at higher tables but hey ... anything can exist in these times.

Keep it cool and comfy Aslan.... and the rest will surely be more enjoyable....

BJC

 

[aslan]

what happened to playing the nickle tables?

well anyway, yeah you should run a sim for the specific game, imho.
but i took a quick look comparing various 'low' spreads for a different game....
the most interesting thing i found was there is a rather dramatic 'phase' change point for which 'lifetime' ROR goes from near nothing ~0% to 2.3%. ....... i didn't try an analyze 'trip' or 'session' ROR, but that would be interesting....... whatever, for this particular game the 'phase' change point for the dramatic ROR increase was 0%ROR for a spread of 1:4 or higher and 2.3%ROR for a spread of 1:3......... drop down to a spread of 1:2 and the lifetime ROR jumps to 100%, lol.....
far as the spread and this particular game (different from your game, nickle game & different rules, different bankroll), below is how spreading went for standard deviation per hand in the long run:

.........[U]spread[/U].................  [U]standard dev[/U]
         1                   $5.76/hand
         2                   $7.69/hand
         3                   $9.06/hand
         4                   $10.69/hand
         5                   $12.47/hand
         6                   $13.50/hand
         7                   $14.62/hand
         8                   $15.81/hand

Man, I don't like the sound of that 100% RoR. Does that mean that I have no, zero, nada, 0% chance of succeeding? Dang! That seems pretty doggone serious if you ask me. Did the sim factor in that I skedaddle when the count goes south and I also use the basic index plays? I think I can live with a 2.6% risk of ruin... but let me ask you, what bankroll amount was that based on? If $500, I could care less. If $5,000 or $10,000 or $25,000, then I am in that deep, stinky stuff for sure.