happy hour blackjack! what would odds on this be?

[zengrifter]

Well, technically your BR is too small even for this game... SO you will resign yourself to a high RoR. Sonny might run your RoR, but I would etimate it at 30+% on the following bet schedule:

-1< 5
0> 10
+1-+2> 15
+3-+4> 20
+5> 25

If you are prepared to replenish the BR if required the RoR will drop substantially.

Unless you are not prepared to "gamble" the combination of low BR and excellent game opportunity requires the high RoR. I say take the shot.

If somehow you can avoid a significant % of neg-counts you could bet thusly:

-1< 0
0> 5
+1-+2> 10
+3-+4> 20
+5> 25


zg

 

[Quinc]

thanks zg! also what is r.o.r?

 

[ScottH]

thanks zg! also what is r.o.r?

risk of ruin

 

[zengrifter]

RoR is the chance of doubling the BR vs. tapping it out. In card-counting a 70% chance of doubling vs. a 30% chance of busting out is considered high-risk. But when the BR is very low, and the game is very good, its worth the risk... and unavoidable, except not to play. zg

 

[Mikeaber]

RoR is the chance of doubling the BR vs. tapping it out. In card-counting a 70% chance of doubling vs. a 30% chance of busting out is considered high-risk. But when the BR is very low, and the game is very good, its worth the risk... and unavoidable, except not to play. zg

That's probably a pretty darn close guess ZG. For DD, $5 min and $500 BR yeilds 36% ROR. I don't know how much the circus rules reduce that percentage. For $1000 on a DD game $5 min, the ROR would drop down to around <20%. I've got to get that book! (BJ Attack).

 

[bj bob]

Refining the question

Since you boys are calculating RoR for this Reno game. What would you say would be a decent BR just for the "Hour" since that's the time limit here.For example, say you're betting the $5 min and maxing @$10 to take full advantage of the "freebees" and playing the one hour/day for the 5 day week? Thanks BJ

 

[zengrifter]

For DD, $5 min and $500 BR yeilds 36% ROR. I don't know how much the circus rules reduce that percentage.

Probably below 20% I'd guesstimate. zg

 

[Cass]

Since you boys are calculating RoR for this Reno game. What would you say would be a decent BR just for the "Hour" since that's the time limit here.For example, say you're betting the $5 min and maxing @$10 to take full advantage of the "freebees" and playing the one hour/day for the 5 day week? Thanks BJ

With a $300BR you ROr would be around 1%

 

[zengrifter]

No higher, maybe 10% zg

 

[bj bob]

So therefore:

You are saying that if I bring , say $500/day BR to the table(assuming 100 hands max. per day) I would stand to lose that particular daily bankroll less than one day in ten. Am I getting that right?

 

[Quinc]

alright big day is tommorow or morning.. anyway i'll be practing my count tonight and tommorow with breakfast. wish me luck. also if anyone has any last minute advice let me know. oh and i'm cashing my check there so i will get a free ace in the hole woohoo.

 

[zengrifter]

alright big day is tommorow or morning.. anyway i'll be practing my count tonight and tommorow with breakfast. wish me luck. also if anyone has any last minute advice let me know. oh and i'm cashing my check there so i will get a free ace in the hole woohoo.

Do I need to tell you that you bet the max-25 on the free Ace? (with 300 total BR it would be correct to bet 100 on a free Ace) zg

 

[Cass]

No higher, maybe 10% zg

Assuming the game has a .35% advantage off the top. Spreading $5-10. 1unit at all counts +1 and below. 2units at counts of +2 or more. Play all, slow 60 hands/hr pace since the table will probably be full. 5hours of total play, BJRM calculates a ROR of .01% for a $500 BR! In order to go bust you would have to lose 50 top bets w/o winning a hand! I've only lost more than 20 top bets a few times in single sessions....

 

[Quinc]

Do I need to tell you that you bet the max-25 on the free Ace? (with 300 total BR it would be correct to bet 100 on a free Ace) zg

i wish but most they will let you bet with the free ace is 5$...

 

[Quinc]

my review

ok so i finaly went and played, And this is what happend. I saw 3 suited b.js get dealt and 1 suited 678 got dealt where i won a 5$ bonus. i never got a suited bj or any bonus. the only bonus i got was from someone else getting the 678 suited. Other then that i was getting counts of +5 and even up to +6 and getting 18 19 and 20's dealt to me but so was the dealer.. so i switched tables and started doubling on anything i had 11 or below vs a dealers 3-6 or if i had a 8-9-10 i would double vs a dealers 7-8 well thats where i won all my money i ended up winning 160$ in one hour. would have been more but i was tipping. "cover" i dont think doubling on an A3 is all that common. oh i also was able to switch out my "6" in a 10 6 hand 3 times 2 of which i won.

inconclusion i started with 100$ won 160$ in one hour, maybe made an extra 30$ because of the happy bj rules. all in all i won all my money off being able to double on any hand. also the pit boss was one cool motha fuker.. he saved me 20$! i lost, then dealer messed up forgot to deal a card so the pit gave my money back. and even if the dealer didn't mess up i still would have lost.. also the guy he messed up on got to still play his hand and when he lost the pit called it a push and let him keep his money.

any questions?

 

[zengrifter]

**Things I don't understand!

**Things I don't understand!

Other then that i was getting counts of +5 and even up to +6 and getting 18 19 and 20's dealt to me but so was the dealer.. so i switched tables

**You do not state a good reason for switching.

and started doubling on anything i had 11 or below vs a dealers 3-6

**"Anything 11 or below"?

or if i had a 8-9-10 i would double vs a dealers 7-8

**Double 8-9 vs. 7-8?

well thats where i won all my money i ended up winning 160$ in one hour. would have been more but i was tipping. "cover"

**"Tipping for cover"?? What the f**k is that!?

i dont think doubling on an A3 is all that common.

**Whats your point?

inconclusion i started with 100$ won 160$ in one hour, maybe made an extra 30$ because of the happy bj rules. all in all i won all my money off being able to double on any hand.

**Including when not appropriate!! zg

 

[Cass]

ok so i finaly went and played, And this is what happend. I saw 3 suited b.js get dealt and 1 suited 678 got dealt where i won a 5$ bonus. i never got a suited bj or any bonus. the only bonus i got was from someone else getting the 678 suited. Other then that i was getting counts of +5 and even up to +6 and getting 18 19 and 20's dealt to me but so was the dealer.. so i switched tables and started doubling on anything i had 11 or below vs a dealers 3-6 or if i had a 8-9-10 i would double vs a dealers 7-8 well thats where i won all my money i ended up winning 160$ in one hour. would have been more but i was tipping. "cover" i dont think doubling on an A3 is all that common. oh i also was able to switch out my "6" in a 10 6 hand 3 times 2 of which i won.

inconclusion i started with 100$ won 160$ in one hour, maybe made an extra 30$ because of the happy bj rules. all in all i won all my money off being able to double on any hand. also the pit boss was one cool motha fuker.. he saved me 20$! i lost, then dealer messed up forgot to deal a card so the pit gave my money back. and even if the dealer didn't mess up i still would have lost.. also the guy he messed up on got to still play his hand and when he lost the pit called it a push and let him keep his money.

any questions?

It sounds like you werent playing proper bs at all unless im missing something. DD on a3 isnt that common, but it is correct vs dealer showing 5 or 6. Where I play people DD on A2, and A3 on dealer showing 2-6 regularly. They yell at me when i dont double it.

 

[Quinc]

**Things I don't understand!

Other then that i was getting counts of +5 and even up to +6 and getting 18 19 and 20's dealt to me but so was the dealer.. so i switched tables

**You do not state a good reason for switching.

well 2 times i had 20 and dealer dealt herself either a 20 or 21 even with a 6 upcard. even with my good hands she was always getting better. and it ended up being a great move.

and started doubling on anything i had 11 or below vs a dealers 3-6

**"Anything 11 or below"? yeah if the dealer had a bad up card

or if i had a 8-9-10 i would double vs a dealers 7-8

**Double 8-9 vs. 7-8?

well thats where i won all my money i ended up winning 160$ in one hour. would have been more but i was tipping. "cover"

**"Tipping for cover"?? What the f**k is that!? well when your splitting 10's and doubling on 5's and 4's i dont want the dealer calling the pit over. also she was dealing down to about 10 cards left in the deck.
i dont think doubling on an A3 is all that common.

**Whats your point?

inconclusion i started with 100$ won 160$ in one hour, maybe made an extra 30$ because of the happy bj rules. all in all i won all my money off being able to double on any hand.

**Including when not appropriate!! zg

...........................................

 

[Quinc]

It sounds like you werent playing proper bs at all unless im missing something. DD on a3 isnt that common, but it is correct vs dealer showing 5 or 6. Where I play people DD on A2, and A3 on dealer showing 2-6 regularly. They yell at me when i dont double it.

i was going off what i learned in ken ustons million dollar blackjack.

 

[zengrifter]

i was going off what i learned in ken ustons million dollar blackjack.

What exactly are you referring to? Please, each item I questioned. zg