happy hour blackjack! what would odds on this be?
- Thread starter Quinc
- Start date
The problem with trends is that they are not predictable. Just because the dealer busted several times doesn’t mean that they will continue to bust. You never know if they will continue of not.
In fact, the truth is that there are no trends at all! Our human minds are always trying to make sense out of randomness. Our minds are designed to “figure things out.“ We sometimes impose “patterns” or “streaks” on things that are inherently random and unpredictable. When the results stop conforming to this imaginary system we have developed, we say “Oh, the streak must be over now” but in reality it was never there to begin with. It was all just a figment of our imagination.
No. In fact, I wouldn’t bet at all because the house still has the advantage! No matter what bet I make, I should expect to lose 5.26% of my money.
This is where the “trend” and “streak” players get into trouble. Half of them will say “Red is on a streak! Keep betting red!” while the other half say “Red was on a streak so now it should come up black!” They don’t even agree on how to use these streaks that they find! Many of them would have switched to black after 10 reds came up, or 20, or 40. Those poor “streak” players would have gone broke by the 50th spin. That is because the “trends” are completely unpredictable and therefore do not offer us any advantage. Hell, if I knew that the next 50 spins were going to be red I would bet everything I had! But I don’t, and neither do you. Nobody does.
In reality, there is no advantage to betting on either red or black in that situation. The odds do not change, and the house still has those two green spots that will take everybody's money. Both outcomes are equally likely to occur on the next spin, and the house edge is still the same as it is on every other spin. There is absolutely no intelligent reason to think otherwise.
This goes back to the “crashing your car” analogy. If you continue to break the rules then you should expect to pay the price. Maybe you will get “lucky” and only get a ticket for blowing through the stop sign, but if you continue to make the same mistakes for long enough then you will definitely crash your car and possibly die. Making bad decisions in blackjack may results in a few extra wins here and there, but you will eventually start to pay for your mistakes. You may only lose your winnings back, but if you play long enough then you will definitely go broke. That is a fact. Even playing perfect BS will lead to going broke, just much slower.
My advise is to either quit while you’re ahead or learn to play properly. It’s really none of my business so feel free to tell me to buzz off, but this website is designed to help people become better players. You have gotten a lot of advise from many different people here, all for free! If you are not going to listen to us, please don’t waste our time by asking for our help. We are more than happy to help you, if you let us.
-Sonny-
In fact, the truth is that there are no trends at all! Our human minds are always trying to make sense out of randomness. Our minds are designed to “figure things out.“ We sometimes impose “patterns” or “streaks” on things that are inherently random and unpredictable. When the results stop conforming to this imaginary system we have developed, we say “Oh, the streak must be over now” but in reality it was never there to begin with. It was all just a figment of our imagination.
No. In fact, I wouldn’t bet at all because the house still has the advantage! No matter what bet I make, I should expect to lose 5.26% of my money.
This is where the “trend” and “streak” players get into trouble. Half of them will say “Red is on a streak! Keep betting red!” while the other half say “Red was on a streak so now it should come up black!” They don’t even agree on how to use these streaks that they find! Many of them would have switched to black after 10 reds came up, or 20, or 40. Those poor “streak” players would have gone broke by the 50th spin. That is because the “trends” are completely unpredictable and therefore do not offer us any advantage. Hell, if I knew that the next 50 spins were going to be red I would bet everything I had! But I don’t, and neither do you. Nobody does.
In reality, there is no advantage to betting on either red or black in that situation. The odds do not change, and the house still has those two green spots that will take everybody's money. Both outcomes are equally likely to occur on the next spin, and the house edge is still the same as it is on every other spin. There is absolutely no intelligent reason to think otherwise.
This goes back to the “crashing your car” analogy. If you continue to break the rules then you should expect to pay the price. Maybe you will get “lucky” and only get a ticket for blowing through the stop sign, but if you continue to make the same mistakes for long enough then you will definitely crash your car and possibly die. Making bad decisions in blackjack may results in a few extra wins here and there, but you will eventually start to pay for your mistakes. You may only lose your winnings back, but if you play long enough then you will definitely go broke. That is a fact. Even playing perfect BS will lead to going broke, just much slower.
My advise is to either quit while you’re ahead or learn to play properly. It’s really none of my business so feel free to tell me to buzz off, but this website is designed to help people become better players. You have gotten a lot of advise from many different people here, all for free! If you are not going to listen to us, please don’t waste our time by asking for our help. We are more than happy to help you, if you let us.
-Sonny-
Wow! Sonny,that was heavy!!!
Sounds like you just walked out of a Kirkegaard Phil.103 class. There's a vaguely familiar tune to your comment about the existance/not existance of streaks.Yes,it's coming back to me now!....First there is a mountain then there is no mountain then there is...Mathematically, I cannot argue the point.You are quite correct in explaining independent trials. I guess what we perceive in life as well as in the casino are trends.That's what makes Vegas etc.so damn exciting!! Imagine how boring Caesar's or Harrah's would be if a seven came out on the craps table exactly every 6th roll(I'd live on that back line!) and what about the roulette wheel that went odd/even every other spin? Mathematically it works out that way,but in reality these occurances are randomized so our "perception" kicks in and human nature tries to "capture" the pattern.In relating all of this "philosophy" to down to earth card counting what I'm trying to say is that we all still have to live with "streaks" just look at how many threads here cover the topic of RoR. Ruin can only occur after a long losing streak and hence the need for sufficient bankrolls, max. Kelly bets etc. and yes,in all,your point on betting hot hunch streaks gets a thumbs-up from me.
Sounds like you just walked out of a Kirkegaard Phil.103 class. There's a vaguely familiar tune to your comment about the existance/not existance of streaks.Yes,it's coming back to me now!....First there is a mountain then there is no mountain then there is...Mathematically, I cannot argue the point.You are quite correct in explaining independent trials. I guess what we perceive in life as well as in the casino are trends.That's what makes Vegas etc.so damn exciting!! Imagine how boring Caesar's or Harrah's would be if a seven came out on the craps table exactly every 6th roll(I'd live on that back line!) and what about the roulette wheel that went odd/even every other spin? Mathematically it works out that way,but in reality these occurances are randomized so our "perception" kicks in and human nature tries to "capture" the pattern.In relating all of this "philosophy" to down to earth card counting what I'm trying to say is that we all still have to live with "streaks" just look at how many threads here cover the topic of RoR. Ruin can only occur after a long losing streak and hence the need for sufficient bankrolls, max. Kelly bets etc. and yes,in all,your point on betting hot hunch streaks gets a thumbs-up from me.
wha? ^
ok ok now i'm just arguing for the sake of arguing. so lets look at it this way, i now have any extra 200$ in my b.r.
any of those sims come up with a strategy on how to play this? or just stick with basic b.s.? hopefully i will get back there this tuesday and it wont be packed because of this thread... and zg if your there i'll let you buy me a beer.
ok ok now i'm just arguing for the sake of arguing. so lets look at it this way, i now have any extra 200$ in my b.r.
any of those sims come up with a strategy on how to play this? or just stick with basic b.s.? hopefully i will get back there this tuesday and it wont be packed because of this thread... and zg if your there i'll let you buy me a beer.
Quinc said:
wha? ^
ok ok now i'm just arguing for the sake of arguing. so lets look at it this way, i now have any extra 200$ in my b.r.
any of those sims come up with a strategy on how to play this? or just stick with basic b.s.? hopefully i will get back there this tuesday and it wont be packed because of this thread... and zg if your there i'll let you buy me a beer.
ok ok now i'm just arguing for the sake of arguing. so lets look at it this way, i now have any extra 200$ in my b.r.
any of those sims come up with a strategy on how to play this? or just stick with basic b.s.? hopefully i will get back there this tuesday and it wont be packed because of this thread... and zg if your there i'll let you buy me a beer.
Stick to BS
Just stick to the proper BS. I would suggest that you count as well, but card counting will not help you if you do not play accurate BS. In fact, you will lose more money because you will be misplaying hands with larger bets.
For now, just go back and study BS. Make sure that you know it and can play properly like second nature. Once you can handle that you might consider counting, but don't get ahead of yourself. You can still expect to win a little bit of money playing BS so just focus on that for now.
-Sonny-
Just stick to the proper BS. I would suggest that you count as well, but card counting will not help you if you do not play accurate BS. In fact, you will lose more money because you will be misplaying hands with larger bets.
For now, just go back and study BS. Make sure that you know it and can play properly like second nature. Once you can handle that you might consider counting, but don't get ahead of yourself. You can still expect to win a little bit of money playing BS so just focus on that for now.
-Sonny-
If he's going to count and bet accordingly he may as well use CA-BS ('count-adjusted BS) which can be found here -
http://www.bjrnet.com/thop/T-H_Basic_Blackjack.zip
http://www.bjrnet.com/thop/T-H_Basic_Blackjack.zip
played again today. didn't learn your ca-bs yet though.. well this time i used perfect b.s and bet in accordance with my count. i started with 100$ got down as low as 40$ and as high as 150$ ended up breaking even at the end of the hour.. in the first 5 deals i only won one hand... i got up to +5 one time and won a 25$ bet. the only bonus i got was me and one other person got a blackjack at the same time so i won double + a 5 dollar bonus. ( i won 15$ off a 5$ bet). also this game has gained some popularty, both tables where packed with people watching/waiting. so if you go you may want to show up early. and i only tipped 1$ this time!
i was planning on playing tommorow but there is a fire in vegas that i'm going too! so you wont hear from me for a while.
i was planning on playing tommorow but there is a fire in vegas that i'm going too! so you wont hear from me for a while.