Hunch

[gothic]

...

I'm sure some half-assed shuffle tracking could be done with a -20 count slug

 

[zengrifter]

Referring to LL side bets made at +10. Bet $1 to $5 side bets at +10 or greater, not the $25 max bet.

Your edge was higher than what you make your max bet at. Why would you not bet AT LEAST 15?? zg

 

[Hunch]

Lucky Ladies

Your edge was higher than what you make your max bet at. Why would you not bet AT LEAST 15?? zg

Newbie at LL. I believe it was your post I read that suggested +10 was the break point with Zen for positive EV playing LL. I tend to play conservative when I'm not sure that I know what I'm doing. I'll probably bet more on LL after more research. Thanks for all your insights!

 

[Hunch]

Day Four

Won: $920
Trip Cash: $1000
Location: Undisclosed
Decks: Undisclosed
Pen: Varied from 50% (one shoe) to mostly 80% (once 90%)
Players: Heads up sometimes, to four, including me.
Dealer Blackjacks: Zero
Time in Casino: 2.5 hours
Wong Out: 10% of casino time (mostly positive shoes)
YTD: $1,785
System: Complete Zen (modified simplified index numbers)
Spread: 8:1
Minimum: $10
Number of Hands: 2 hands 95% of the time.

I love this game!

 

[zengrifter]

Wong Out: 10% of casino time (mostly positive shoes)
Spread: 8:1
Number of Hands: 2 hands 95% of the time.

Something is not right.
Are you now playing a full wong? zg

 

[zengrifter]

Newbie at LL. I believe it was your post I read that suggested +10 was the break point with Zen for positive EV playing LL. I tend to play conservative when I'm not sure that I know what I'm doing. I'll probably bet more on LL after more research. Thanks for all your insights!

Bet 10 at +10 / 15 at +11 / 25 at +12 (if no Qh sidecount). zg

 

[Hunch]

Something is not right.
Are you now playing a full wong? zg

Generally play all. Wonged out only once at -4.

 

[zengrifter]

Wong Out: 10% of casino time (mostly positive shoes)
Spread: 8:1
Number of Hands: 2 hands 95% of the time.

Something is not right.
Are you now playing a full wong? zg

Generally play all. Wonged out only once at -4.

Then, like I said, something is wrong, your play description doesn't add up. zg

 

[forwhat77]

Kind a thinking that myself..

 

[Hunch]

Then, like I said, something is wrong, your play description doesn't add up. zg

Please explain the issues that concern you.

 

[zengrifter]

Please explain the issues that concern you.

These concern me, for starters >>

Wong Out: 10% of casino time (mostly positive shoes)
Spread: 8:1
Number of Hands: 2 hands 95% of the time.

 

[Hunch]

These concern me, for starters >>

Zg: Let's take these one at a time.

Spread: Are you saying that you have a hard time believing a 1:8 ($10 to $80) spread? Or is it that you don't believe the results are possible with this spread?

 

[zengrifter]

Zg: Let's take these one at a time.

Spread: Are you saying that you have a hard time believing a 1:8 ($10 to $80) spread? Or is it that you don't believe the results are possible with this spread?

Your short-term results are entirely believable but statistically meaningless.
Your 1-8 spread is not sufficient for play-all style of the particular game you are playing. zg

 

[Hunch]

Your short-term results are entirely believable but statistically meaningless.
Your 1-8 spread is not sufficient for play-all style of the particular game you are playing. zg

I agree that my results are statistically meaningless. I'm just posting the results of my play. I respectfully disagree with your analysis of the spread necessary to beat the game as played.

 

[zengrifter]

I respectfully disagree with your analysis of the spread necessary to beat the game as played.

I may have misunderstood what the game was.
If it is a 6D game, my assessment stands. zg

 

[Hunch]

Spreading 1-8 w\ Wong Out Comparison

Sim DD with spread of 1-8 comparing play all; Wong out at -15; Wong out at any negative count.

 

[zengrifter]

My confusion was thinking you were describing 6D play.
Your descriptions DO add up now. zg

 

[Hunch]

Trip 5 & 6

Trip #5

Trip Bank: $1,000
Game: DD H17
Pen: 70%
Min: $10 \ Max: $150
# Players: Five
Casino Time: 1.25 Hours
Wonging Out: Minimal

Results: Won $1,085.00

Trip #6

Trip Bank: $2,085.00
Game: 6D S17 LL
Planned Spread: 15:1
Table Min: $10
Acutal Max Bet: $100
Players: Five
Casino Time: 1 Hour
Wong Out: TC -5

Results: Loss $270.00

YTD: $2,600.00

 

[Hunch]

Trip #7

Game: DD; H17; LS
Min: $15
Spread: $15 - $150 \ Two Hands mostly
Players: 2-7
Casino Time: 4.5 Hours
Wong Out: Mostly played all. Some terrible negative counts.
Pen: 70% - 75% - 80%
Bank: $2,200.00
Results: Loss $82.50

Comments: Should have listened to Zg's advice and Wonged out. No great positive counts to speak of. Should not have played so long either.

 

[Hunch]

Wong Out Sims

I have run some sims comparing my DD play with various Wong out points. The results seem to indicate that a "play all" stategy gets similar results as Wong out at -10 (Zen). This is assuming DD, H17, LS, 75% Pen and 15:1 spread. The results are contrary to the belief of other posters. The sim results also seem to run contrary to my minimal playing experience as well.

I'd appreciate hearing from DD players with experience on this and to confirm my sim results by comparing with sims run by others.