Introduction

Beldin · Dec 18, 2010

Baberuth said:

I knew it would be interesting. Credit to you that you replied to 1-6, so I will tell you about a tap.
TAP- When surveillance reviews your play (usually initiated by the pit boss) and sees you are raising your bets with a positive count and are a threat to the casino. Threat meaning you will win more often than you lose and can keep it going. The "tap" comes from a couple guys in suits coming to the table and tapping you on the shoulder. " Mr. Beldin. Would you step away from the table for a minute please? You are no longer allowed to play blackjack at this casino. You may play any of the other games, but not blackjack. If you play blackjack here again, you will not be allowed in the casino again. Do you understand?"
That is a tap or back off.

Guess I'll have to google index play....

bjcardcounter · Dec 18, 2010

Beldin said:

Beldin, you said you use Basic Strategy , do you always follow it ALL the time. Do you change the Basic Strategy moves if the count tilts ?

Beldin · Dec 18, 2010

Beldin said:

Heres what I found

When I first started playing blackjack seriously some 25 years ago, I would spend weeks memorizing tables of indices. For every hand and dealer upcard an index was listed. For example for the popular Hi/Lo card counting system, the index number for hard 12 vs. 2 was +3. Normally the basic strategy play is to hit a hard 12 if the dealer shows a 2 upcard. But the index number of +3 tells you that when your true count is +4 or higher you should deviate from basic strategy and stand. The reason of course is that with a true count of +4, the unplayed cards are rich in tens and if you drew a card you would have a high probability of busting. There are no guarantees you will win if you stand but you will win more money in the long run if you stand when the true count is +4 or higher (likewise you should hit if it's +3 or less).

Oh...now I see - yeah the section about deviation plays based on count.....how simple was that for someone to say?

Beldin · Dec 18, 2010

bjcardcounter said:

Yes I will. I probably could follow the deviations more as I have not received a TAP yet. I've always been scared to do it especially on my 3 spot 1k bets. But the explanations gives me a better concept of where I stand on the pit boss's radar. I'm still a mark for them at the moment.

*Edit - its pretty freaking painful knowing I'm consciously taking a hit on a + 5 count with a 16 as it were....I suppose I'll see their reaction next time.

MeWin$ · Dec 18, 2010

Oky Doky

Hi Beldin whats up? Im going to respond as if ur not a troll and try to answer ur questions and help.
An index play is a correct deviation from Basic Strategy based on the count. eg. staying on 16 when TC greater or equal to 1.
You know this already from ur prev posts.
I believe in your OP (original post) you had concerns about the size of the swings you were exeriencing and how much of your winnings were due to luck.
To answer this a detailed bet spread is needed. For example, What is ur starting bet? (usually called a unit)
at TC one how much do you bet? at TC 2?.....etc,etc. to ur max bet.
You employ a lot of cover; false progressions etc. please elaborate.
any info on ur betting patterns will help to illuminate ur situation.
From what youve given, i would say that your cover bets and progession are greatly adding to your swings; the more money you put in play the bigger your swings, its just that simple.
As for whether your winnings are mostly due to luck, well the only thing i can respectfully say, is probably yes. How many hours have you put in total?
It doesnt seem like your EV (expected value) can equal your cash in hand. However if you post your betting pattern, me or anyone else can punch in the numbers into a software program and tell you exactly what you 'should' be making.
I also hope im wrong and youre just that good.
As for the negative feedback or 'hate' u are experincing, maybe just respond and reply to the posters that you want to and ignore the rest.
I got to go to work (a casino) but ill reply tomorrow.
Good luck.

blackriver · Dec 18, 2010

MeWin$ said:

so true, im used to forums for other things (poker) where everyones an asshole and only a few posts are ever constructive (but still worth it). but i keep getting anoyed here cause i guess everyone is on trial here at first.

You probably are a fluke who is just running waaaaaay above EV. your theory abotu why you havent been backed off is probably right, because ur passing up lots of value and look like all the other donators. you probably ARE a winning player if ur counting at all, but YOUR edge is probably so small that if you continue this way youll probably still go bust eventually just from variance.

also, were u hinting at the possibility of getting addicted? i dont think that come sup much on AP sites but its good that your aware of it. because we focus on quitting to avoid heat and we are winning players being addicted is much less of a concern, but it is something that you should be wary of. That said, even just being aware and a little cautious of the potential to get addicted is probably enough.

read as much as you can on card counting before you go back there. Blackjack Attack has a really good chapter on cover. if you have aquaintences that play too i suggest playing with them occasionally, but dont let them distract you too much and dont tell them about card counting unless you become serious friends. if they become a counter too then stop playing together or learn team play etc

best of luck to you

best of luck to you

21gunsalute · Dec 18, 2010

Beldin said:

Heres what I found

When I first started playing blackjack seriously some 25 years ago, I would spend weeks memorizing tables of indices. For every hand and dealer upcard an index was listed. For example for the popular Hi/Lo card counting system, the index number for hard 12 vs. 2 was +3. Normally the basic strategy play is to hit a hard 12 if the dealer shows a 2 upcard. But the index number of +3 tells you that when your true count is +4 or higher you should deviate from basic strategy and stand. The reason of course is that with a true count of +4, the unplayed cards are rich in tens and if you drew a card you would have a high probability of busting. There are no guarantees you will win if you stand but you will win more money in the long run if you stand when the true count is +4 or higher (likewise you should hit if it's +3 or less).

Oh...now I see - yeah the section about deviation plays based on count.....how simple was that for someone to say?

It was stated and this information is available all over the site. It's posts like these that are destroying your credibility here. How can you claim to be a counter and not know what indices are?

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

21gunsalute said:

Dunno if I ever ever claimed to be true card counter as many of people who have posted can clearly show but w/e..

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

MeWin$ said:

We'll start off with this year - The usual starting amount of 700-800. The initial small casino I went to had a min bet of $5 and max of $300. Typically i had bets of $5 and would raise up to $300 if I saw a TC of 5 or greater - though my estimates of the decks left to be played was maybe a little skewed at the time - they cut 1.5 decks. During this time I had an occasional large win of 10k-13k however - my concentration level usual never seemed to last long enough and I know I caught myself chasing straight down into a negative count. Because of that - from my logs - over 9 months - I was down 19k roughly.

When I switched casinos - the min bet is $50 and the usual max is $1,000. There have been occasionally a request to raise the limits to $2k min bet of $200. Today was actually the first day the pit boss told me my request to up the limit would require the consent of the other 2 people playing. The TC at this point I had actually managed to keep was over 8. Basically this is my first indicator that they were semi concerned about the count and my request coinciding.

For TC 0-2 my bets are typically minimum. TC 3-4 I'll go to about 200-300 range. TC 5+ I max bet of $1,000. The only catch to this situation is I'm not staying on my 16's when the TC is over 1. Mainly because of my fear of that additional part that would lead me to being barred potentially. However i think this may also be part of the reason for the massive down swings in bankroll.

Total number of hours played I will estimate at about 5 hours a session (as this is most conservative estimate. Total sessions counted in my log is about is 83 sessions this year so far. So that's about 415 totals hours played this year?

Total money put in is obviously the 19k loss in the beginning. The total wins at the larger casino is now over $125k - (just hit a 15k win tonight).

So net profit of around $106k. I'm gonna guess my EV is wayyy skewed.....

21gunsalute · Dec 19, 2010

Beldin said:

We'll start off with this year - The usual starting amount of 700-800. The initial small casino I went to had a min bet of $5 and max of $300. Typically i had bets of $5 and would raise up to $300 if I saw a TC of 5 or greater - though my estimates of the decks left to be played was maybe a little skewed at the time - they cut 1.5 decks. During this time I had an occasional large win of 10k-13k however - my concentration level usual never seemed to last long enough and I know I caught myself chasing straight down into a negative count. Because of that - from my logs - over 9 months - I was down 19k roughly.

When I switched casinos - the min bet is $50 and the usual max is $1,000. There have been occasionally a request to raise the limits to $2k min bet of $200. Today was actually the first day the pit boss told me my request to up the limit would require the consent of the other 2 people playing. The TC at this point I had actually managed to keep was over 8. Basically this is my first indicator that they were semi concerned about the count and my request coinciding.

For TC 0-2 my bets are typically minimum. TC 3-4 I'll go to about 200-300 range. TC 5+ I max bet of $1,000. The only catch to this situation is I'm not staying on my 16's when the TC is over 1. Mainly because of my fear of that additional part that would lead me to being barred potentially. However i think this may also be part of the reason for the massive down swings in bankroll.

Total number of hours played I will estimate at about 5 hours a session (as this is most conservative estimate. Total sessions counted in my log is about is 83 sessions this year so far. So that's about 415 totals hours played this year?

Total money put in is obviously the 19k loss in the beginning. The total wins at the larger casino is now over $125k - (just hit a 15k win tonight).

So net profit of around $106k. I'm gonna guess my EV is wayyy skewed.....

Something is wayyy skewed here. If you're not a true card counter, don't count all the way through the shoe, and lose concentration after about 4 hands, how can you possibly determine what the true count is? :whip:

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

21gunsalute said:

Lets see.... this is pretty much how it goes..

2,3 4,5 5,x

hit cards go 4,7,3,5 etc... hand over - cards that were 2-6 = 8 and then 2 10's.....that equals......6...........and its double deck.......and its 1 deck being cut.....soooooooooooo...............1 deck to play...............soooo true count = 6........................unless I'm realllllllly lost................................................................................................................................................................................

Next hand...bet 3 hands 1k each...... (pray for the best) - i'm probably winning a little over 50% on these bets.....especially if i win all 3 hands....i get a little excited........kinda lose concentration - back down to $50 1 hand........

You know....after you posted.....the more I feel like I'm the one being trolled at.....wheres that nice bright pink troll and fishing line go graphic when you need it...........

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

oh man...and as far as what a PC is....thanks for never telling me guys - really - you thought I was a PIT CRITTER??!!

LOL

That really is pretty funny.

Now look at this private message I got in my inbox. I'm not going to attach any names to it as a matter of courtesy. I honestly don't know if they're just wanting to practice or what not.

"Hello,

I'm curious if you're really serious about doing this. I played high limit for many years before getting backed off in 2005. Maybe I can help you from experiance. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks "

Someone tell me that this POSSIBLY could be a "PC" looking to try to trap someone/ID them.........

Now look at my posts and and see if i do ANYTHING EVEN REMOTELY close to it......

After awhile...I may just have to hit reply and "trolling for catfish" to all the other people calling me a troll.........

HockeXpert · Dec 19, 2010

Beldin said:

Let's see if I get this right, 1x$50 then 3x$1K then 1x$50. A 60-1 spread. Fishing alert!:laugh:

You better wear a hardhat because someone's gonna fall through the ceiling when you try this.

What's up with all the "..............."'s?

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

Hey panther...do you remember when you made this post

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=130238

Default Mathman
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathman View Post
Brett,
Are you playing eight decks? This phenomenon seems to happen more with eight decks. Playing a shoe with caution at first, sometimes will give you a clue as to what to expect in the next shoe. Through experience I've run into cards that slowly work there way up in count, then plateau and bounce around a high number for several hands. This is dangerous to the card counter because when it freezes and bounces around the same high count you are getting stiff hands. At some point the count will fall, sometimes rapidly, that is when your bets will pay off. Being aware of the type of shoe you are playing helps in these situations.

Occasionally these shoes aren't playable for several shuffles because they slowly work there way up and slowly work there way back down again. The player and the dealer get stiffs the whole way up and back down again and it is more difficult to make a profit during those times. This is when card counting becomes very frustrating, you have high counts, you're betting more, standing more often, and doubling and splitting yields results as if you were in a negative count. Meanwhile the dealer is still able to make those fishy 3 or 4 card 21's etc. when they should bust. This is also the time when the other player, who doesn't play very well, wins more hands when they hit and stand by thier "gut" and that adds insult to injury for the card counter. I've found that when you experience these types of cards you may be better off walking away to let them be shuffled a few more times. Playing the first shoe with caution and your "eyes open" helps to gain an insight as to what you have to work with the next shoe.

I realize this explanation sounds like voodoo but playing blackjack isn't always the way the book tells you it should be. Playing with your eyes open helps you to lose less money and that means you end up winning more....JtMM
I agree with your approach and am very impressed with your ability to think outside the box. It is this ability that I believe great battlefield Generals are blessed with.

You are indeed going to fit right in with the MMOA.

This reminds me of the nights I chased 42k in losses......I hated it every time too when somehow I had the only 12-16 hands (3 of them) and the dealer had freaking 20 every time on the high count........gawd i hate that dealer hand sometimes..........

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

mathman said:

I found this site and was immediately impressed by the knowledge available here and the amount of intelligent players. As some here know I learned this game in the trench's so allot of my decisions are based in experience not books. This is not to say I haven't since read books and everything else I could get my eyes on to educate myself in the game of 21, including this site.

I will never pretend or fool myself into thinking I have all the right answers. I believe in card counting and the math, and I trust in both but I also believe in my own observations. I've played this game every way I think it possibly can be played and can only reflect on what has produced the most, consistent profit. Being observant and adjusting my decisions based on table conditions and rules has served me the best during my career. All of my decisions are based in card counting however I've learned that blindly betting doesn't always produce positive results. Paying attention to the condition of the deck and learning to walk away from certain situations has produced happier trips back home. I usually can find something useful in almost every deck but sometimes it's just not there so it's best to allow that deck to change through shuffles and visit again later. If I do find something useful then I shuffle track it and try to capitalize on it in the next shoe.

This game has never become boring to me. I enjoy thinking about ways I can improve my outcome. I also enjoy reading all of the posts here and have learned quite a bit from several of the players here. I believe that no one of us should stop trying to improve their game and that means there is more to it than just the book....JtMM

Click to expand...

You know mathman...what you say is true. I swear yesterday and I watched a fellow player that has played on the same table as me lose his 8k in chips within 10 hands. My "observation" was that the hands for the dealer were hitting into some ungodly hands...no what what he did..1 hand, 2 hand, 3 hand, staying on non-pat hands against the 7-ace. And his bet never went down from $500. Part of me probably was praying for a winning hands for him...but another part of me - the part that watched the almost same exact thing - except my lossess were 27k and 42k on those nights going....the part of me asking - if you're gonna play...why aren't you min betting.

Now that being said - it all can be negative variance you all talk about...its its still nice to find another player who sees it the same way as me At least the "voodoo" or "superstitious" side of me

I noticed someone said something about walking away from a table once they started getting the feeling that the above was happening to them. I have noticed that this "walking" from table to table can change the mental attitude but not necessarily the cards. Do you think the value of being able to refresh the mental attitude is worth leaving a table?

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

21gunsalute said:

I can't believe you called me a pit critter....boy are you mean - lol.

Though honestly from some of my conversations with pit bosses etc...most honestly seem to be pretty nice and don't really "care" if you win. They know they got paper work to fill out - and I definitely see them taking phone calls....but there are some pit bosses that work harder for the casino than other pit bosses...

Like the one guy i remember that looks like an italian mafia guy with an elvis presley haircut. He sits there after I win big for the night coming from a 30k deficit and he says "yeah why you don't play just $500 at this table".

Pretty sure that guy is looking to move up on the ladder...lol

psyduck · Dec 19, 2010

Beldin said:

It does happen that the count goes up and stays up till the cut card shows up. That is because the high cards all end up behind the cut card. The problem is you do not know where the high cards are when the count is high. If you wait for the count to come down to raise your bet, you may miss them. Statistically the player does have an advantage when the count is high. Without shuffle tracking, I think raising bet at high counts is a risk a counter has to face.

Beldin · Dec 19, 2010

psyduck said:

Thank you - for your post. I appreciate you being more constructive/courteous than some of the other members of this forum.

Yeah - I am fully aware that when counting - even if the count goes way high on you - the high cards could all be at the end where you'll never see em. But I think what many people have said - that's what we play for is the general mathmatical chance we'll hit high cards on a high count. Even when the dealer is the only one getting 20....I hate that dealer hand luck sometimes.....I was more referencing more the other ideas that the other guy had posted - but its still good for me to go over the basic ideas.

21gunsalute · Dec 19, 2010

Beldin said:

Lets see.... this is pretty much how it goes..

2,3 4,5 5,x

hit cards go 4,7,3,5 etc... hand over - cards that were 2-6 = 8 and then 2 10's.....that equals......6...........and its double deck.......and its 1 deck being cut.....soooooooooooo...............1 deck to play...............soooo true count = 6........................unless I'm realllllllly lost................................................................................................................................................................................

Next hand...bet 3 hands 1k each...... (pray for the best) - i'm probably winning a little over 50% on these bets.....especially if i win all 3 hands....i get a little excited........kinda lose concentration - back down to $50 1 hand........

You know....after you posted.....the more I feel like I'm the one being trolled at.....wheres that nice bright pink troll and fishing line go graphic when you need it...........

I calls 'em as I sees 'em.

21gunsalute · Dec 19, 2010

Beldin said:

I didn't call you a pit critter, I said:

"Sounds like a PC trolling for info."

I can find no other reason why you would post such conflicting information and show such ignorance to the most elementary of terms and concepts. I calls 'em as I sees 'em.

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