HamburgCouter said:
Let's say I start with 2000€ and learned the basic strategy and all the changes to it (Illustrious 18) depending on the count and dont want to wong out or wong in. I just start with the deck when it starts and play it to the end.
Now when the TC is up to +1 i play the minimum of 5€ and raise my bets in the size of your given table when the TC gets more positive:
Try this or something similiar(1-16spread)
+1/5$
+2/10$
+3/10x10
+4/20x20
+5/40x40
Now my question is, how much is my expectation value (in Money) each Hand?
How high is the risk of getting broke?
How high is the variance?
When i just wong in when the count is +2 or higher and wong out when it gets under Zero, how will those values change?
Thanks in advance
In all fairness, its a good question and Im glad you asked! Unfortunately I have good news and Bad news. Which one do you want first?
Ah the good news...
I knew you were gonna say that.........The good news, is that I recently purchased CVdata. The bad news is, I havent even opened it up yet and have no idea how to use it..lol If I did, Id be more than happy to run a sim for ya. Maybe someone else here can chime in and help you out.
For the record however, you're severly short stacked! And you're gonna be depending alot on ladyluck to get you through your first battle until you can build your Bankroll up a little stronger to get you through those negative swings. If the moneys important to you, I strongly advise gambling with it, until you get it up to at least double what you have now. In addition to a little more experience.
Off the top of my head, you're probably looking at a 1n2 to 1n7 chance of completely getting wiped out. Depending on your skill and how much you wong of course.
If you eliminate aggresive doubles(risk averse). Insure good hands at close counts w/big bets, and use a slighty more conservative betting stategy, your chances of RoR could probably rise to about 1n25 but again Im just spit-ballin.
CVdata or CVCX can answer all these questions for you for about 100$
I know its not what you wanted to hear, but its about the best I can do for right now.:eyepatch: