Is counting with this rules even possible?

[HamburgCouter]

I have a bankroll of 2.000€ ready for blackjack
The maximum is 500€, The minimum is 5€

BJ pays 3/2 and you can split up to 4 times (maybe more i got no idea, but i saw 4 times)

I am not using any system yet, but I am very good at counting HiLo..
So with HiLo +2 you mean the true count or just the plain count?

I will play 2 hands at a time if it keeps the variance lower and yes its possible if theres a free box.

And other question: Do I have to make changes to the basic strategy to play profitable?

 

[Harman]

He means TC of +2. Yes, look at the Illustrious 18 for changes to BS depending on the count

 

[jack.jackson]

I have a bankroll of 2.000€ ready for blackjack
The maximum is 500€, The minimum is 5€

BJ pays 3/2 and you can split up to 4 times (maybe more i got no idea, but i saw 4 times)

I am not using any system yet, but I am very good at counting HiLo..
So with HiLo +2 you mean the true count or just the plain count?

I will play 2 hands at a time if it keeps the variance lower and yes its possible if theres a free box.

And other question: Do I have to make changes to the basic strategy to play profitable?

Yes a TC of +2 will give you a solid edge. Even if double and splits are lost to a dealers natural. (if this is the case Never split or double Against a X or A)-.13

As Harman Mentioned learn the Ill 18.(start a new thread if desired)

Wong out @ tc -1

Try this or something similiar(1-16spread)
+1/5$
+2/10$
+3/10x10
+4/20x20
+5/40x40

Optional:To reduce fluxuations somewhat, never double more than your bet, in a single given hand.

 

[HamburgCouter]

Let's say I start with 2000€ and learned the basic strategy and all the changes to it (Illustrious 18) depending on the count and dont want to wong out or wong in. I just start with the deck when it starts and play it to the end.
Now when the TC is up to +1 i play the minimum of 5€ and raise my bets in the size of your given table when the TC gets more positive:

Try this or something similiar(1-16spread)
+1/5$
+2/10$
+3/10x10
+4/20x20
+5/40x40

Now my question is, how much is my expectation value (in Money) each Hand?
How high is the risk of getting broke?
How high is the variance?

When i just wong in when the count is +2 or higher and wong out when it gets under Zero, how will those values change?

Thanks in advance

 

[jack.jackson]

Let's say I start with 2000€ and learned the basic strategy and all the changes to it (Illustrious 18) depending on the count and dont want to wong out or wong in. I just start with the deck when it starts and play it to the end.
Now when the TC is up to +1 i play the minimum of 5€ and raise my bets in the size of your given table when the TC gets more positive:

Try this or something similiar(1-16spread)
+1/5$
+2/10$
+3/10x10
+4/20x20
+5/40x40

Now my question is, how much is my expectation value (in Money) each Hand?
How high is the risk of getting broke?
How high is the variance?

When i just wong in when the count is +2 or higher and wong out when it gets under Zero, how will those values change?

Thanks in advance

In all fairness, its a good question and Im glad you asked! Unfortunately I have good news and Bad news. Which one do you want first?
Ah the good news...I knew you were gonna say that.........The good news, is that I recently purchased CVdata. The bad news is, I havent even opened it up yet and have no idea how to use it..lol If I did, Id be more than happy to run a sim for ya. Maybe someone else here can chime in and help you out.

For the record however, you're severly short stacked! And you're gonna be depending alot on ladyluck to get you through your first battle until you can build your Bankroll up a little stronger to get you through those negative swings. If the moneys important to you, I strongly advise gambling with it, until you get it up to at least double what you have now. In addition to a little more experience.

Off the top of my head, you're probably looking at a 1n2 to 1n7 chance of completely getting wiped out. Depending on your skill and how much you wong of course.

If you eliminate aggresive doubles(risk averse). Insure good hands at close counts w/big bets, and use a slighty more conservative betting stategy, your chances of RoR could probably rise to about 1n25 but again Im just spit-ballin.

CVdata or CVCX can answer all these questions for you for about 100$

I know its not what you wanted to hear, but its about the best I can do for right now.:eyepatch:

 

[Kasi]

...The good news, is that I recently purchased CVdata.

Good for you JJ. Does that mean you have all CVxx's?

Hamburg - great questions - don't depend on strangers for the answers - it ain't their $5K lol.

God bless the child who has his own.

 

[jack.jackson]

Good for you JJ. Does that mean you have all CVxx's?

Hamburg - great questions - don't depend on strangers for the answers - it ain't their $5K lol.

God bless the child who has his own.

Just CVdata and CVBJ. I got the deluxe customized package!

Gotta keep up with the Jonzes.

 

[HamburgCouter]

Thanks for all the answers!

Well I know where this is going to lead. I am feeling now as I would need to reinvent the wheel
I could buy this software for 100 bucks but learning how to use it would take the same amount of time as making my own little program.

Maybe I can make it, so you just have to enter your strategy (based on count), the rules of the game, your betting strategy and your bankroll and then you get all those values you need also depending on different penetrations.
I think that program could also help some of you guys out.

I hope that someone can still run a simulation on my situation. I will make that program anyway to approve everything.

 

[nightspirit]

I could buy this software for 100 bucks but learning how to use it would take the same amount of time as making my own little program.

:laugh: I don't think so...

Maybe I can make it, so you just have to enter your strategy (based on count), the rules of the game, your betting strategy and your bankroll and then you get all those values you need also depending on different penetrations.
I think that program could also help some of you guys out.

I hope that someone can still run a simulation on my situation. I will make that program anyway to approve everything.

You're reinventing the wheel, save you're time to look for better AP opportunities.
You will find a few (disappointing) answers to your questions by using Qfit's CVCX Online Viewer. You already know what SCORE and N0 means, do you?

 

[callipygian]

You're reinventing the wheel, save you're time to look for better AP opportunities.

I'm not so negative about the prospect of making your own. It's definitely more time-consuming than learning a program someone's already made, but you learn a lot by doing it. If you're a mathematician or a computer programmer, it shouldn't take more than a few days to get everything right, anyway.