Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#61
In the interest of full confession, I realized I forgot to mention something from a Saturday morning I was playing last October. I mentioned the bit where I flat-bet $10 through two shoes (because I wasn't up to counting heads-up) and won $300. However, I didn't mention later that day, at the same casino, when I regained my counting ability. I was playing at a table and the running count went ballistic. This was probably the first time I had really seen it do this. And while I was familiar with the general concept of playing with indices, I didn't actually know them. I basically panicked. So I started making wild-assed guesses. And the even scarier part was, they were working. The time when I stood on a 12 vs a 10 was (and won) was especially memorable. It was only when I got home that I realized what a bonehead I was.

Oh, and my stepdad's still in Vegas this weekend, so I'm going again. I'm actually kind of looking at it in a "time to make the donuts" kind of way. However, Hal's also tried learning some basic strategy this week, so I'm looking forward to playing a little with him.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#62
Vegas Diary 2: Pig in the City

Well, back to Vegas again last weekend. Hal was still in town for a different convention, and offered to share his room at the Wynn. Gift horse? Mouth?

Friday: V minus 1

I pull $3000 out of the bank for a trip bankroll. Based off my theoretical max bet of $150, I'm estimating that will make my risk of ruin for the weekend... fairly high, I guess.

Idea is to leave town moderately late Friday night to escape worst traffic. As I'm on the way to the gas station to fill up, I run out of gas, and have to do the jerry can thing to make it the last quarter mile. Not an auspicious start. Traffic, however, really isn't too bad, except for the accident on the 215. Arrive at the Wynn about 1AM, head directly to the elevators with my two bags (bump into a guy with his two prostitutes), and crash into a deep short sleep.

The Wynn is, as expected pretty fancy. For decor, imagine that 4 different hoity-toity country clubs had garage sales, and it was all crammed in one place. Very WASPy, which is ironic since Steve Wynn is apparently Jewish. The golf course looked pretty from the hotel window, I hear the green fees are $500. As for the tables, on a weekend night they'll have one token $15 CSM table, but mainly $25 mins, and most of the shoe games have $50 or $100 mins (this is on main floor, not high-roller land). The cocktail waitresses are pretty good looking, but there is significant variance.

Saturday: V Day

Got up moderately early (9am), and tromped downstairs at the Wynn. Miracle of miracles, I found a 6D shoe game (only one table) with a mere $15 minimum, and it was nearly empty! I went ahead and plunked down my cash. The penetration is fairly mediocre at Wynn (1.5-2 decks cut off), but I still had a stretch where the count pegged at maximum, and I began deploying bets of 2x$100. End up with a win of about $700. It was a nice little morale and bankroll boost, since I was concerned about ROR for the trip. Also, I got to mark "played cards at the Wynn" off my to-do list.

Figured I'd check out the south strip area while it was still earlyish. Parked at MGM Grand. At that time (just before noon), all of the tables (8D) were $25 min. Curious. I backcounted into one and wonged in near the end of the shoe. Probably lost one bet. Then, after the shuffle, I figured I'd play one bet and "let it ride" until I left or the count turned positive. Well, on that first hand, I got three 8's, a double-down, and lost all bets, so I lost about $130. Time to find cheaper tables.

NYNY has solid 6D games. It's also full of stereotypical tourists. Sat at a table with 2-3 other players, had one positive swing, then a negative swing, walked away with $5 less (which was accounted for by dealer and cocktail waitress tips).

Monte Carlo was the same as last week, even the same floor supervisor, and the lack of getting rated with bets under $25. Was playing mainly at an 8D game after wonging in. Had a fairly high count early, but I lost some of the bets, putting me down a few hundred. After the shuffle, I didn't drop immeidately to $10, but put a single green chip out with a $1 dealer bet "riding" on top. The count went in the toilet, but I had a streak of wins. Eventually, I noticed that the same $1 dealer bet was still riding, the three players had consumed four decks of the shoe! Left with a win of a couple hundred after about two hours, due almost entirely to blind-ass luck. The dealer got a crapload of tips out of it too, which was fine, because she was much nicer than the initial cranky dealer.

On way back to car, went through MGM Grand again. By late afternoon, they had a lot more tables cookin', including $10 and $15 8D tables (all H17). The "permanent" $25 tables seem to be S17, and the swing $25 tables seemed to be H17. Strange. Anyway, did some backcounting at a table with three other players. Count got fairly high, fairly early. wonged in and started playing two hands of $50-$75 pretty quickly. Aces and tens began falling from the sky onto my spots. The other players were getting crap, but I was getting great cards. So great, in fact, that the high count burned itself out before the shuffle. I worked my bets down to $10, finished out the shoe, and then left at the shuffle, up over $300. It's nice when an ideal wonging scenario works out like that.

By now it was Saturday night, I had pretty much given up on finding decent conditions. Me and Hal checked out Bill's Gamblin Parlor (ex-Barbary Coast). Grabbed dinner at their steakhouse, which is decent, but incredibly tiny. It almost feels like the closet of some larger restaurant. The tables were pretty much Harrah's standard issue, lots of 8D shoes and DD games with questionable penetration, and 6:5 single deck all over.

Tried to go to bed early to get going on Sunday. Not only was I wired from being up for the day, but I learned that Hal snores like a sawmill. It was a long uncomfortable night.

Sunday: V plus 1
Stumbled downstairs, found the one $15 table again. Table population kept varying between heads-up and up to 3 other people, and back again. Grabbed a breakfast of a bloody mary and a red bull/vodka. Actually got a little bit buzzed (I'm a lightweight), and realized I should have taken it slightly easier on the hooch. Initial plan was to play a little over an hour, but my watch stopped running, and I ended up player over 3 hours. I had to dig fairly deeply into my wallet, but at the end of the session, I had a $950 win. Kind of nice being able to cash $1000 out of the cashier without them batting an eye.

Decided it was time to do some low-rolling on the Boulder Highway with Hal. Was excited about the idea of finding a cheap BJ table and just killing some time, since he was starting to get interest in this "basic strategy" stuff. Dropped by Boulder Station, since it was the first we saw. Sat down at a doubledeck table, filling it up. On the first hand Hal gets a 9 to the dealer's 6. He forgets how things work in a pitch game, and so instead of doubling down, he tucks his cards. Dealer ends up making a high pat hand beating most of the table, and when he reveals Hal's cards, all hell breaks loose. The overweight sassy black woman to his left begins giving him grief, while the dealer beins to apologize in broken english for not being seeing his cards to stop him. I just begin laughing at all of the helpful advice that he's getting. Hal decides that he "didn't sit down at the table to take **** from anyone," packs up his chips and leaves. So much for that experiment. I play a few hands, realize that nothing is going to happen at a full table, and leave, even.

I'm then left with the rest of the Boulder Strip to myself, and go on a coupon-cashing and playing spree. Next stop is Arizona Charlie's. Find an empty 6D game with a new dealer who gave great penetration. But then the replacement dealer comes in and, while he's a nice guy, he cuts off 2 decks. Still play for a almost two hours before leaving, because the counts were this close to turning good. Most fun had was in harassing another player at the table who was a stereotypical asshole New Yorker.

Next was the Longhorn. Man, what a tiny place. Four tables crammed right next to each other. I'm playing at the $3 table, which only has one other person playing, since it's the high-roller table. The $2 table is full. There's a neat mirror on the ceiling where the pit (and me!) can view the other tables. Longhorn has an interesting liberal rule: allowing double down on any three cards. I may have had one opportunity to use this, but missed it because my play was on autopilot. The big problem with the game there is the crappy penetration. At least 2 decks were cut off the back, but they also deal out the first card face up, and then burn that number of cards without showing them (shoe a 5, burn five cards). Played for little over an hour before I was satisfied that the penetration was crap (was consistent through 3 dealers)

Next door is Nevada Palace. Definitely a low-roller haven. I sat down at a $2-$200 6D table that was, initially, totally empty. I think this is because I was at the high-roller table. The other, more crowded table might have been a $1 table. Besides being treated like a while if you use a green chip, the other thing I appreciated about this joint was the good penetration at the 6D shoe. Two different dealers only cut off barely over a deck when I was playing (CBJN lists fairly crappy penetration though, so maybe it's high variable). No surrender offered on the game, though. Played about an hour.

Last place I checked out was Sam's Town, which was much larger than I expected. Played about half an hour at a doubledeck game, realized that penetration and crowding was an issue, and split.

Now that I was done with the boulder strip, and it was nighttime to boot, I decided to head to everyone's favorite joint, El Escortez. And actually, compared to where I had just been, EC seemed pretty darn classy. On a Sunday night, it was relatively deadsville. The doubledeck tables all had a few players at them, but there were at least 3 completely empty single deck tables. It was strange. I played for exactly one hour.

Ironically, of the 6 or so coupons I used that day, I think I lost on every one of them.

It was a radically successful day (up almost $2500 since waking up), and I was starting to get tired, so I ate a celebratory banana split at Wynn's ice cream parlor, watched the UBT Legends match on TV, and went to bed. Was still wired, and Hal was still snoring like a freight train, so the sleep wasn't very high quality again.

Monday: V plus 2
Got a slightly late start, and I was a little bit anxious about gambling too hard, both because I kind of wanted to hang on to the win, and because I needed to leave that afternoon.

Walked over the the Venetian, because I just wanted to check it out. Was surprised to see $10 shoe games (8D) available, even an empty one! Unfortunately, the table filled up pretty quickly, and the penetration seemed pretty crappy to me (2.5 or so decks cut, by my poor estimation). I moved on with a slight win of about $60.

Went on a long walk down to Bellagio. Was absolutely dumbfounded to see a large number of $5 and $10 tables. All CSM though. It looks like if you want shoe or pitch games, you need to bet $50 or $100. Bummer.

Took the long walk back to the Wynn. Played a little more at the $15 table. Count never got good, and lost a lot of hands and min bet, for a loss of about $135. The table min was bumped to $25 around 1PM, although the pit never even mentioned the change to me.

Took a brief nap, packed up, and headed home. Traffic at 4pm was sort of bad in Vegas, very easy traffic on the rest of the way home.

Anecdotes

- At one joint, I there was one other player who was on his way to the airport (suitcase and everything). He went kamiikaze with his last $75 in chips (I was betting $10 at the time. He was dealt 6,6 vs dealer 3. While he was pondering what to do, I offered to help him split the sixes. We went "teamsies", and the dealer ended up busting. It was only when I got back to the hotel room that I looked up what the odds were with that play... oops. I really had no business taking a piece of that hand (although it was only slightly negative EV for splitting).

- Elsewhere, at one table, after an hour or so, we ended up in a situation where if a player got a tough hand, and asked the dealer for advice, the dealer starting asking me for what the correct BS play was. While being The Professor of the table was nice from an ego perspective, it sure didn't seem like very good cover.

- I hate tourists.

- While walking past the Mirage, I saw a duck swimming in the pond. I stopped and idly looked at it while drinking my frozen lemonade. The duck swam up to the side of the pond, climbed out on the grass, and stood right in front of me, acting nonchalant. I guess it thought I had food, even though I was basically stationary and silent. Conclusion: ducks love tourists.

- I think there might have been a lesbian convention going on in Vegas. I saw a lot of couples around town. And not the hot kind of lesbians that you see at Spearmint Rhino... just regular lesbians.

- At a few of low-roller places, I got to really fire up my bets to a high level. And I got to say, that was arguably the highlight of the trip. I'd like to go into more detail, but I'm already going into too much.

Skills:

- I got in an animated conversation with a dealer while playing heads up when we started talking about cars. Unfortunately, I flubbed the count when doing this (RC off +-5). It's great to be able to have a conversation while counting, but I guess I just missed the "while counting" part.

- Ended up playing some pitch game with a fairly new dealer (making little mistakes of procedures of payouts and card collectoin, etc). This was probably an ideal scenario to see some hole card action, but I didn't even think about that until I had left. I'm just not trained on what to look for.

- At some point, probably on Saturday, I came to the conclusion that my bankroll had grown far larger than my skills. (The bankroll growth was due to online casino bonus whoring). Now that my bets were approaching being large enough to be noticed (at some joints), I figured it was only a matter of time before I was kicked out of every casino in the state.

- Kind of related, but I had the opportunity to bet it up big at some low-roller joints. Worried about heat from the get-go, I worked strenuously camouflage my bets. Kind of strange, since before I had worked hard to bet in proportion to the count... now I was trying to bet like a gambler. In general, I was only decreasing on losses, and only increasing on wins (or increasing on losses where the total bet was still small). Generally, my biggest adjustments were to double or halve my bets I was also spreading to two hands fairly early. In fact, a few times, I'd even deliberately size my bets differently. I think this helped me look like a doofus. It also provided more room to increase or decrease bets, depending on what the count did.

The method definitely succeeded at pushing more money out on the table, even if it just took longer to get there. At one shoe game, my maximum spread ended up being from one hand of $5, to 2x$125. On a single deck game I ended up going from $10 to about $70-$80. I didn't seem to be attracting any adverse attention (although there was already attention, these being low-roller joints at all).

I know this technique is suboptimal, but I'm especially concerned about how I used it in a single deck game. It seems that there is a chance that my bets reacted far too slowly for the quick changes of a SD game. I have a hunch that I may have had a practical spread of only 1-4 or so, but my average bet level was just wandeing over a fairly large range during the session.

Conclusion:

I had winnings of $3400 over the weekend. By my standards, that's titanic. I kept telling myself that the EV was only a couple hundred bucks, but it was hard not to be a little euphoric. Afterwards, I decided to go ahead and pay for the gas expenses out of my gambling account, rather than my real money.

Two weekends. Two trips to Vegas in a row. Damn, I'm tired of driving, and I'm looking forward to not gambling next weekend. I did, however, get the chance to check out a ton of places I had only read about before, so it was definitely worth it. And the winning was just gravy. :)
 

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
#63
I'm kind of curious why and where you were playing 8 deck games at MGM. I have never even seen an 8 deck game there, let alone thought to play one with better 6 deck games available. I know the minimums can get expensive, but there are pits where they start at $10 and move up as the day progresses. The fact that you wong in also makes $25 tables very playable. I hope with your next trip you see what I'm talking about. The MGM is definitely one of my favorite places to play, and has been for my team for many years.
 

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#65
EasyRhino said:
- At one joint, I there was one other player who was on his way to the airport (suitcase and everything). He went kamiikaze with his last $75 in chips (I was betting $10 at the time. He was dealt 6,6 vs dealer 3. While he was pondering what to do, I offered to help him split the sixes. We went "teamsies", and the dealer ended up busting. It was only when I got back to the hotel room that I looked up what the odds were with that play... oops. I really had no business taking a piece of that hand (although it was only slightly negative EV for splitting).
another amazing chapter!

in general you don't want to help out on splits against really low or high cards...or any "defensive" split. though maybe it would make for affordable cover... and the fact that you didn't get carried away with it was good :)

the ones against 5 and 6, if memory serves are the best.

helping others double, especially against low cards seem to be the best hands to get involved with. there are even some soft doubles that aren't BS that are still +EV. i can't remember which, something like A6 or A7 vs. 7.
 

Renzey

Well-Known Member
#66
Rule of Thumb for Splits

An easy rule of thumb to remember those splits which are both losers -- yet have a marketable appearance are: 2's, 3's, 6's or 7's against a 2 or 3 up. When you have any of these, just look uncertain and quizzically ask the table what the right play is. Somebody will almost always know you should split and will eagerly offer that sage advice. But that same somebody never seems to understand that splitting is merely the least costly way out of a bad hand. Then, offer to go partners on his own advice.
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#67
There is no 8 deck at the MGM

Bojack1 said:
I'm kind of curious why and where you were playing 8 deck games at MGM. I have never even seen an 8 deck game there, let alone thought to play one with better 6 deck games available. I know the minimums can get expensive, but there are pits where they start at $10 and move up as the day progresses. The fact that you wong in also makes $25 tables very playable. I hope with your next trip you see what I'm talking about. The MGM is definitely one of my favorite places to play, and has been for my team for many years.
I know there is no 8 deck at the MGM and I believe there is no 8 deck at the Monte Carlo, but not sure.

ihate17
 

bluewhale

Well-Known Member
#69
holy ****. when i suggested increasing your bets i didn't mean going from a 50 max to 2x125, lol. but kudos to you man. i also hope you can stomach a 3k loss, cause you and i both know its very probable with your new bet size.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#71
EasyRhino said:
- At one joint, I there was one other player who was on his way to the airport (suitcase and everything). He went kamiikaze with his last $75 in chips (I was betting $10 at the time. He was dealt 6,6 vs dealer 3. While he was pondering what to do, I offered to help him split the sixes. We went "teamsies", and the dealer ended up busting. It was only when I got back to the hotel room that I looked up what the odds were with that play... oops. I really had no business taking a piece of that hand (although it was only slightly negative EV for splitting).
Nice log - I enjoy reading them. Thx.

I was just gonna say that when you evaluate hands like 6,6 vs 3 it's really not enough to just look up the EV of hitting vs splitting. You also have to take into account the frequency that that hand occurs if you want to know what''s it really costing you in terms of total play.

So ypu'll be glad to know that that hand cost u alot less than probably what u think. Like, if u bet $100/hand for a 100 hands, it would cost u 13 cents!

That's why camouflage plays like standing on 16 vs 10 that have almost no difference in EV compared to hitting actually end up costing you more than twice the camouflage play of insuring a BJ.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#72
Well, the curiosity was killing me. I called up the MGM Grand, talked to someone in table games, and was told me that all their shoe games are 6 deck. This means two things:

1) At least I wasn't overbetting during my short wongs there.
2) I continue to be too stupid to live.

If anyone was wondering why I'm reluctant to use a counting system that requires deck estimation and true count conversion, this is it. By my God, I'm still boggling at how basic that error was. Guess I'll pick up 8 decks of cards next time I'm out.

(Incidentally, phone person indicates that MGM Grand has one doubledeck game, $100 min, which I didn't see on my old issue of CBJN).
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#73
EasyRhino said:
2) I continue to be too stupid to live.
Hey you won didn't you? :)

Those sneaky b*strds there probably use extra-thick cards to make it look like 8 decks!

Eons ago I would count the number of cards dealt out before the cut card which makes it pretty easy to determine how many decks are in play. Likewise look at the discard thing after 52 cards to get an idea of a deck.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#74
Dear Diary, today I would like to emphasize three topics:

1) I'm still stupid
2) Video poker is boring
3) Proportional betting is as important as people say it is.

This weekend was an opportunity to inflict my Vegas-induced cockiness on some local casinos. It also marked the first dipping of my toe into this whole "Video Poker" thing that I've been hearing about. Let's talk about that first. I hadn't played it before except for about 10 minutes online. I lackadaisically prepared myself, by reading More Frugal Gambling (was hoping for more specifics, btw), notating paytables for some of the more desirable games, and printing out some strategy cards.

At the first joint, I played a $1 "not so ungly duck" deuces wild machine. Got the hang of the strategy pretty quickly. Sat down with the goal of losing $200. Actually played for quite a while. Man, video poker is boring, especially single play. I actually got so bored that I stopped playing when I had only lost $130. I think IGT or someone needs to invest in VP with some really snazzy graphics elements borrowed from slots. While this would probably also accompany worse payouts (it always does), I think they could quickly dominate the market.

At another place, I was searching around looking for good VP machines (which, incidentally, is possibly even less pleasant than backcounting BJ tables). Found an old beat up deuces wild machine with a paytable that I didn't have a copy of, but that actually seemed superior than what I was prepared to play! But, bearing in mind that I'm an idiot, I still only fed $100 or so through it, in case I was confused by the paytable.

At the next joint I was able to determine that they had absolutely zero useful machines. At the fourth joint, I found a ten-play DW machine with the same mystery paytable. I began to further suspect that the paytable was crap, since multiplay machines aren't supposed to have good payouts. But I fed in some lose bills, and actually had something resembling fun. Once you get 10 or so things happening at once, the information overload kicks in, and I start to feel like a kid who ate too much sugar.

Finally, at the last joint, found a 25 cent triple play, full play, Jacks or Better machine. Played it for about an hour, got bored, and left even.

When I got home and researched the mystery paytable, I realized that it was horrible, something like 97.5% payout, I shouldn't have been anywhere near those machines. That's where the lack of preparation hurt me. Also while doing some research, I realized that there may not be any positive-expectation VP machines in southern California. This would be understandable, what with taxes and slot compact limits and stuff. Also, if I just want to get generic comps, I can do that through casino play, so the casino is going to need to have a cashback program to make this crap worthwhile. So, while think I'll do some more research on machines and strategies and cashback details, I don't see VP being much more than cover or a way to comp hustle in specific circumstances.

Okay, on to the cards.

Saturday morning I went to a smallish joint that I'm fond of, but am kind of worried about them being sweaty with larger bets. Empty shoe game with a dealer I recognized. And, holy crap!, he cut off under 1 deck on the 6D shoe! Now, I know my deck estimation skills are notoriously bad, but there really were less than 52 cards at the end of the shoe. His shift ended fairly soon after I arrived, I got to start going there earlier in the morning.

As for the play itself, I kept winning, it was kind of embarassing. Play for a little over an hour, win some. Eat lunch. Play for another hour, win more. Take a break for VP. One last quick sit-down, win again. While I was trying to rathole away some of my wins, I also figured out who the cashier was calling when I would redeem a largish amount of chips, it was the pit, confirming the amount, and the number of black checks. Great, now I have to audit myself if I go to the cashier immediately after playing, ensuring that a) the total amount roughly matches what I am supposed to have, and b) the number of black chips matches exactly. Least I'm starting to get it worked out. Glad I never tried ratholing black chips, that could have been awkward.

Went to next joint. Backcounted an 8D shoe at a $25 table (and yes, really eight decks, I checked beforehand). Count got super-high, wonged in at near max bets, two hands (2x$100). Lost quite a few of those bets. Got tired of redeeming chips, had money play a few times. Table min was too high for my comfort, so wonged out at the shuffle. Had some more uneventful play, then another high count, and things turned out badly again. Left.

Last place to play blackjack was another smallish joint, with lots of low-rollers. Backcounted an 8D jumped in playing 2x$100 again, and started getting clobbered, again. The unattentive floorman seemed surprised when he asked which players had been responsible for the 4 buyins from the previous 10 minutes, and the answer was me. I. You know... It's kind of a strange feeling for me to jump in to a table, immediately betting that large. It's an even stranger feeling to be greeted by a dealer blackjack, followed by several other losses. The most apt analogy I could think of was running full speed into a brick wall.

Sunday, I lollygagged in the morning, not because of Easter, but just because I wasn't feeling very excited about staring at VP strategy cards, and I was wondering if a better use of my weekend bankroll might have been to just light it on fire in the parking lot. I eventually got my ass in gear. Very crowded, but eventually found a $10, played from the shuffle for a few shoes, raised my bets some, had a "bathroom break" or two... the usual. Then, after dinner, I backcounted a $25 table where there was only one guy playing (playing big money, too). Count got very good, very quickly. Jumped in with my usual bets. Everything went to hell, again. Not only were the cards not treating me nice, but the table filled up, even though $25 was a pretty high minimum for that area. I guess somebody set off a ploppy beacon, or something. I went ahead and left at the end of the shoe, and went home to lick my wounds.

While at the table, I was starting to feel an emotion which was becoming familiar, but I don't have a name for it yet. It's a mixture of excitement (from betting what really does seem like a foolish amount of money), combined with anger (from the bad beats), combined with confusion (where are the high cards?), combined with bewilderment (why is that guy alternating bets between $25 and $700?), combined with grief (I miss my money). Anyway, it's a strange feeling, I'm sure I'll find the name for it eventually. The good news is that my game held up. I was beyond needing to size bets, but I was making index plays off and on as needed, and I didn't decide to stand on a multihand 14 vs 10, because swore off making "hunch" index plays. And while my KO running count didn't really drop by the end of the shoe, I was able to realize that that meant the true count had shrank some, so I curtailed my bets a little bit.

Don't get me wrong, it still sucked. The worst thing? I can't tell myself "well, you got it out of your system," because I know in my heart that I have yet to scratch the surface of the epic losses that are possible.

However, when I was tallying up my cash at the end of the weekend, I found I had a net loss of only $1000 ($1500 peak-to-trough). That's chump change! Hell, I lost more than that on my Sunday in Reno, and I had one-eigth of the money on the table compared to this weekend. But this is where proportional betting really proves its worth. While it certainly felt like betting a couple hundred bucks on a stupid blackjack hand was a fundamentally insane to do, when backed by an adequate bankroll, it's really not that ridiculous. Adequate funding, combined with my naturally pessimistic outlook on life, meant it wasn't as bad as I thought it was.

(And technically, the 2X$100 bets I was using as my max was a slight underbetting of my target amount, but it's an easier amount to deploy, and frankly, it was hard for me to push out the extra greenchips while getting walloped on).

I also got my crapload of blackjack books in the mail last week, so I look forward to, I dunno, maybe learning something.
 

halcyon1234

Well-Known Member
#75
EasyRhino said:
...combined with grief (I miss my money)...
lol! Maybe it's the several hours of writing a final paper that's warped my mind, but man-- that line made me laugh.

As always, good report! Keep up the good work.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#77
Dear Diary:

I'm doomed.

Spent a few hours over the weekend at two different joints. Pretty crowded. Ended up playing a lot of a doubledeck game that I hadn't played much before. It was... interesting. On the upside, it had good rules (H17 DOA DAS LS). Downside was very iffy penetration (55%) and full six-spot tables. Not really a lot of opportunity to put much money on the table with that. Good to kill time trying to earn a comp, I guess. The most interesting this was sitting at a full table composed entirely of green-chippers for an extended time. It's a different world than Nickel Land. I think they play worse in Quarter Town.

From a "technical" standpoint, bumped into a few events that made me slightly proud of my skills. On one, I was able to catch (and correct) a complicated dealer payout mistake, while still keeping the count (Surrenderd a $101 bet, and there were no 50 cent chips at table, only $2.50). I mean, me and the dealer had to go back and forth like four times until the payout was right, there was a lot of numbers flying around. Caught it again when surrendering a $166 bet. The other part was at another joint, a replacement dealer came in, and POW, he started dealing really fast. I mean, really fast. And he would make obvious plays automatically too. Table was fairly full, and after the first hand, we all looked at each other blankly and asked "What happened?". He said he was the fastest dealer in the store. I was still able to keep the count. The ultimate test, of course, would have been a heads-up with this guy, that would be a great challenge (and potentially very lucrative on an hourly basis if my brain didn't fry!)

Anyway, on a more ominous note, after I had been at one joint for a few hours bouncing between pits, I'm pretty sure I the floor supervisor making "The Call" while I had my big bet out. You know what I'm talking about, the one where he picks up the phone, and looks in my general direction with a grim expression while talking? Aw christ. I dared change my bet as I rode out the rest of the shoe. But then, out of sheer habit, I ratholed a green chip. Aw christ! Why the hell did I do that, when I was operating under the assumption that the cameras were watching me? I realized my mistake immediately after I had made it. My sleight-of-hand skills are barely sufficient if someone is facing the wrong way, I don't stand a chance against surveillance. It will be very interesting to see if I'm burned next time I return (which will probably be a while).

Flash forward a couple days. I'm checking out a store that I only play at once every couple of months. I spot an empty table, sit down, give them my player's card and cash. By the time I get my chips, I get The Tap, and am informed that my card play is no longer welcome. Wow, didn't even have time to play a hand! Who am I, Ken Uston?

Incidentally, I really need to work on my act for when I get backed off. I really think crying a little bit might work once in a while. Of course, I guess I need to work on my act in general, which brings me to...

... what I did wrong. It was obviously my name that triggered the backoff, not my appearance. I worked back to the last time I was at this place, a few weeks ago. I had backcounted a shoe game, wonged in betting big, lost, and left after a fairly short session (definitely under an hour, maybe shorter). Nothing really horrible, I was even fairly restrained in dropping my bets after the shuffle. But here's the problem:

1) This is a fairly low-roller place. Putting $200 on a spot must have triggered automatic scrutiny from surveillance (It certainly wasn't from the indifferent floorman!).
2) It's a fairly small place, only a few tables were open. So, someone backcounting through 4 decks is going to be pretty obvious. Especially if reviewing a tape.
3) I stayed after the shuffle. In hindsight, it would have been perfectly reasonable to the casino for some donk to walk up to a table, throw down a couple hundred bucks, and then go home and lick his wounds. But to keep playing after the shuffle, and eventually drop down to small bets, even if gradually?

End result: my second backoff, again seemingly purely from surveillance, not the floor crew. Seems like it would have been tricky to avoid, given the amounts that I was betting.

Was I this rational when driving away from the casino? No. I was pretty damn spooked. The Look, The Call, and The Tap, all in a two-day period at two different joints! Then, the nightmare scenario leapt into my head: what if Casino A had called Casino B, and I had just been entered into some sort of inter-tribal blacklist?

In the car, I began muttering, "I'm a dinosaur... I'm a dinosaur..."

To test the theory, I drove to nearby Casino C, which is small enough -- and I'm enough of a regular -- so I wouldn't have a chance of going unrecognized with or without a player's card. Sat down at a table, handed over the card and a few bucks, and awaited the worst. Nothing happened. So at least I know know I'm not globally f-ed.

But still, backed off from one local casino, and a potential problem at another...

I think I have to tone this **** down when I'm playing locally.

I'm thinking I need to start laying on some pretty thick camo when I'm playing at some place weekly. I'm considering a sort of Penultimate Gambit, including:
1) Reduced bet spreads when in play-all conditions
2) Reduced wonging when it would be conspicuous.
3) Some strategically inserted basic strategy mistakes

It's the last item that is going to hurt the most. There's a little bit of pride involved in knowing The Book 100% for the game you're playing, especially when sprinkled in with some index plays. Intentionally misplaying hands, even if not costly ones, just seems so... wrong.

Now, all of this is really going to hamper the profitability of the game, but I also need to weigh that against the longevity of my welcome at local casinos. Because frankly, if it requires a five-hour drive to Vegas just to get my game on, that dramatically reduces the appeal of card counting as a hobby.

Bummer.
 

Xenophon

Well-Known Member
#78
EasyRhino said:
Dear Diary:

I'm thinking I need to start laying on some pretty thick camo when I'm playing at some place weekly. I'm considering a sort of Penultimate Gambit, including:
1) Reduced bet spreads when in play-all conditions
2) Reduced wonging when it would be conspicuous.
3) Some strategically inserted basic strategy mistakes

It's the last item that is going to hurt the most. There's a little bit of pride involved in knowing The Book 100% for the game you're playing, especially when sprinkled in with some index plays. Intentionally misplaying hands, even if not costly ones, just seems so... wrong.

Now, all of this is really going to hamper the profitability of the game but I also need to weigh that against the longevity of my welcome at local casinos. Because frankly, if it requires a five-hour drive to Vegas just to get my game on, that dramatically reduces the appeal of card counting as a hobby.
Two books that could help you look into what kind of gambit you'd like to use are Ian Andersons' "Burning the tables in Las Vegas." and Fred Renzeys' "Blackjack Bluebook II."

This is actually a very smart thing to do in your situation, even though making basic strategy errors takes some getting used to. When you have a min bet out, the misplay costs little, especially in relation to your big bets. And when the count goes positive and you are suppose to deviate, you will already be making the correct decision according to the count, with your big bets. :cool:
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#79
Two themes from last weekend:

First, camo:

Went to some different joints than where I had my unpleasant experiences. I wasn't immediately ejected or anything, confirming that the idea of a global ban is paranoia at this point. Toned down my bet spread some (mainly by increasing the minimum). Sprinkled in some play errors in neutral/negative counts. It wasn't as painful as I thought it would be (hitting 10v10 feels kind of flakey, and standing on A,7 vs 10 is the hardest to force myself to do). But the funny thing was that the opportunities for even the "common" play mistakes didn't really seem to come up that often, it felt like I had to search for opportunities to play bad.

I had trouble maintaining my "camo discipline" on two different occassions. The first was a long stretch where I was losing bad (mainly in neutral/negative counts). I mean, I was losing really bad. I began to break down, and was droping my bets lower and lower, and tending to revert to perfect basic strategy. I've got to watch that.

Second occassion was when the count got really high, really quickly, and I was stuck with a minimum bet on the table. I felt like I couldn't parlay fast enough to build it up. Although I did keep it together fairly well here. I cheated a bit, and when one hand won a double-down bet, I stacked it all up on that one spot, leading to two amusingly lopsided hands.

I did have a floorman eyeing the game pretty closely when I had max bets out near the end of a shoe. In this case, I just left them out there, even reloading them on a loss even though the count had dropped some. And I kept them riding after the shuffle too. Oh, and I stopped trying anything clever like ratholing chips by this point in the game, too :)

Oh, and I played a little VP, but I've given up on the idea of it being a moneymaker, it's solely for cover purposes in these parts.

Second, the amazing bungee bankroll

- Went to joint A, played at an uncrowded table. Managed to lose all but one hand in a shoe which included some medium bets. Lost several hundred bucks.
- Took a break with VP during a shift change. Hit four deuces for a $1000 win. Now I see why people play video poker.
- Went bank to tables, lost another couple hundred.

- Travel to Joint B. Try to do some wonging of the 8D tables (after reading Blackjack Attack, realize just how horrible they are in a play-all environment), but can't find a good count for over an hour. Gets crowded and I bail.

- Joint C I don't play at as much. Lots of tables, but I have a choice of:
a) backcounting full tables with bad penetration
b) empty tables with bad penetration
I chose b), and spent a while "white rabbiting", trying to leave on negative counts. This is complicated by my using KO, and sucking at deck estimation, but I still ended up at four different tables. Had some pretty miserable losing streaks here, including another shoe where only 1 hand was won (fortunately, almost all min bets). But still, I had lost over a grand at this joint by this point.
- Stumble into another table which gets more crowded, and had a really high count. Deployed maximum bets, and went on a hell of a winning streak. After the shoe was reshuffled, I was stuck with two max bets out. Crazy thing? I kept on winning, even though the count was degrading slightly (I was getting the good cards while my table cohorts were getting crap). And I just left the bets out there, collecting funds. Eventually one of them lost, and I dropped to one hand. Then eventually the other hand lost, and I figured it was a good time to leave. But man, it was a hell of a win. Biggest I've had so far at one table.

I ended up with a win for the weekend of $1500. On the tactical level, if I hadn't had that nice VP win in the middle of the BJ loses, I would have come extremely close to tapping out for the day (and I usually carry around an overly conservative bankroll for just a day). On the global level, that win put me about $100 bucks in the black against my losses from the three previous sessions.

So, it looks like I still have work to do at maintaining discipline and keep making bad plays. How perverse is that? It's a strange progression to go from trying to learn perfect basic strategy, to learning to bet and play according to the count, to then making intentional errors in both betting and playing!
 

Tom007

Well-Known Member
#80
Hey Rhino,

Thanks for sharing that great story, I totally believe that by the way you are able to analyze your game after each trip, you will be one of the Sonny's or Zengrifter's of this great game. I have enjoyed reading all of your posts and have learned a lot from them. Keep em coming.

Can't wait to get to your level!!!
 
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