Man, this "counting" stuff is hard.
- Thread starter EasyRhino
- Start date
Dear Diary, long update ahoy:
I am composing the first part of this letter to you in the Reno/Tahoe airport. I just completed a whirlwindish card-counting weekend, after I found myself conveniently working on a business trip in Sacramento. I was able to piggyback on top of the paid business expenses, drastically reducing the cost of the trip. Stayed at a dumpy casino/hotel in Sparks, and was able to hit up most of the larger casinos in the Reno/Sparks area (didn't mess with Tahoe/Carson city).
Executive summary: I low-rolled like a maniac on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, my bankroll took a debit of approx $325, I got my first back off, I met the Automated Monkey, and I totally reek of smoke.
I was kind of thinking that Reno was going to be sort of a Mecca for low-stakes blackjack, and I was not disappointed. There are $5 games everywhere, and a few even less. While the joints with the choicest rules are not clustered together, you can generally find serviceable single-deck games downtown, and the next store is just across the street from the previous. The crowds are less, too. Compared to southern California, where the "clusters" still have 7 miles between casinos,It's pretty sweet. Also, I've decided that I really like single deck blackjack. Having been accustomed to shoes, I was kind of thrown off at first by the rhythm. But the other thing that rapidly became apparant was all the use of index play... I mean, it shows up all the time, where shoe games tend to be pretty friggin's stagnant.
Let me write first about my first backoff. I went to the Siena on Saturday morning. It seemed like a nice joint, so I signed up for their comp card (like a dope), and played for between 1 and 1.5 hours. It was deadsville, there were two BJ tables open. Not only was I the only blackjack player for a significant portion of that time, but I might have been the only table game player when I first showed up. Then, when I asked the new PC who had come on shift if I could get a meal comp, called upstairs, and then graciously informed me that I was welcome to play any game except for blackjack. I still got the meal comp. But, as Siena has one of the better games in the city, and now they have my real name, it's a pretty annoying to have burned myself out of comp-counting. Here's what I can determine from the situation:
- While I'd like to think I'm not a total stiff, I wasn't camouflaging my play at all. I mean, I was Bs'ing with the dealers and players, drinking, and tipping, but my bets were strictly proportional to the spread, I and was taking insurance and using indices that I knew when indicated. My spread was $5-$50, one hand the whole time. (Incidentally, I lost about $10 while there).
- I didn't sense any heat from the floormen. I don't even think I saw one looking my way. There's a chance I'm just oblivious, but I'm tempted to credit the catch almost entirely to surveillance. This, of course, makes it kind of impossible to detect heat until it's too late. The most obvious countermeasure is to only play for short sessions. Others would include to play at more crowded times, and of course, developing a (for me) elaborate gambit of play modification to try to remain undetected even when directly observed.
- Anyway, when at other joints, if I knew I was just going to go in and play their single-deck game straight up, I didn't didn't sign up for a comp card or anything, and I'd also limit the length of my play to 30 min/hour (depending on when I started bet ramping). However, if the casino didn't seem to have something worth really attacking, I might sign up and play a little bit with a reduced spread (like $5-$25), just to get wired for future promotions.
Second, I'd like to write about the Truck Stop. I played on two separate occassions at The Alamo truck stop in east Sparks, and I have to say, it was friggin' awesome. I got to check off "Count cards in a truck stop" from my lifetime todo list. The joint had awesome rules, the dealers were cool, and I've decided that it's pretty fun to play cards with truckers. The table max is $100, but that is not an issue for me (and you can play three hands if you want). My perception of the place may have been colored by the fact that I had two winning sessions there, but mainly I think it was the awesomeness.
Now, I'd like to write about loss. Things were going fairly well on the trip when I stopped on Saturday night. But on Sunday, the wheels just came off my game. From peak to trough, I lost $1200, including three different places where losses were $300 in fairly short sessions. This is my personal record worst. (And when we're talking about max bets rarely exceeding $35, that's pretty serious). In conclusion, it friggin' sucked. I ran out of cash in my pocket, and had to go back and make a "withdrawal" from the trunk of my car. And while I'm sitting at the tables, losing big bet after big bet, I still had enough time to ponder if permanent damage was being done to my bankroll (it hasn't). The net loss for the trip was cushioned by earlier wins on Saturday, and a final redemptive winning session at the truck stop.
Finally, I think I learned some things about myself:
1) As advantage players go, I'm pretty lazy. The week before I drove to Reno, I didn't do any study or practice for single deck, even though bjinfo.com and casino verite were readily available. Sure, I was pretty busy with work-work, but I could have at least spent a few hours on it. Instead, all my knowledge was crammed last minute, and my first couple hours, I played the pitch game like a total ploppy (which, truth be told, was pretty amusing). Worse, I didn't make it to Raily City, Western Village, or Baldini's.
2) I am vulnerable to swings in emotions. When I'm losing, I'm a gloomy bastard, and when I'm winning, food tastes better and colors seem brighter. Thank God it doesn't effect the way I bet or play out hands, or I would have been crushed a long long time ago. (I do think it may make me less disciplined with regards to wonging or game selection, which I need to work on).
3) I definitely tip too much, and this was exacerbated in heads-up single-deck play, where the pace was much faster. However, I refuse to just not tip, this is because: a) I think of dealers are being in a service industry, like waiters or hotel maids, where tipping is just a part of being a civilized human being, and b) I expect it to but a useful element for cover. What I need to develop is some sort of "rule" to manage tipping to where it's reasonable, just like setting a bet spread.
4) The drinks in Reno are pretty damn weak. I'm a lightweight, but they weren't phasing me at all.
Postscript: It's been two weeks since I started composing this post. I felt pretty burned out riht after the trip, but after a couple days, I decided it was pretty fun. Little dubious about dealing with travel expenses as a low stakes player, but it was definitely worth it for this trip.
I am composing the first part of this letter to you in the Reno/Tahoe airport. I just completed a whirlwindish card-counting weekend, after I found myself conveniently working on a business trip in Sacramento. I was able to piggyback on top of the paid business expenses, drastically reducing the cost of the trip. Stayed at a dumpy casino/hotel in Sparks, and was able to hit up most of the larger casinos in the Reno/Sparks area (didn't mess with Tahoe/Carson city).
Executive summary: I low-rolled like a maniac on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, my bankroll took a debit of approx $325, I got my first back off, I met the Automated Monkey, and I totally reek of smoke.
I was kind of thinking that Reno was going to be sort of a Mecca for low-stakes blackjack, and I was not disappointed. There are $5 games everywhere, and a few even less. While the joints with the choicest rules are not clustered together, you can generally find serviceable single-deck games downtown, and the next store is just across the street from the previous. The crowds are less, too. Compared to southern California, where the "clusters" still have 7 miles between casinos,It's pretty sweet. Also, I've decided that I really like single deck blackjack. Having been accustomed to shoes, I was kind of thrown off at first by the rhythm. But the other thing that rapidly became apparant was all the use of index play... I mean, it shows up all the time, where shoe games tend to be pretty friggin's stagnant.
Let me write first about my first backoff. I went to the Siena on Saturday morning. It seemed like a nice joint, so I signed up for their comp card (like a dope), and played for between 1 and 1.5 hours. It was deadsville, there were two BJ tables open. Not only was I the only blackjack player for a significant portion of that time, but I might have been the only table game player when I first showed up. Then, when I asked the new PC who had come on shift if I could get a meal comp, called upstairs, and then graciously informed me that I was welcome to play any game except for blackjack. I still got the meal comp. But, as Siena has one of the better games in the city, and now they have my real name, it's a pretty annoying to have burned myself out of comp-counting. Here's what I can determine from the situation:
- While I'd like to think I'm not a total stiff, I wasn't camouflaging my play at all. I mean, I was Bs'ing with the dealers and players, drinking, and tipping, but my bets were strictly proportional to the spread, I and was taking insurance and using indices that I knew when indicated. My spread was $5-$50, one hand the whole time. (Incidentally, I lost about $10 while there).
- I didn't sense any heat from the floormen. I don't even think I saw one looking my way. There's a chance I'm just oblivious, but I'm tempted to credit the catch almost entirely to surveillance. This, of course, makes it kind of impossible to detect heat until it's too late. The most obvious countermeasure is to only play for short sessions. Others would include to play at more crowded times, and of course, developing a (for me) elaborate gambit of play modification to try to remain undetected even when directly observed.
- Anyway, when at other joints, if I knew I was just going to go in and play their single-deck game straight up, I didn't didn't sign up for a comp card or anything, and I'd also limit the length of my play to 30 min/hour (depending on when I started bet ramping). However, if the casino didn't seem to have something worth really attacking, I might sign up and play a little bit with a reduced spread (like $5-$25), just to get wired for future promotions.
Second, I'd like to write about the Truck Stop. I played on two separate occassions at The Alamo truck stop in east Sparks, and I have to say, it was friggin' awesome. I got to check off "Count cards in a truck stop" from my lifetime todo list. The joint had awesome rules, the dealers were cool, and I've decided that it's pretty fun to play cards with truckers. The table max is $100, but that is not an issue for me (and you can play three hands if you want). My perception of the place may have been colored by the fact that I had two winning sessions there, but mainly I think it was the awesomeness.
Now, I'd like to write about loss. Things were going fairly well on the trip when I stopped on Saturday night. But on Sunday, the wheels just came off my game. From peak to trough, I lost $1200, including three different places where losses were $300 in fairly short sessions. This is my personal record worst. (And when we're talking about max bets rarely exceeding $35, that's pretty serious). In conclusion, it friggin' sucked. I ran out of cash in my pocket, and had to go back and make a "withdrawal" from the trunk of my car. And while I'm sitting at the tables, losing big bet after big bet, I still had enough time to ponder if permanent damage was being done to my bankroll (it hasn't). The net loss for the trip was cushioned by earlier wins on Saturday, and a final redemptive winning session at the truck stop.
Finally, I think I learned some things about myself:
1) As advantage players go, I'm pretty lazy. The week before I drove to Reno, I didn't do any study or practice for single deck, even though bjinfo.com and casino verite were readily available. Sure, I was pretty busy with work-work, but I could have at least spent a few hours on it. Instead, all my knowledge was crammed last minute, and my first couple hours, I played the pitch game like a total ploppy (which, truth be told, was pretty amusing). Worse, I didn't make it to Raily City, Western Village, or Baldini's.
2) I am vulnerable to swings in emotions. When I'm losing, I'm a gloomy bastard, and when I'm winning, food tastes better and colors seem brighter. Thank God it doesn't effect the way I bet or play out hands, or I would have been crushed a long long time ago. (I do think it may make me less disciplined with regards to wonging or game selection, which I need to work on).
3) I definitely tip too much, and this was exacerbated in heads-up single-deck play, where the pace was much faster. However, I refuse to just not tip, this is because: a) I think of dealers are being in a service industry, like waiters or hotel maids, where tipping is just a part of being a civilized human being, and b) I expect it to but a useful element for cover. What I need to develop is some sort of "rule" to manage tipping to where it's reasonable, just like setting a bet spread.
4) The drinks in Reno are pretty damn weak. I'm a lightweight, but they weren't phasing me at all.
Postscript: It's been two weeks since I started composing this post. I felt pretty burned out riht after the trip, but after a couple days, I decided it was pretty fun. Little dubious about dealing with travel expenses as a low stakes player, but it was definitely worth it for this trip.
Last week, (week after the Reno trip). I did a little more playing at some local joints. On Friday night, at one of my "usual" places, I had my best winning session (up $960, 3 hours). It was ridiculous, I was winning all kinds of stuff I had no business winning. I couldn't rathole chips fast enough. The dealer started running low on greens, and I had to color up to blacks so she could keep her tray full. It was a fun feeling.
I ended up in a nice symbiotic (parasitic?) relationship with a civilian. there were 3 other people at the table. Lady next to me was playing two hands. When the count finally turned positive, she started playing one. I then asked if I could use that spot, and played two hands until the count went negative again. When I stopped, she started playing the spot. I guess parasitic really is the better word for it.
On Saturday I did some local scouting. Went to Viejas casino, which I hadn't been to for a couple years (before I learned to count). I had remembered it as being dead to me, and I was right. The low stakes games were 8D shoes, $10 and $15 minimums, crappy penetration, and no surrender. Enough tables were closed, and the crowds were enough, that it made wonging tough. The "$5 blackjack 24/7" they had been advertising was a single table with a CSM. The fact that I lost a few hundred when wonging into high counts didn't help my impression.
Also went to Golden Acorn, way the hell out near El Camp (halfway to Mexicali, basically). On paper, this looked interesting because it was the only S17 game in the area, and the minimums were $3 and $5. However, there were only two tables open at the time, no surrender, and penetration wasn't good. It seemed to be full of high school seniors.
In non-counting news, the shutdowns of neteller and click2pay have frozen a substantial portion of my gambling bankroll, which is pretty annoying. I was looking forward to using some of the online money to increase my bet spread, but that's on hold for a while.
I ended up in a nice symbiotic (parasitic?) relationship with a civilian. there were 3 other people at the table. Lady next to me was playing two hands. When the count finally turned positive, she started playing one. I then asked if I could use that spot, and played two hands until the count went negative again. When I stopped, she started playing the spot. I guess parasitic really is the better word for it.
On Saturday I did some local scouting. Went to Viejas casino, which I hadn't been to for a couple years (before I learned to count). I had remembered it as being dead to me, and I was right. The low stakes games were 8D shoes, $10 and $15 minimums, crappy penetration, and no surrender. Enough tables were closed, and the crowds were enough, that it made wonging tough. The "$5 blackjack 24/7" they had been advertising was a single table with a CSM. The fact that I lost a few hundred when wonging into high counts didn't help my impression.
Also went to Golden Acorn, way the hell out near El Camp (halfway to Mexicali, basically). On paper, this looked interesting because it was the only S17 game in the area, and the minimums were $3 and $5. However, there were only two tables open at the time, no surrender, and penetration wasn't good. It seemed to be full of high school seniors.
In non-counting news, the shutdowns of neteller and click2pay have frozen a substantial portion of my gambling bankroll, which is pretty annoying. I was looking forward to using some of the online money to increase my bet spread, but that's on hold for a while.
Yeah, but I did get to see Sparks in the winter 
Oh, and I forgot, I was able to use some of my online bonus-hustling skills at the Peppermill. They had a $100 first hour's slot loss reimbursement going on for new card members, so I signed up, found a machine that was $5 a pull, ended up winning $137, and then threw away the coupon.
Oh, and I forgot, I was able to use some of my online bonus-hustling skills at the Peppermill. They had a $100 first hour's slot loss reimbursement going on for new card members, so I signed up, found a machine that was $5 a pull, ended up winning $137, and then threw away the coupon.
Take it easy" Easy"
Your recount of the wild weekend in Reno was very typical and also very interesting. You are not the first member of this forum that has gotten the "Golden Boot" award from the good 'ol Siena. Give it about 6-8 mos. and you should be able to return with no problemo. If you're wondering about getting the axe, let me provide two obvious "boo boos" you made for that place. #1-DO NOT USE A 10:1 SPREAD IN A SINGLE DECK GAME!! That's enough for the Pope to get tossed.#2-Knowing the floor layout there and the time of day, you probably were the only customer the "eye" had to concentrate on so he wouldn't fall asleep! It's a small,visible area and they usually only keep clusters open until it gets busy, so you were directly in the "bullseye". In essence, know your ratios; both as to spread and as to survelliance vs.players; and keep those sessions short(< 1 hr.). There's enough candy jars in the shop(Reno) so you don't have to get caught with your hand in one!
BTW, tell the Monk to smack himself with a banana if he let you use that spread on SD. HE KNOWS BETTER!(unless he was setting you up as a joke).As for the weak booze,it doesn't take much to get you goin' at 4,900 ft. above sea level.
Your recount of the wild weekend in Reno was very typical and also very interesting. You are not the first member of this forum that has gotten the "Golden Boot" award from the good 'ol Siena. Give it about 6-8 mos. and you should be able to return with no problemo. If you're wondering about getting the axe, let me provide two obvious "boo boos" you made for that place. #1-DO NOT USE A 10:1 SPREAD IN A SINGLE DECK GAME!! That's enough for the Pope to get tossed.#2-Knowing the floor layout there and the time of day, you probably were the only customer the "eye" had to concentrate on so he wouldn't fall asleep! It's a small,visible area and they usually only keep clusters open until it gets busy, so you were directly in the "bullseye". In essence, know your ratios; both as to spread and as to survelliance vs.players; and keep those sessions short(< 1 hr.). There's enough candy jars in the shop(Reno) so you don't have to get caught with your hand in one!
BTW, tell the Monk to smack himself with a banana if he let you use that spread on SD. HE KNOWS BETTER!(unless he was setting you up as a joke).As for the weak booze,it doesn't take much to get you goin' at 4,900 ft. above sea level.
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Yes. (to be fair, it was only $5-$50, but still a 10x spread)
Yes.
Oops. And yes.
And don't forget the biggest doof, I GAVE THEM MY REAL NAME! Why am I doing that when I have no feel at all for a joint? Because I'm a noob, that's why.
And go easy on the Monkey, I hadn't even met up with him at that point, Siena was only the third place I had even been to in town.
Yes.
Oops. And yes.
And don't forget the biggest doof, I GAVE THEM MY REAL NAME! Why am I doing that when I have no feel at all for a joint? Because I'm a noob, that's why.
And go easy on the Monkey, I hadn't even met up with him at that point, Siena was only the third place I had even been to in town.
Last Weekend:
Two days, two different local casinos. Both were crowded, making it difficult to get into and out of tables. Both places, started taking losses early, then gradually increasing balance over course a really long several hours. Net loss for the weekend was $10, but man, it felt like I was just spinning my wheels. While it's worse to lose (much!), the feeling that you're just wasting time at this can be extremely annoying.
The narrow loss did, however, reinforce the importance of comps for a low-roller such as myself.
This weekend:
A three day weekend for me, because I had President's day off. Was going to put it to good use locally.
On saturday, went to one of my usual haunts. I played some golf that day with friends, so got to go in in my pretty golf clothes, to at least give the staff a different "look" (they know me, I'm just commenting more from the fashion perspective). After initial wong-in, ended spending a lot of time at one table with about three other players. However, I had enough room to spread to two hands when the count was positive. Experienced a massive run of good luck, especially during high counts when I spread to two hands (and the civilians gave me the credit). Lady next to me started rubbing me for good luck. But there was really nothing special about the play. Was blessed with lots of high counts, so only had to be driven off to one "bathroom break" where, I'm told, everything went to hell as soon as I left. One particular hand turned into a monster, had elevated bets out (2x$30), one one of the hands I kept getting sixes, and split it to four hands, and doubled once or twice. Won all hands so that was pretty nice. Net win from that session was about $840, which puts it as my second biggest win. I was ratholing like a maniac, but then I remembered the last big win at this casino, where $900 at the cashier drew a crowd of four employees to confirm it, so I took about half the total, cashed out, drove 20 minutes to a nearby joint and back to cash a coupon, then cashed the remaining half.
Sunday, went to another joint. Very crowded (usually is on weekend, but a Chinese New Year thing might have exacerbated it). Found a $5 table and just camped out at it. After a couple hours the limit was raised to $10, but I was grandfathered in at the old rate, and I clung to that stool for dear life. But a full seven-spot table doesn't leave a lot of opportunity for action (and not much was had). Kept playing and playing trying to find an opportunity, or another table. Fatigue was starting to become a factor, although I learned that I can keep a count fairly well while nearly falling asleep (just not well enough that I didn't need a break). Late at night, after 1AM or so, some of the tables began to open up, that's when I was able to make some slight progress, and also spotted the camouflaged asian counter. I began to fool myself with my chip ratholing, because I felt I was having a losing session, but had actually won about $30 at the end of 8 or so hours.
Also, while BS'ing with one of the dealers (who I had seen around but not played with much), he was regaling me with a story of a trip to the Philippines. I wasn't able to get the details, but I think he's a card counter. While he seems like a cool enough guy, my play would probably stick out to him like a beacon. Fortunately, I don't think I saw a positive count while he was dealing. I think I'm going to have to chat him up next time I see him, and get some details. Maybe I can listen with rapt amazement as he tells me wild stories of this "advantage play" stuff.
This was the day I probably got the most ploppy flak. It was generally for BS plays, not the index deviations. The hardest thing (after say, doubling A,7 vs 2) when confronted by the ploppy was to not say: "Hell, in a count this high, I'd be an idiot not to!" I gotta work on that.
Oh, also, for a portion of this session, I was trapped at an Unhappy Table. Older lady next "confiding" to me, but was just generally complaining about the dealers, other players, etc. And not in the harmless whining way that I complain, she was just damn cranky. But even worse, she kept complaining about the stakes she was playing, saying things like "you can't get anywhere betting red chips" and "I feel like I'm just wasting my time here" (she said she had often played for higher stakes in the past). To be honest, I began to take umbrage at her remarks. At first, I argued passionately in favor of the low-roller, and how the very idea that one could just "waste time" and play for a lengthy session with relatively low expense and risk was a great feature being offered by the casino. After more complaining, I just began gesturing at her stack of nickels and said "Look! You've got a hundred bucks right there! Take half of it, put it in the betting circle, and fire it up!", hoping that she'd either lose, and go home, or win, and go home, quickly. She didn't take my advice.
Monday, I had the notion of a little road trip through Indian country, but a late start and a monsoon slowed me down a bit.
Went to the same joint I went to on Saturday (I had two coupons to cash). Was surprised to see an empty table, and got in one shoe of heads-up play (where the count did turn positive), and a few shoes where the table was getting gradually more and more full. Was able to spread to two hands for much of this period, at least. Ended up winning about $340 (including a few big hands), which was really more than I had in mind, since I had just had a big win from them two days earlier. Oops.
Kept driving to another joint that I had only been too once, briefly. Had three tables in operation with 8D shoes, a $5 table which was totally full, and two sparsely populated $10 tables. Backcounting for quite a while and finally got a positive count, wonged in, and played through a few shoes with between 0 and 2 other people (plenty of room for hand-spreading). Still not very used to 8D, so the penetration seemed pretty horrible at 2 decks (although I guess that's not uncommon?). Dealers seemed nice enough though, and managed to win almost $150.
Went to third joint, noticed that all the $15 tables were empty, the $10 tables were crowded. Backcounted a few shoes which went nowhere, noticed that the penetration wasn't that hot, and decided it was late and I wanted to go home.
For the weekend, I won $1320. Let's ponder that for a second. Most of this weekend, I was playing a $10-$50 (or 2x$35) spread, in shoe games, using a pretty basic counting system. There's hardly any profit expectation in there at all. And yet, I still had green chips practically leaping into my pocket. All this does is reinforce - even more - my fears of The Big One coming along and wiping me out.
And to be fair, in Reno, I lost a similar amount of dough, in a much shorter amount of time. But that was just one day, which was bracketed before and after by nice wins. I haven't had a Drought From Hell yet, and the longer I avoid it, the more I dread it.
Two days, two different local casinos. Both were crowded, making it difficult to get into and out of tables. Both places, started taking losses early, then gradually increasing balance over course a really long several hours. Net loss for the weekend was $10, but man, it felt like I was just spinning my wheels. While it's worse to lose (much!), the feeling that you're just wasting time at this can be extremely annoying.
The narrow loss did, however, reinforce the importance of comps for a low-roller such as myself.
This weekend:
A three day weekend for me, because I had President's day off. Was going to put it to good use locally.
On saturday, went to one of my usual haunts. I played some golf that day with friends, so got to go in in my pretty golf clothes, to at least give the staff a different "look" (they know me, I'm just commenting more from the fashion perspective). After initial wong-in, ended spending a lot of time at one table with about three other players. However, I had enough room to spread to two hands when the count was positive. Experienced a massive run of good luck, especially during high counts when I spread to two hands (and the civilians gave me the credit). Lady next to me started rubbing me for good luck. But there was really nothing special about the play. Was blessed with lots of high counts, so only had to be driven off to one "bathroom break" where, I'm told, everything went to hell as soon as I left. One particular hand turned into a monster, had elevated bets out (2x$30), one one of the hands I kept getting sixes, and split it to four hands, and doubled once or twice. Won all hands so that was pretty nice. Net win from that session was about $840, which puts it as my second biggest win. I was ratholing like a maniac, but then I remembered the last big win at this casino, where $900 at the cashier drew a crowd of four employees to confirm it, so I took about half the total, cashed out, drove 20 minutes to a nearby joint and back to cash a coupon, then cashed the remaining half.
Sunday, went to another joint. Very crowded (usually is on weekend, but a Chinese New Year thing might have exacerbated it). Found a $5 table and just camped out at it. After a couple hours the limit was raised to $10, but I was grandfathered in at the old rate, and I clung to that stool for dear life. But a full seven-spot table doesn't leave a lot of opportunity for action (and not much was had). Kept playing and playing trying to find an opportunity, or another table. Fatigue was starting to become a factor, although I learned that I can keep a count fairly well while nearly falling asleep (just not well enough that I didn't need a break). Late at night, after 1AM or so, some of the tables began to open up, that's when I was able to make some slight progress, and also spotted the camouflaged asian counter. I began to fool myself with my chip ratholing, because I felt I was having a losing session, but had actually won about $30 at the end of 8 or so hours.
Also, while BS'ing with one of the dealers (who I had seen around but not played with much), he was regaling me with a story of a trip to the Philippines. I wasn't able to get the details, but I think he's a card counter. While he seems like a cool enough guy, my play would probably stick out to him like a beacon. Fortunately, I don't think I saw a positive count while he was dealing. I think I'm going to have to chat him up next time I see him, and get some details. Maybe I can listen with rapt amazement as he tells me wild stories of this "advantage play" stuff.
This was the day I probably got the most ploppy flak. It was generally for BS plays, not the index deviations. The hardest thing (after say, doubling A,7 vs 2) when confronted by the ploppy was to not say: "Hell, in a count this high, I'd be an idiot not to!" I gotta work on that.
Oh, also, for a portion of this session, I was trapped at an Unhappy Table. Older lady next "confiding" to me, but was just generally complaining about the dealers, other players, etc. And not in the harmless whining way that I complain, she was just damn cranky. But even worse, she kept complaining about the stakes she was playing, saying things like "you can't get anywhere betting red chips" and "I feel like I'm just wasting my time here" (she said she had often played for higher stakes in the past). To be honest, I began to take umbrage at her remarks. At first, I argued passionately in favor of the low-roller, and how the very idea that one could just "waste time" and play for a lengthy session with relatively low expense and risk was a great feature being offered by the casino. After more complaining, I just began gesturing at her stack of nickels and said "Look! You've got a hundred bucks right there! Take half of it, put it in the betting circle, and fire it up!", hoping that she'd either lose, and go home, or win, and go home, quickly. She didn't take my advice.
Monday, I had the notion of a little road trip through Indian country, but a late start and a monsoon slowed me down a bit.
Went to the same joint I went to on Saturday (I had two coupons to cash). Was surprised to see an empty table, and got in one shoe of heads-up play (where the count did turn positive), and a few shoes where the table was getting gradually more and more full. Was able to spread to two hands for much of this period, at least. Ended up winning about $340 (including a few big hands), which was really more than I had in mind, since I had just had a big win from them two days earlier. Oops.
Kept driving to another joint that I had only been too once, briefly. Had three tables in operation with 8D shoes, a $5 table which was totally full, and two sparsely populated $10 tables. Backcounting for quite a while and finally got a positive count, wonged in, and played through a few shoes with between 0 and 2 other people (plenty of room for hand-spreading). Still not very used to 8D, so the penetration seemed pretty horrible at 2 decks (although I guess that's not uncommon?). Dealers seemed nice enough though, and managed to win almost $150.
Went to third joint, noticed that all the $15 tables were empty, the $10 tables were crowded. Backcounted a few shoes which went nowhere, noticed that the penetration wasn't that hot, and decided it was late and I wanted to go home.
For the weekend, I won $1320. Let's ponder that for a second. Most of this weekend, I was playing a $10-$50 (or 2x$35) spread, in shoe games, using a pretty basic counting system. There's hardly any profit expectation in there at all. And yet, I still had green chips practically leaping into my pocket. All this does is reinforce - even more - my fears of The Big One coming along and wiping me out.
And to be fair, in Reno, I lost a similar amount of dough, in a much shorter amount of time. But that was just one day, which was bracketed before and after by nice wins. I haven't had a Drought From Hell yet, and the longer I avoid it, the more I dread it.
Dear Diary: I am too stupid to live.
Friday night, I was at a local shop. Bounced from a crowded 6D game to an empty 8D table. Of course, as soon as you sit down somewhere, a few people gradually joined in. As the shoe progressed, the count went nuts. I began deploying two-handed versions of my max bet with regularity, but the cards just weren't falling right, I lost a couple-few hundred bucks in the shoe.
Then, when the dealer was reloading the shoe, I realized I had used an initial running count for a 6D game for the entire shoe! Thereby overestimating my advantage, and thereby overbetting substantially. Oh my god, I had to strain to prevent from kicking my own ass right there at the casino.
Looking back at it, the count was so high for much of that shoe that the running count error of 6 didn't actually affect my bets in a practical way for too many hands, I think the negative results were probably 60-70% bad luck, and 30-40% stupidity. But man, it was stupid.
The rest of the night, a lucky streak while min-betting reduced some damage, and I bounced to two other casinos. Penetration wasn't very good anywhere, but I did stumble into a really juicy count (which yielded basically zero results). Net winnings for the weekend were $6. Woo.
In other news, I was actually able to withdraw a bunch of money (just over $6k) from my click2pay e-wallet that I was using for online bonus hustling and successfully wire it to my bank (miracle of miracles!). This is my first major profit-taking from online gambling (which I started about the same time as counting). More significantly, I'm adding it to my card-counting bankroll, meaning it will be increasing from roughly $3000 to roughly $9000. Hokey smokes, that's going to have a material impact on my play.
Friday night, I was at a local shop. Bounced from a crowded 6D game to an empty 8D table. Of course, as soon as you sit down somewhere, a few people gradually joined in. As the shoe progressed, the count went nuts. I began deploying two-handed versions of my max bet with regularity, but the cards just weren't falling right, I lost a couple-few hundred bucks in the shoe.
Then, when the dealer was reloading the shoe, I realized I had used an initial running count for a 6D game for the entire shoe! Thereby overestimating my advantage, and thereby overbetting substantially. Oh my god, I had to strain to prevent from kicking my own ass right there at the casino.
Looking back at it, the count was so high for much of that shoe that the running count error of 6 didn't actually affect my bets in a practical way for too many hands, I think the negative results were probably 60-70% bad luck, and 30-40% stupidity. But man, it was stupid.
The rest of the night, a lucky streak while min-betting reduced some damage, and I bounced to two other casinos. Penetration wasn't very good anywhere, but I did stumble into a really juicy count (which yielded basically zero results). Net winnings for the weekend were $6. Woo.
In other news, I was actually able to withdraw a bunch of money (just over $6k) from my click2pay e-wallet that I was using for online bonus hustling and successfully wire it to my bank (miracle of miracles!). This is my first major profit-taking from online gambling (which I started about the same time as counting). More significantly, I'm adding it to my card-counting bankroll, meaning it will be increasing from roughly $3000 to roughly $9000. Hokey smokes, that's going to have a material impact on my play.
Wasn't able to do any playing for two weeks, thanks to my pesky real job's business trip from hell. So it was definitely time to pay my local Indians a visit. And this time, I got to use my recently increased bet spread ($100 max bet)
The first day was fairly uneventful. I was at moderately full tables, so I was doing 2x$75 as my max bet. The ups and downs were minor, but I eked out a tiny profit. Interestingly, at the casino I've heard "checks play" called on $100 hands (including hearing it that same day), there was no callout when I placed my bet. Sweet. Since this shop has a decent game and the dealers are cool, I don't want to piss them off.
However, I did have what I think would be a breakdown of discipline. Was at another joint trying to wong between their four 8D shoes. Backcounting yielded nothing for quite a while (hour or so), I got antsy. Finally, a $15 min table (the lowest), empied out completely, so I though I'd sit down and see what I could push the count myself. Lost my $100 really quickly (don't think I won a hand), and by the end of it, the running count was 2 worse than when I started, so I walked away. While it was a nasty stretch of luck, I think that $15 is an unacceptable "waiting bet" in a 8D game, where there are so many waiting bets in the first place. I shall endeavor to avoid that in the future.
Sunday the swings were more noticeable. Took some losses early (couple hundred bucks). But later, I found myself heads-up with the dealer (rare on a weekend!). The count got good, and I began deploying the new max bet (1x$100). I ended up on a really nice winning streak, where I probably won 10 hands where I lost only two. I got to actually bet with black chips for the first time, which was pretty sweet, it made me feel like I had "graduated". What was most notable was I produced a little bit of "whale effect" on the ploppies. As I was on my streak, two other players sat down at the table, pulled out some chips or cash, but they didn't play. I suppose that they were either intimidated by my Big Slinging, or they were just respecting the streak. I didn't mind, as it kept for good cards for myself.
The floorman at this table spent a lot of time watching the game. At first I was worried it was heat, but then I began to suspect he was actually just bored (he was watching other games pretty closely too). I did pester him for a comp to keep him busy. Also, when he was watching, I deployed some modest cover. Mainly, I didn't reduce my bet if I won a hand, although I'd still switch between one and two spots pretty freely, and didn't have too many qualms about increasing bets. After the shuffle after The Streak, I de-escalated my bets off the top of the shoe step-wise, $50-$25-$15-$10, dropping after each loss. I know it's a minimal level of cover, but I was pretty proud of myself for managing the self-control to even do that.
I won about $660 over the weekend, which I am very happy about. However, on the drive home, I thought to myself "What would have happen if The Streak's results were inverted?". Not only would I have lost a crapload of money, but there's a decent chance that the $1600 in cash I had pulled for the weekend would have tapped out completely. It's going to take some trial and effort to determine the proper trip bankroll (or in my usual case, weekend bankroll).
And next weekend, I might be going to Vegas. Yay!
The first day was fairly uneventful. I was at moderately full tables, so I was doing 2x$75 as my max bet. The ups and downs were minor, but I eked out a tiny profit. Interestingly, at the casino I've heard "checks play" called on $100 hands (including hearing it that same day), there was no callout when I placed my bet. Sweet. Since this shop has a decent game and the dealers are cool, I don't want to piss them off.
However, I did have what I think would be a breakdown of discipline. Was at another joint trying to wong between their four 8D shoes. Backcounting yielded nothing for quite a while (hour or so), I got antsy. Finally, a $15 min table (the lowest), empied out completely, so I though I'd sit down and see what I could push the count myself. Lost my $100 really quickly (don't think I won a hand), and by the end of it, the running count was 2 worse than when I started, so I walked away. While it was a nasty stretch of luck, I think that $15 is an unacceptable "waiting bet" in a 8D game, where there are so many waiting bets in the first place. I shall endeavor to avoid that in the future.
Sunday the swings were more noticeable. Took some losses early (couple hundred bucks). But later, I found myself heads-up with the dealer (rare on a weekend!). The count got good, and I began deploying the new max bet (1x$100). I ended up on a really nice winning streak, where I probably won 10 hands where I lost only two. I got to actually bet with black chips for the first time, which was pretty sweet, it made me feel like I had "graduated". What was most notable was I produced a little bit of "whale effect" on the ploppies. As I was on my streak, two other players sat down at the table, pulled out some chips or cash, but they didn't play. I suppose that they were either intimidated by my Big Slinging, or they were just respecting the streak. I didn't mind, as it kept for good cards for myself.
The floorman at this table spent a lot of time watching the game. At first I was worried it was heat, but then I began to suspect he was actually just bored (he was watching other games pretty closely too). I did pester him for a comp to keep him busy. Also, when he was watching, I deployed some modest cover. Mainly, I didn't reduce my bet if I won a hand, although I'd still switch between one and two spots pretty freely, and didn't have too many qualms about increasing bets. After the shuffle after The Streak, I de-escalated my bets off the top of the shoe step-wise, $50-$25-$15-$10, dropping after each loss. I know it's a minimal level of cover, but I was pretty proud of myself for managing the self-control to even do that.
I won about $660 over the weekend, which I am very happy about. However, on the drive home, I thought to myself "What would have happen if The Streak's results were inverted?". Not only would I have lost a crapload of money, but there's a decent chance that the $1600 in cash I had pulled for the weekend would have tapped out completely. It's going to take some trial and effort to determine the proper trip bankroll (or in my usual case, weekend bankroll).
And next weekend, I might be going to Vegas. Yay!
Vegas baby, Vegas...
Vegas Diary, day before (V minus 1)
Arranged to take friday off work. Dropped my car off at the shop for maintenance, picked up a loaner car. Left town about 7:30pm. The loaner car was an Audi A3, neat little car, and it can go fast, got it up to 100mph when I wasn't paying attention for a bit. Not a lot to do when driving in the Mojave, had to stop for a 30 minute nap when I got tired.
Arrive at Green Valley Ranch at about 1:00AM (my stepdad was in Vegas for a conference, offered to share the room). Even though I'm beat, I make a quick stop at the tables. Sit down at a $5 6D game. Nothing special, rules-wise, and I'm really tired. Play one shoe, heads-up, the count goes nuclear, and I end up winning over $300.
And the room? There was a clerical error or something, and the room was a suite that's twice as big as my apartment. 4 flat screen TV's, full dining table, etc. Nice. (noise from the nightclub's patio was a minor factor at night, though).
Friday (V Day)
Get up semi early (8-9am), and wander downstairs. Find a sparsely populated double deck game (GVR's DD game is pretty competent). Play for like 20 minutes, win a little over $100. Now it's time for corn flakes.
Go to the bank and withdraw my "real" gambling bankroll. I'm fearing a huge losing streak this trip, so I pull cash so I have $3k in my pocket. I feel like a drug dealer. Then I go to the offices of the Las Vegas Advisor (near the Rio), and pick up my Pocketbook of Values. Go on a mini-coupon run in the area.
I was surprised that The Palms had reasonable 8D games to offer. I thought they marketed to hipster doofuses. Did some backcounting, and played through a shoe or two. Won about $60. Also, hot cocktail waitresses.
Went by Palace Station to cash a coupon. Seemed to have good games on paper, but the DD games were too expensive, and the 6D games were very full. Walked up to the last table with the last spot available, stood there (not even a free chair!) and placed my bet with my match play. Ended up drawing to a five-card 21. Dealer flips over a 20, everyone loses but me. I pick up the chips, wish the table luck, and walk off, and a couple ploppies got pissed. The most pissed I've gotten a ploppy at me. I mean... Atlantic City pissed. Glad I wasn't trying to stay and play.
Moved over to the Stratosphere to check out their funbook. Nice funbook. Played some of their DD game at a $10 table (also competent). Two other guys at the table, and oh look! One of them's counting cards! But I was there first! We must be using different counts, but he's definitely doing a straight counting game. Then the old civilian guy leaves, so it's just us two. Even worse, me and this guy are - in terms of style and personality - basically the same person, except he was a little older. He was probably at the table for about 30 minutes, just being generally amused by the situation, but then decided it was ridiculous and left. Counter-boy also decided to color up at the same time. Sheesh, what a bunch of amateurs we are. Left with $10 more than I came in with.
After a break for lunch and stuff, I dragged my stepdad Downtown.
Made a beeline to El Cortez. I had hyped this up in my mind, and was kind of looking forward to the prospect of being thrown out. However, I didn't want to get thrown out instantly, so I sat at their doubledeck table (2 or 3 other players there). I was betting $10, maxing out at around $75 in very high counts, never spreading to two hands. The dealer was pretty new, and made lots of little playing or payout mistakes, so everyone had to keep on their toes. Also, EC had a side bet that paid 2.5 to 1 on a certain combo, so the game moved glacially slow.
Oh, and did I mention the penetration? Dear god it was wonderful, dealt down to half a deck every single time, and the cards were even dealt out from a shoe, face up. Was it christmas already?
As for heat, well, I was kind of disappointed. There wasn't any. Once my bets crossed about $50, the dealer called "checks play". Fortunately, the count stayed high (or at least high enough), where I could just keep that bet out there at a constant amount, and the dealer called out "checks play" time after time. Finally, the count just couldn't support that bet any more, so I bet one green with a couple reds, and the dealer still called "checks play". Sweet. By this point, the effect on the pit seemed to be be the same as crying wolf. After an hour ended up winning nearly $500. Plus, Hal even won a tiny bit on the slots.
By now, it was Friday night, and Freemont street was packed. Had a hard time finding any open table, let alone a good one. Plus, every time we stopped somewhere, Hal got glued to a slot machine. I went into Golden Gate to play a coupon, and ended up in a heads-up 6D shoe game. It was a bad shoe game (no surrender, not even DAS, I think). Penetration was also poor (probably 2 decks cut off) but I needed to kill time, so there I was. After a bit a trio of youngish guys came in and were playing $100 or so a hand. Anyway, I ended up in a count with two large bets out ($70 ish, all red). Then I started getting 8's, and double downs, and my 2x bets turned into 5x or 6x bets. I was ten bucks short on one double down, so I let the guy next to me top it off rather than go in my wallet. Dealer busted, so that turned into a great hand, the dealer actually ran out of reds paying me off. As you might guess this was my best session of the trip, ending up $780. (Hal got mauled by their slots).
... as you may have noticed, I hadn't yet had a losing session. Needless to say, I was waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Went by Four Queens, heard that they had a single deck game. They did, but it was full. Sat down at a doubledeck game, and realized after a bit that it wasn't that great (fairly full table, and no DAS). Not only that, but I got a little unlucky, and booked a loss of $108. I was a little mad at myself for not noticing the little sign about nDAS before I sat down.
The scene downtown was too crowded and loud for either of our tastes, so we called it a night. It did seem like people were just having more fun downtown than on the strip.
Saturday (V plus 1)
Checked out GVR for breakfast. Played the doubledeck game for only like 20 minutes, won about $260. Crazy.
Wanted to hit up the south strip, so went to Monte Carlo (it looked affordable for my bankroll). What a weird mismash of tables. All shoe games, but some are $10 6D H17, some are $10 8D H17, and some are $25 8D S17. Strange. This was more like playing back home, so I did some backcounting and wonging. When I handed my players card to the floor supervisor, I was informed that $10 bets weren't enough to get rated, it required $25 bets, and my card was returned. After a while, when I bet 2x$50, the supervisor asked for my card again.
I was backcounting one of the 8D tables where one guy was playing. Not even halfway in the shoe, the count got pretty good, so I wonged in, betting around $25 or $50. I hadn't actually noticed that it was a $25 table until I tried to spread to two hands with insufficient bets (doh). However, the count very quickly went off the charts, and I was basically just betting 2x$75 for the next four decks out of the shoe. And what happened here was terrifying. I had sat down with about $150 in random chips. Gone. Bought in for $200. Gone. Another $200. Gone. Another $300, lost $200 very quickly. I had just seen $700 evaporate in front of me in 5 minutes. Here was that taste of that negative variance I was waiting for with my newly upgraded bet spread. The good news? While it was scary, I was pretty much on autopilot, and it didn't affect my play.
Also, we were still playing the same shoe. So after getting clobberated, I went on a fearsome winning streak, which basically repaired all the damage. I had to take a break and catch my break. Played a little more. Finally I did the math, and I figured left with $80 more than when I started.
(Postscript: next day, while packing, I found a $100 Monte Carlo chip. So I guess I did better than I thought).
Went to Caesar's. That was a big "WTF?!" moment for me, and I think I learned a valuable lesson about looking at a two-month-old edition of CBJN. On paper, it seemed like I'd find a good game. In actuality, what I encountered was a war crime of blackjack. Shoe games, double 9, 10, 11, only, no DAS, and of course, no surrender. Also, the games were all $15 or $25, which is just too much for me. It was only in the high-ish roller $50 and $100 games where you got DOA and DAS back. The whole situation just enraged me. More than CSMs enrage me!
Went on a really unpleasant driving, parking, and walking experience to get from Monte Carlo to the Wynn, where we were going to see a show. I'm never going to park at the IP ever again, even if it's the last parking garage on earth. It's a total rat's nest. The show was Monty Python's Spamalot and it was highly enjoyable.
Walked across the street to New Frontier, and started out at a heads up 6D game (another couple players were in and out). Dealer seemed pretty sharp, knew his basic strategy. Worse, when my bets rose near the end of the shoe, he moved the cut card on the next shoe from about 1.5 decks to 2+ decks. Count still got good, and bets still rose, and next shoe, the cutoff point was nearly 50%. Holy crap, I was getting douched. That's when I stopped tipping. Amusingly, I still got in a few big bets on that last shoe, and decided it was time (under 1 hour total) to get out of dodge. Won $47.50.
It was St. Patty's day, so the whole "loud/crowded" effect began to dominate, so it was time to call it a night again.
Sunday (V plus two)
Dropped by the GVR table games section again, sat down at a $10 double deck game next to an asian lady who was betting $100+ a hand. After about 2 hands, I realize that I'm at a Super Fun 21 table. Jesus, I'm too stupid to live again. But the count had gotten really high, so I tried some big bets (what the hell, right?), and lost them. Then I moved to a proper blackjack table. One other lady was there, she busted out after a while, then the asian lady moved over, too. She seemed to be a regular. Then I had a hand where I doubled A,7 vs a 2, and she expressed her alarm. We both one the hand, but she got up and left. She wasn't a jerk or anything, but I was pretty sure I spooked her. The dealer agreed. Total length of the session was almost 1.5 hours. Was steaming a bit from the losses at the SF21 table. Walked away with $30 more than when I started.
Then, I finally made it to Slots-a-Fun, which I heard had a good low-roller game. Found an empty $5 doubledeck game (D8, but S17 and DAS allowed). One other lady sat down and we played at the same time. Count got high, placed some big bets, and lost them. Dealer commented on my hitting of 16s, pointed out the single deck 6:5 game next door, and noted the nonchalance with which I went into my wallet for more funds (and at this point, I had all my cash in there, and I think he had an angle on it, so I looked like a drug dealer again). He beat me with yet another big bet out, but the count was extra-juicy. Right as I'm about to put out a whopper of a bet he says "here, let me shuffle these up for you, start fresh". Inside my mind screamed "Nooo!", but my outside just shrugged and made a dopey expression.
Anyway, it was time for a new dealer, she seemed nice enough. Had a bunch of low-count runs, or cases where the count didn't get high until too late before the shuffle, but I was already concerned. Then the count spikes on one hand just as three people sit at the table. Dealer looks, sees 3 new people, and me with two bets out now, and decides to shuffle again. I think "maybe it's because there's too many players". But now I was just playing to see confirm what was going on. I played my small bets, and 3 or 4 times, when I would just get ready to place a big bet, she would shuffle up. (not after they were placed, but before)
Holy ****, I was being preferentially shuffled!. I hadn't ever seen this before, but I guess the dealer (maybe even both dealers), could count, and were shuffling up every time it got high, while still being all smiles and wishing the players luck. I got pretty pissed off, mainly at the seeming duplicity of the act. Not only that, but it was hurting the low-rolling college kids at the table just as bad as it was hurting me. It seemed like a real waste of card-counting-dealer talent to use on a game with a $5 minimum.
After thinking about it some more, I can see why a casino might use this policy. Even a smoothly-delivered backoff could create a customer service issue if the player turned out not to be counting. While with this method, ploppies don't really know what's happening, and the card counter leaves. However, the two-faced nature of it really pissed me off.
I finally bailed, and had $350 less than when I started. Then I drove home, and got to experience Sunday traffic on I-15. Yuck. Probably added 40 minutes to the drive compared to Thursday night.
Conclusions and Navel-Gazing.
I ended up inflating my bankroll by almost $1600 (I stole $20 out of it to pay for the show ticket). Considering my EV for the weekend was probably $100-$200, this was a damn good result. Not only did I far exceed EV, but I also did it with much less turbulence than I had expected. Basically, the trip was a little bit charmed. It also means I haven't yet experienced a truly nasty swing with increased bets, which is bad from an experiential standpoint (but good from a financial one).
Travel expenses were limited to $110 in gas and a $10 housekeeping tip, thanks to mooching off Hal. I'm still not deducting travel expenses from the bankroll. I don't think that trips to Vegas are yet a +EV consideration if mooching is not avaialble.
I need to work on a way to make an immediate dumb impression on casino personnel. Which is a pain, because an "act" just seems so... theatrical.
I shouldn't go coupon-running and table-hopping with a slot player that likes to camp out at one machine and feed it money.
Weekend nights are pretty worthless as far as playing conditions go. I guess that's the time to spend on other things, like eating, sleeping, or having fun.
I must avoid driving on S Las Vegas Blvd at all times of every day.
Vegas Diary, day before (V minus 1)
Arranged to take friday off work. Dropped my car off at the shop for maintenance, picked up a loaner car. Left town about 7:30pm. The loaner car was an Audi A3, neat little car, and it can go fast, got it up to 100mph when I wasn't paying attention for a bit. Not a lot to do when driving in the Mojave, had to stop for a 30 minute nap when I got tired.
Arrive at Green Valley Ranch at about 1:00AM (my stepdad was in Vegas for a conference, offered to share the room). Even though I'm beat, I make a quick stop at the tables. Sit down at a $5 6D game. Nothing special, rules-wise, and I'm really tired. Play one shoe, heads-up, the count goes nuclear, and I end up winning over $300.
And the room? There was a clerical error or something, and the room was a suite that's twice as big as my apartment. 4 flat screen TV's, full dining table, etc. Nice. (noise from the nightclub's patio was a minor factor at night, though).
Friday (V Day)
Get up semi early (8-9am), and wander downstairs. Find a sparsely populated double deck game (GVR's DD game is pretty competent). Play for like 20 minutes, win a little over $100. Now it's time for corn flakes.
Go to the bank and withdraw my "real" gambling bankroll. I'm fearing a huge losing streak this trip, so I pull cash so I have $3k in my pocket. I feel like a drug dealer. Then I go to the offices of the Las Vegas Advisor (near the Rio), and pick up my Pocketbook of Values. Go on a mini-coupon run in the area.
I was surprised that The Palms had reasonable 8D games to offer. I thought they marketed to hipster doofuses. Did some backcounting, and played through a shoe or two. Won about $60. Also, hot cocktail waitresses.
Went by Palace Station to cash a coupon. Seemed to have good games on paper, but the DD games were too expensive, and the 6D games were very full. Walked up to the last table with the last spot available, stood there (not even a free chair!) and placed my bet with my match play. Ended up drawing to a five-card 21. Dealer flips over a 20, everyone loses but me. I pick up the chips, wish the table luck, and walk off, and a couple ploppies got pissed. The most pissed I've gotten a ploppy at me. I mean... Atlantic City pissed. Glad I wasn't trying to stay and play.
Moved over to the Stratosphere to check out their funbook. Nice funbook. Played some of their DD game at a $10 table (also competent). Two other guys at the table, and oh look! One of them's counting cards! But I was there first! We must be using different counts, but he's definitely doing a straight counting game. Then the old civilian guy leaves, so it's just us two. Even worse, me and this guy are - in terms of style and personality - basically the same person, except he was a little older. He was probably at the table for about 30 minutes, just being generally amused by the situation, but then decided it was ridiculous and left. Counter-boy also decided to color up at the same time. Sheesh, what a bunch of amateurs we are. Left with $10 more than I came in with.
After a break for lunch and stuff, I dragged my stepdad Downtown.
Made a beeline to El Cortez. I had hyped this up in my mind, and was kind of looking forward to the prospect of being thrown out. However, I didn't want to get thrown out instantly, so I sat at their doubledeck table (2 or 3 other players there). I was betting $10, maxing out at around $75 in very high counts, never spreading to two hands. The dealer was pretty new, and made lots of little playing or payout mistakes, so everyone had to keep on their toes. Also, EC had a side bet that paid 2.5 to 1 on a certain combo, so the game moved glacially slow.
Oh, and did I mention the penetration? Dear god it was wonderful, dealt down to half a deck every single time, and the cards were even dealt out from a shoe, face up. Was it christmas already?
As for heat, well, I was kind of disappointed. There wasn't any. Once my bets crossed about $50, the dealer called "checks play". Fortunately, the count stayed high (or at least high enough), where I could just keep that bet out there at a constant amount, and the dealer called out "checks play" time after time. Finally, the count just couldn't support that bet any more, so I bet one green with a couple reds, and the dealer still called "checks play". Sweet. By this point, the effect on the pit seemed to be be the same as crying wolf. After an hour ended up winning nearly $500. Plus, Hal even won a tiny bit on the slots.
By now, it was Friday night, and Freemont street was packed. Had a hard time finding any open table, let alone a good one. Plus, every time we stopped somewhere, Hal got glued to a slot machine. I went into Golden Gate to play a coupon, and ended up in a heads-up 6D shoe game. It was a bad shoe game (no surrender, not even DAS, I think). Penetration was also poor (probably 2 decks cut off) but I needed to kill time, so there I was. After a bit a trio of youngish guys came in and were playing $100 or so a hand. Anyway, I ended up in a count with two large bets out ($70 ish, all red). Then I started getting 8's, and double downs, and my 2x bets turned into 5x or 6x bets. I was ten bucks short on one double down, so I let the guy next to me top it off rather than go in my wallet. Dealer busted, so that turned into a great hand, the dealer actually ran out of reds paying me off. As you might guess this was my best session of the trip, ending up $780. (Hal got mauled by their slots).
... as you may have noticed, I hadn't yet had a losing session. Needless to say, I was waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Went by Four Queens, heard that they had a single deck game. They did, but it was full. Sat down at a doubledeck game, and realized after a bit that it wasn't that great (fairly full table, and no DAS). Not only that, but I got a little unlucky, and booked a loss of $108. I was a little mad at myself for not noticing the little sign about nDAS before I sat down.
The scene downtown was too crowded and loud for either of our tastes, so we called it a night. It did seem like people were just having more fun downtown than on the strip.
Saturday (V plus 1)
Checked out GVR for breakfast. Played the doubledeck game for only like 20 minutes, won about $260. Crazy.
Wanted to hit up the south strip, so went to Monte Carlo (it looked affordable for my bankroll). What a weird mismash of tables. All shoe games, but some are $10 6D H17, some are $10 8D H17, and some are $25 8D S17. Strange. This was more like playing back home, so I did some backcounting and wonging. When I handed my players card to the floor supervisor, I was informed that $10 bets weren't enough to get rated, it required $25 bets, and my card was returned. After a while, when I bet 2x$50, the supervisor asked for my card again.
I was backcounting one of the 8D tables where one guy was playing. Not even halfway in the shoe, the count got pretty good, so I wonged in, betting around $25 or $50. I hadn't actually noticed that it was a $25 table until I tried to spread to two hands with insufficient bets (doh). However, the count very quickly went off the charts, and I was basically just betting 2x$75 for the next four decks out of the shoe. And what happened here was terrifying. I had sat down with about $150 in random chips. Gone. Bought in for $200. Gone. Another $200. Gone. Another $300, lost $200 very quickly. I had just seen $700 evaporate in front of me in 5 minutes. Here was that taste of that negative variance I was waiting for with my newly upgraded bet spread. The good news? While it was scary, I was pretty much on autopilot, and it didn't affect my play.
Also, we were still playing the same shoe. So after getting clobberated, I went on a fearsome winning streak, which basically repaired all the damage. I had to take a break and catch my break. Played a little more. Finally I did the math, and I figured left with $80 more than when I started.
(Postscript: next day, while packing, I found a $100 Monte Carlo chip. So I guess I did better than I thought).
Went to Caesar's. That was a big "WTF?!" moment for me, and I think I learned a valuable lesson about looking at a two-month-old edition of CBJN. On paper, it seemed like I'd find a good game. In actuality, what I encountered was a war crime of blackjack. Shoe games, double 9, 10, 11, only, no DAS, and of course, no surrender. Also, the games were all $15 or $25, which is just too much for me. It was only in the high-ish roller $50 and $100 games where you got DOA and DAS back. The whole situation just enraged me. More than CSMs enrage me!
Went on a really unpleasant driving, parking, and walking experience to get from Monte Carlo to the Wynn, where we were going to see a show. I'm never going to park at the IP ever again, even if it's the last parking garage on earth. It's a total rat's nest. The show was Monty Python's Spamalot and it was highly enjoyable.
Walked across the street to New Frontier, and started out at a heads up 6D game (another couple players were in and out). Dealer seemed pretty sharp, knew his basic strategy. Worse, when my bets rose near the end of the shoe, he moved the cut card on the next shoe from about 1.5 decks to 2+ decks. Count still got good, and bets still rose, and next shoe, the cutoff point was nearly 50%. Holy crap, I was getting douched. That's when I stopped tipping. Amusingly, I still got in a few big bets on that last shoe, and decided it was time (under 1 hour total) to get out of dodge. Won $47.50.
It was St. Patty's day, so the whole "loud/crowded" effect began to dominate, so it was time to call it a night again.
Sunday (V plus two)
Dropped by the GVR table games section again, sat down at a $10 double deck game next to an asian lady who was betting $100+ a hand. After about 2 hands, I realize that I'm at a Super Fun 21 table. Jesus, I'm too stupid to live again. But the count had gotten really high, so I tried some big bets (what the hell, right?), and lost them. Then I moved to a proper blackjack table. One other lady was there, she busted out after a while, then the asian lady moved over, too. She seemed to be a regular. Then I had a hand where I doubled A,7 vs a 2, and she expressed her alarm. We both one the hand, but she got up and left. She wasn't a jerk or anything, but I was pretty sure I spooked her. The dealer agreed. Total length of the session was almost 1.5 hours. Was steaming a bit from the losses at the SF21 table. Walked away with $30 more than when I started.
Then, I finally made it to Slots-a-Fun, which I heard had a good low-roller game. Found an empty $5 doubledeck game (D8, but S17 and DAS allowed). One other lady sat down and we played at the same time. Count got high, placed some big bets, and lost them. Dealer commented on my hitting of 16s, pointed out the single deck 6:5 game next door, and noted the nonchalance with which I went into my wallet for more funds (and at this point, I had all my cash in there, and I think he had an angle on it, so I looked like a drug dealer again). He beat me with yet another big bet out, but the count was extra-juicy. Right as I'm about to put out a whopper of a bet he says "here, let me shuffle these up for you, start fresh". Inside my mind screamed "Nooo!", but my outside just shrugged and made a dopey expression.
Anyway, it was time for a new dealer, she seemed nice enough. Had a bunch of low-count runs, or cases where the count didn't get high until too late before the shuffle, but I was already concerned. Then the count spikes on one hand just as three people sit at the table. Dealer looks, sees 3 new people, and me with two bets out now, and decides to shuffle again. I think "maybe it's because there's too many players". But now I was just playing to see confirm what was going on. I played my small bets, and 3 or 4 times, when I would just get ready to place a big bet, she would shuffle up. (not after they were placed, but before)
Holy ****, I was being preferentially shuffled!. I hadn't ever seen this before, but I guess the dealer (maybe even both dealers), could count, and were shuffling up every time it got high, while still being all smiles and wishing the players luck. I got pretty pissed off, mainly at the seeming duplicity of the act. Not only that, but it was hurting the low-rolling college kids at the table just as bad as it was hurting me. It seemed like a real waste of card-counting-dealer talent to use on a game with a $5 minimum.
After thinking about it some more, I can see why a casino might use this policy. Even a smoothly-delivered backoff could create a customer service issue if the player turned out not to be counting. While with this method, ploppies don't really know what's happening, and the card counter leaves. However, the two-faced nature of it really pissed me off.
I finally bailed, and had $350 less than when I started. Then I drove home, and got to experience Sunday traffic on I-15. Yuck. Probably added 40 minutes to the drive compared to Thursday night.
Conclusions and Navel-Gazing.
I ended up inflating my bankroll by almost $1600 (I stole $20 out of it to pay for the show ticket). Considering my EV for the weekend was probably $100-$200, this was a damn good result. Not only did I far exceed EV, but I also did it with much less turbulence than I had expected. Basically, the trip was a little bit charmed. It also means I haven't yet experienced a truly nasty swing with increased bets, which is bad from an experiential standpoint (but good from a financial one).
Travel expenses were limited to $110 in gas and a $10 housekeeping tip, thanks to mooching off Hal. I'm still not deducting travel expenses from the bankroll. I don't think that trips to Vegas are yet a +EV consideration if mooching is not avaialble.
I need to work on a way to make an immediate dumb impression on casino personnel. Which is a pain, because an "act" just seems so... theatrical.
I shouldn't go coupon-running and table-hopping with a slot player that likes to camp out at one machine and feed it money.
Weekend nights are pretty worthless as far as playing conditions go. I guess that's the time to spend on other things, like eating, sleeping, or having fun.
I must avoid driving on S Las Vegas Blvd at all times of every day.
HAHAHA! Yes, you piss people off in Atlantic City and you will hear some filthy language. Las Vegas is very friendly in comparison.
Wow what a great trip and a great report. I'm surprised to hear conditions have deteriorated like that at Caesar's. They've always been a reliable place for green chip action. The Monte Carlo has a low-limit game with good Strip rules available, good choice. As was the El Cortez DD, glad you had better variance than the last time I played it. Smart play with the coupons too. And you've seen what it's like to get heat. Don't let it intimidate you, just take it for what it is and move on.
One Downtown place you missed that counters earn their stripes in is the Western. Think of it as like a homeless shelter with gaming, and being "dealt a BJ" had a totally different meaning in the men's room. They used to have the best SD in town, but no more.
Wow what a great trip and a great report. I'm surprised to hear conditions have deteriorated like that at Caesar's. They've always been a reliable place for green chip action. The Monte Carlo has a low-limit game with good Strip rules available, good choice. As was the El Cortez DD, glad you had better variance than the last time I played it. Smart play with the coupons too. And you've seen what it's like to get heat. Don't let it intimidate you, just take it for what it is and move on.
One Downtown place you missed that counters earn their stripes in is the Western. Think of it as like a homeless shelter with gaming, and being "dealt a BJ" had a totally different meaning in the men's room. They used to have the best SD in town, but no more.
NICE! When I ask for a loaner they give me a KIA. It only gets up to 70MPH if it’s falling off a cliff.
Yeah, they’ve had deep penetration for a long time now. I’m sure they’re really cleaning up from all the ploppies I see there. Even though they use a notch in the discard tray for penetration I’ve seen some dealers angle the card up and cut 60-65% off. Even then, the rules make it a great opportunity.
The Royal Match bet does slow the game down, but they have a few addicts who regularly play it. I’m glad that they can offer such a great game and still rake in the money.
What an ass, but at least he was trying to get you rated.
Yeah, once those 8-deckers get hot they can last for a while. There’s nothing like jumping in and surfing on top of the wave for the rest of the shoe.
That’s great! It’s very important to stick to the game plan even when things seem like they’re falling apart. Being able to play aggressively and consistently is crucial to success. It looks like you’ve got those lessons under your belt.
Most of the time I don’t even know where I stand during a session because I don’t keep track of the chips. I usually have some on the table in front of me, a few in my palm, and a few more rat-holed in my pocket. I just keep playing until my time is up or the heat comes. As long as I’m playing a winning game I’m not worried about the money because I know it will come. There’ll be plenty of time to get emotional about the money after the session. I've certainly suffered through my share of depression, but I do it away from the tables.
Don’t feel bad. According to the current CBJN they still have 19 tables of $5 H17 DAS LS and 13 tables of $25 S17 DAS LS RSA. I guess it still hasn’t been updated.
I feel you on that. And if the parking lot isn’t bad enough, then you have to get out of the parking lot! It takes a good 15 minutes just to plow through the pedestrians only to get stuck making an unprotected right turn onto the strip. You just can’t win.
Good move! When in doubt, a dopey expression is always the correct response.
It’s always easier to have a losing streak after a big winning streak. :grin: At least you’ll be ready for it then it comes.
Wait until you start getting the mailers from those casinos. There's plenty of mooching to be done - by using comps! And if they don't offer you free rooms you can always save money by asking for the "casino rate" when you make a reservation.
Try this: Sit down at a table and before you put down your money say “This is blackjack, right?” Even the ploppies will roll their eyes! Then say “Good, my friend told me to play blackjack.” You won't have to say a damn thing after that.
It can be tough when you’re playing with other people. Regular players don’t want to spend all night walking around a casino looking for positive tables or walking away from negative ones. They want to sit down and play. Sometimes you just have to leave them in the dust and agree to meet up later.
That’s for sure. On the weekends I usually go to bed around 9pm and wake up at 6am. That gives you most of the day with good conditions. You’ll also find that the drinks come a lot faster at 9am than they do at 9pm.
-Sonny-
Yeah, they’ve had deep penetration for a long time now. I’m sure they’re really cleaning up from all the ploppies I see there. Even though they use a notch in the discard tray for penetration I’ve seen some dealers angle the card up and cut 60-65% off. Even then, the rules make it a great opportunity.
The Royal Match bet does slow the game down, but they have a few addicts who regularly play it. I’m glad that they can offer such a great game and still rake in the money.
EasyRhino said:
When I handed my players card to the floor supervisor, I was informed that $10 bets weren't enough to get rated, it required $25 bets, and my card was returned. After a while, when I bet 2x$50, the supervisor asked for my card again.
Yeah, once those 8-deckers get hot they can last for a while. There’s nothing like jumping in and surfing on top of the wave for the rest of the shoe.
That’s great! It’s very important to stick to the game plan even when things seem like they’re falling apart. Being able to play aggressively and consistently is crucial to success. It looks like you’ve got those lessons under your belt.
Most of the time I don’t even know where I stand during a session because I don’t keep track of the chips. I usually have some on the table in front of me, a few in my palm, and a few more rat-holed in my pocket. I just keep playing until my time is up or the heat comes. As long as I’m playing a winning game I’m not worried about the money because I know it will come. There’ll be plenty of time to get emotional about the money after the session. I've certainly suffered through my share of depression, but I do it away from the tables.
Don’t feel bad. According to the current CBJN they still have 19 tables of $5 H17 DAS LS and 13 tables of $25 S17 DAS LS RSA. I guess it still hasn’t been updated.
I feel you on that. And if the parking lot isn’t bad enough, then you have to get out of the parking lot! It takes a good 15 minutes just to plow through the pedestrians only to get stuck making an unprotected right turn onto the strip. You just can’t win.
Good move! When in doubt, a dopey expression is always the correct response.
It’s always easier to have a losing streak after a big winning streak. :grin: At least you’ll be ready for it then it comes.
Wait until you start getting the mailers from those casinos. There's plenty of mooching to be done - by using comps! And if they don't offer you free rooms you can always save money by asking for the "casino rate" when you make a reservation.
Try this: Sit down at a table and before you put down your money say “This is blackjack, right?” Even the ploppies will roll their eyes! Then say “Good, my friend told me to play blackjack.” You won't have to say a damn thing after that.
It can be tough when you’re playing with other people. Regular players don’t want to spend all night walking around a casino looking for positive tables or walking away from negative ones. They want to sit down and play. Sometimes you just have to leave them in the dust and agree to meet up later.
That’s for sure. On the weekends I usually go to bed around 9pm and wake up at 6am. That gives you most of the day with good conditions. You’ll also find that the drinks come a lot faster at 9am than they do at 9pm.
-Sonny-
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I don't track chips either (have enough trouble sizing my bets), but I do try to keep track of how much cash I pull out, so I can piece it all back together when at the cage. Even that's tricky sometimes. After rubberbanding my bankroll at Monte Carlo, the math was made easier because I knew exactly how much cash was in my wallet when I first walked in the door.
On Sunday, I ordered at Vodka/Red Bull at 9AM after getting a decent night's sleep, and started FREAKING OUT. Like in a Beavis and Butthead "I AM CORNHOLIO!" kind of way.
Forgot to mention two things about Slotsafun. When I was just playing heads up with the dealer, he made a little joke that every time he was showing an 8, I would win my hand. So, in an ultimately futile attempt at cover, I had some fun with it. I split 3's vs his 8 on one hand (actually won both, extending the joke), and doubled down with a hard 14 (only for a buck). It was fun.
Also, on the drive back, I remembered the trick of pushing out a big bet in negative counts to spark a reshuffle. I should have given that a try. However, since the dealer appeared to be counting, he probably would have either let me place those big bets, or reshuffled BOTH at the big bets, AND at the high counts, thus resulting in a near-continuous stream of shuffles. Which would been amusing in a sardonic nihilistic way. Probably would have pissed the hell out of the ploppies.
On Sunday, I ordered at Vodka/Red Bull at 9AM after getting a decent night's sleep, and started FREAKING OUT. Like in a Beavis and Butthead "I AM CORNHOLIO!" kind of way.
Forgot to mention two things about Slotsafun. When I was just playing heads up with the dealer, he made a little joke that every time he was showing an 8, I would win my hand. So, in an ultimately futile attempt at cover, I had some fun with it. I split 3's vs his 8 on one hand (actually won both, extending the joke), and doubled down with a hard 14 (only for a buck). It was fun.
Also, on the drive back, I remembered the trick of pushing out a big bet in negative counts to spark a reshuffle. I should have given that a try. However, since the dealer appeared to be counting, he probably would have either let me place those big bets, or reshuffled BOTH at the big bets, AND at the high counts, thus resulting in a near-continuous stream of shuffles. Which would been amusing in a sardonic nihilistic way. Probably would have pissed the hell out of the ploppies.
It's time to take a deep breath
Your vivid account of you recent exploits were very entertaining indeed! I'm sure they provided a rare glimpse into the actual blood and guts world of a counter making it to the next level. So congrats my man! Now it's time to step back, take a breath and reassess where you are, where you've come from and where your going from here. It seems to me that you've built yor bankroll to a point where you can mathematically sustain green chip bets, if of course I'm following the complex fluctuations correctly.
This point of time would be an excellent opportunity to calculate your new bankroll and reexamine all of your different bet spreads, cover plays and stategies thet now come into play on the green chip level. Take a harder look at comps, since they are exponentially more favorable at this level and in essence, you've earned them, so push a little harder and shop around if necessary. Don't forget, they want your action more now than they did before since you represent a better potential return in their eyes. Your comps should now make a real dent in your average trip expenses and therefore your net EV.
Finally, you need to fine tune your RoR calculations, either on a risk calculator or on the forum here. I'm sure you'll get very accurate and solid advice. At all costs you want to maintain your new-found status without slipping back into that "red chip" gutter. LOL
Your vivid account of you recent exploits were very entertaining indeed! I'm sure they provided a rare glimpse into the actual blood and guts world of a counter making it to the next level. So congrats my man! Now it's time to step back, take a breath and reassess where you are, where you've come from and where your going from here. It seems to me that you've built yor bankroll to a point where you can mathematically sustain green chip bets, if of course I'm following the complex fluctuations correctly.
This point of time would be an excellent opportunity to calculate your new bankroll and reexamine all of your different bet spreads, cover plays and stategies thet now come into play on the green chip level. Take a harder look at comps, since they are exponentially more favorable at this level and in essence, you've earned them, so push a little harder and shop around if necessary. Don't forget, they want your action more now than they did before since you represent a better potential return in their eyes. Your comps should now make a real dent in your average trip expenses and therefore your net EV.
Finally, you need to fine tune your RoR calculations, either on a risk calculator or on the forum here. I'm sure you'll get very accurate and solid advice. At all costs you want to maintain your new-found status without slipping back into that "red chip" gutter. LOL