Need an advise about progression

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justme

New Member
#21
#21
ohbehave said:
All of this is speculation.
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Of course. I'm not saying that I invented a working system or that it is possible to do so.
ohbehave said:
You have to win the $100 first before you can gamble with it.
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Yeah. That's why I asked what are the odds that you will win 100 playing 10 20 60 progression... If you win 4 out of 10 that's ok with me.
ohbehave said:
There is no math behind a progression that can prove it a longterm winner. I believe you know this but you are choosing to ignore it. Hey, I've been there. I started playing BJ with a progression and was convinced it worked. Luckily some good folks here steered my right and I quit the progression before I lost a ton of money. If a progression was a winning strategy you would not have to walk away after either winning or losing $100. Just keep playing forever.
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I see your point. What I want to test right now if a good money money management can give you some edge to overcome this problem.
ohbehave said:
The only reason AP's limit there playing time is due to exposure otherwise if we were allowed we would play night and day and only stop to make trips to the bank.
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Interesting...So you usually make good money flat-betting till you increase your bets at the right count? I thought card counters have the same bad sessions as basic strategy players. They just win more in the long run. Or just win :) Am I wrong?
 
A

apex

Well-Known Member
#22
#22
justme said:
My problem with card counting is that I don't want to get caught and I'm not very mobile at the moment so I want to stick to playing in the same casino . What I would like to do is to learn some basic technique that will give me small advantage to know when is the right time to go one step further in progression.
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Counting is a basic technique that gives you a small advantage. The right time to go a step further in your progression is when the count improves.

You are in a great spot. They think you play progressions, so you are a good customer in their book. Would be an excellent time to learn to count. Getting caught is not a big deal.

If you are going to continue to play a progression, I would just say stick to what you are doing. Thinking about it/ trying to improve your system does nothing. A complete waste of time. The progression you are playing now is just as good/bad (bad) as any other progression.
 
J

justme

New Member
#23
#23
21gunsalute said:
True. If you already have money you won from the casino and only gamble with this money and quit before you lose it all you'll come out a few bucks ahead...but what's the point? People play this game for fun, to make money or both. I don't see anything fun about playing 5 minute sessions having to quit before losing your meager winnings, and you certainly aren't going to make any real money this way. If your goal is to just walk away from the casino up $5-20 so you can brag to your friends how you "stuck it to the casino" then this method could work for you. You just have to worry about getting off to a good start. Good luck with that! :whip:
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I have been winning much more than 5-20 a day before I went to High Limit and even there it worked very well till I made some stupid decisions. I do understand that I was lucky though (cause i do agree with math :) )
 
J

justme

New Member
#24
#24
gamblingghost said:
See, the problem here is that you use the words 'advantage' and 'progression' in the same sentence. That is a problem see!? Because they don't go together. You don't have a mathmatical advantage with progressions. The only way to get the math on your side is to count. Simple concept, do you accept it?????
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Isn't it possible to do the both? Play progression and count? Or adjust your progression depending on a count?
 
J

justme

New Member
#25
#25
apex said:
Counting is a basic technique that gives you a small advantage. The right time to go a step further in your progression is when the count improves.

You are in a great spot. They think you play progressions, so you are a good customer in their book. Would be an excellent time to learn to count. Getting caught is not a big deal.

If you are going to continue to play a progression, I would just say stick to what you are doing. Thinking about it/ trying to improve your system does nothing. A complete waste of time. The progression you are playing now is just as good/bad (bad) as any other progression.
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Thank you! I will look into card counting in more details of course. Can you recommend me a simple counting system?
 
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gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#27
#27
justme said:
Isn't it possible to do the both? Play progression and count? Or adjust your progression depending on a count?
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Of course you can but what is your motive? Camo? If you are going up in
neg. counts you hurt your bottom line. It likely is not necessary for camo.
 
O

ohbehave

Well-Known Member
#29
#29
justme said:
Interesting...So you usually make good money flat-betting till you increase your bets at the right count? I thought card counters have the same bad sessions as basic strategy players. They just win more in the long run. Or just win :) Am I wrong?
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It was said tongue-in-cheek. Counters have plenty of bad sessions. The point was that if a card counter could sit at a table and play continuously he would not hesitate to do it. It would be one long session... the longrun is often referred to just that, 1 long session. Whereas, progression players always have some sort of stop-loss built in so they don't lose more than they are comfortable with. The problem is that a stop-loss won't stop the losses from accumulating. But, rather than 1 giant loss to overcome the wins it will be a large number of small losses to overcome the wins.
 
J

justme

New Member
#31
#31
gamblingghost said:
Of course you can but what is your motive? Camo? If you are going up in
neg. counts you hurt your bottom line. It likely is not necessary for camo.
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To some extent. To some extent I've been very lucky playing progressions so psychologically it is more suitable for me. And progressions are more adjustable, imho. You can choose how many steps to play.
 
J

justme

New Member
#32
#32
gamblingghost said:
Excellent! Add to that: get Pro BJ by SW and learn the appropriate chart.
Then, when you decide to play shoes, naturally progress to halves. Get Verite' and practice. Isn't this fun!!:)
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Thank you! I'll try that.
 
J

justme

New Member
#33
#33
ohbehave said:
It was said tongue-in-cheek. Counters have plenty of bad sessions. The point was that if a card counter could sit at a table and play continuously he would not hesitate to do it. It would be one long session... the longrun is often referred to just that, 1 long session. Whereas, progression players always have some sort of stop-loss built in so they don't lose more than they are comfortable with. The problem is that a stop-loss won't stop the losses from accumulating. But, rather than 1 giant loss to overcome the wins it will be a large number of small losses to overcome the wins.
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I see your point. Just wanted to make sure that card counting isn't that easy :)
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#34
#34
You should check out Blackjack School. The link is on the left margin.

Card counting is a progression of sorts. You bet more money when the shoe is rich in high cards and less (or nothing at all) when the high cards become more scarce. So it's a "progression" based on information that should be of help, not a progression based purely on the whim of the progressions creator, based on nothing but pure luck.
 
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justme

New Member
#35
#35
21gunsalute said:
You should check out Blackjack School. The link is on the left margin.

Card counting is a progression of sorts. You bet more money when the shoe is rich in high cards and less (or nothing at all) when the high cards become more scarce. So it's a "progression" based on information that should be of help, not a progression based purely on the whim of the progressions creator, based on nothing but pure luck.
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Thank you! I will definitely go through Blackjack School.
 
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gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#36
#36
justme, in only 18 posts it appears you have accepted the logic that has
been suggested! I am amazed and impressed!! I predict good things for you.;) Many that come on here touting their 'progression' never get it. As a matter of fact, in the last 6 months I think you are the only one!!
 
J

justme

New Member
#37
#37
gamblingghost said:
justme, in only 18 posts it appears you have accepted the logic that has
been suggested! I am amazed and impressed!! I predict good things for you.;) Many that come on here touting their 'progression' never get it. As a matter of fact, in the last 6 months I think you are the only one!!
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Thank you! I hope you're right:)
 
S

SteveG

New Member
#38
#38
Hi JustMe, I friended you so maybe we could continue a convo on this between us also, some interesting things I was thinking but just joined so was late to this party. Would be good to chat with you... Steve
 
J

justme

New Member
#39
#39
SteveG said:
Hi JustMe, I friended you so maybe we could continue a convo on this between us also, some interesting things I was thinking but just joined so was late to this party. Would be good to chat with you... Steve
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Sure. Anytime.
 
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