Need an advise about progression
- Thread starter justme
- Start date
In a back issue of Gambling Times, an article called "The Morgan Progression" by Dan(?) Morgan proposed a method based on positive progression and card counting.
I haven't read the article in years, but what he stated was to the pit it looks fishy to win many hands in a row without raising your bets, which counters do in negative/neutral counts. Ploppies raise their bets when in winning streaks.
His method was slow progression in neg/neutral counts something like 1-1-1.5-2-2-3-3-5 etc. At first loss revert to 1 unit. But in positive counts 1-3-5-8-12, etc. Revert to 1 unit at first loss.
Say if you win 4 in a row on neg counts, then the count jumps, you would then use the more aggressive progression. And if the count drops to neutral after a win at say 5 units then flat bet until a loss or another winning streak, then either progress conservative or agressive depending on the count.
I'm sure I've mis-remembered his progression since it's been years since I've read the article.
I know he did not write, but I would add, is if the count is very high (TC +5?) then double (or more), and if betting a larger unit at a high count and lose, only drop 50%--say from 12 to 6.
And since we're counting we can adjust our playing decisions based on the count, unlike the pure progressionist.
I know the best method is moving the bet with the true count, but so do the geniuses:laugh: in the pit and security.
But at least the Morgan progression is better than astrology and it at least requires counting.
I haven't read the article in years, but what he stated was to the pit it looks fishy to win many hands in a row without raising your bets, which counters do in negative/neutral counts. Ploppies raise their bets when in winning streaks.
His method was slow progression in neg/neutral counts something like 1-1-1.5-2-2-3-3-5 etc. At first loss revert to 1 unit. But in positive counts 1-3-5-8-12, etc. Revert to 1 unit at first loss.
Say if you win 4 in a row on neg counts, then the count jumps, you would then use the more aggressive progression. And if the count drops to neutral after a win at say 5 units then flat bet until a loss or another winning streak, then either progress conservative or agressive depending on the count.
I'm sure I've mis-remembered his progression since it's been years since I've read the article.
I know he did not write, but I would add, is if the count is very high (TC +5?) then double (or more), and if betting a larger unit at a high count and lose, only drop 50%--say from 12 to 6.
And since we're counting we can adjust our playing decisions based on the count, unlike the pure progressionist.
I know the best method is moving the bet with the true count, but so do the geniuses:laugh: in the pit and security.
But at least the Morgan progression is better than astrology and it at least requires counting.
progression betting does not work long term. I've done it many times and luckily I've won more money than I lost but in doing so I realized it was not a good long term strategy because I've lost 12 or more hands in a row too frequently and they wipe me out every time when that happens.
Card counting at makes more sense and is backed by mathematics. There's just more longevity in it. It would be interesting to see if I ever encounter a 12 or more hand losing streak when the count is positive the whole time. I doubt that could happen even in a 6 deck shoe. But who knows.
Card counting at makes more sense and is backed by mathematics. There's just more longevity in it. It would be interesting to see if I ever encounter a 12 or more hand losing streak when the count is positive the whole time. I doubt that could happen even in a 6 deck shoe. But who knows.
I can assure you that it is not only possible, to lose double digit hands in a row, when the count is positive, but it happens fairly frequently. 
:sad:
Problem is that unlike a progression player who knows exactly how many hands he has lost in a row, a counter doesn't even think about such until he is into the streak. (Gee. I have lost 6 or 7 hands in a row now.) So he may not know exactly how many and it isn't worth the effort to replay things in your mind. No real benefit. When I find myself getting hammered and realizing that I have lost x number of hands in a row, my first reaction is to double my vigilance of the dealer, in an attempt to be sure I am not being cheated.
:sad:Problem is that unlike a progression player who knows exactly how many hands he has lost in a row, a counter doesn't even think about such until he is into the streak. (Gee. I have lost 6 or 7 hands in a row now.
) So he may not know exactly how many and it isn't worth the effort to replay things in your mind. No real benefit. When I find myself getting hammered and realizing that I have lost x number of hands in a row, my first reaction is to double my vigilance of the dealer, in an attempt to be sure I am not being cheated. 
kewljason said:
I can assure you that it is not only possible, to lose double digit hands in a row, when the count is positive, but it happens fairly frequently. :sad:
Problem is that unlike a progression player who knows exactly how many hands he has lost in a row, a counter doesn't even think about such until he is into the streak. (Gee. I have lost 6 or 7 hands in a row now.) So he may not know exactly how many and it isn't worth the effort to replay things in your mind. No real benefit. When I find myself getting hammered and realizing that I have lost x number of hands in a row, my first reaction is to double my vigilance of the dealer, in an attempt to be sure I am not being cheated.
:sad:Problem is that unlike a progression player who knows exactly how many hands he has lost in a row, a counter doesn't even think about such until he is into the streak. (Gee. I have lost 6 or 7 hands in a row now.
) So he may not know exactly how many and it isn't worth the effort to replay things in your mind. No real benefit. When I find myself getting hammered and realizing that I have lost x number of hands in a row, my first reaction is to double my vigilance of the dealer, in an attempt to be sure I am not being cheated.
To the JUSTME the original poster
Blackjack is a game where the house edge varies with deck composition from hand to hand depending on the composition of the cards yet to be played. Advantage is earned by betting more when the remaining cards favor the player.
When you are at a disadvantage deck composition the losing streaks are longer and more frequent.
When you are at an advantageous deck composition you will win more than you lose but the dealer has just as good a chance at a pat hand as you do so that doesnt necessarily mean long streaks. The advantage you have is because you can play your bad hands different from the dealer has to play his.
Think about that. You are varying your bets randomly regardless of the deck composition. Your bet variations should have you betting larger when you have an advantage and MINIMUM when you are at disadvantage. That is when your bet variation HELPS rather than HURTS your expected return.
Remember you are at a disadvantage right off the top of the deck so far less than half the time will you want to bet more than minimum. You cannt guess at what point you are at advantage and lose it.
The ace is a very important card for the player. The dealer has to play his ace one way only in any situation, the player always has a choice. The biggest way an ace helps the player is the way a blackjack is paid; 3to2 for the player, but only an automatic win for the dealer, and a push if you and the dealer have blackjack.
Cards 10 thru k are important for player not only because the ten value cards are the other half of a blackjack. These cards are crucial to making the bad hands that you play differently from the dealer into hands the dealer loses more often when he gets one and you win more often when you get one.
You should try to conservatively increase your bets when the remaining cards have more ten value cards than it should; not randomly, but in correlation with how ten rich it is. When this occurs WHILE there are a lot more aces in the remaining cards than there should be, that is when you bet your biggest bets.
Thats all you need to do. Now all you have to do is to decide how accurate you want your estimates of the remaining cards to be. Changing your bet based on whether you won or lost your last bet is not a good strategy in blackjack. There are better things to base that decision on.
Blackjack is a game where the house edge varies with deck composition from hand to hand depending on the composition of the cards yet to be played. Advantage is earned by betting more when the remaining cards favor the player.
When you are at a disadvantage deck composition the losing streaks are longer and more frequent.
When you are at an advantageous deck composition you will win more than you lose but the dealer has just as good a chance at a pat hand as you do so that doesnt necessarily mean long streaks. The advantage you have is because you can play your bad hands different from the dealer has to play his.
Think about that. You are varying your bets randomly regardless of the deck composition. Your bet variations should have you betting larger when you have an advantage and MINIMUM when you are at disadvantage. That is when your bet variation HELPS rather than HURTS your expected return.
Remember you are at a disadvantage right off the top of the deck so far less than half the time will you want to bet more than minimum. You cannt guess at what point you are at advantage and lose it.
The ace is a very important card for the player. The dealer has to play his ace one way only in any situation, the player always has a choice. The biggest way an ace helps the player is the way a blackjack is paid; 3to2 for the player, but only an automatic win for the dealer, and a push if you and the dealer have blackjack.
Cards 10 thru k are important for player not only because the ten value cards are the other half of a blackjack. These cards are crucial to making the bad hands that you play differently from the dealer into hands the dealer loses more often when he gets one and you win more often when you get one.
You should try to conservatively increase your bets when the remaining cards have more ten value cards than it should; not randomly, but in correlation with how ten rich it is. When this occurs WHILE there are a lot more aces in the remaining cards than there should be, that is when you bet your biggest bets.
Thats all you need to do. Now all you have to do is to decide how accurate you want your estimates of the remaining cards to be. Changing your bet based on whether you won or lost your last bet is not a good strategy in blackjack. There are better things to base that decision on.
Does it make sense to stick with a flat unit bet after a loss, say 1, and then increase after a win in steps like 1-2-3-4-5, for example? Assuming that you are around 50/50 with good play (I know slightly less), would there then be the benefit of eliminating an extra costly losing streak, (like increasing after losing bets might produce), and at least when a positive run happens, you would catch it?
Like with any positive progression system, you will have more losing sessions but a few bigger winning sessions. There is no benefit in terms of expected value or variance. In fact both will probably be worse. It is a matter of opinion whether the distribution of wins/losses is more fun or less fun. If you crave bigger winning sessions then use it. If you would rather have more frequent, but smaller, wins then use something else. In the end it doesn't really matter.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
counting may not be so bad
i have posted a few times here.progressive bettor,going up a little after each win,back to min. bet after loss,etc. playing up with the indians for my sons birthday.did good,up about 700.after i got up ,met my son,watched him play.dealer was new and slow.as i watched my son,tried to count.(practiced counting before)count way skyhigh and aces were real low.told my son to bet big ,i would cover his loss.he puts out 50 bucks .boom ! blackjack!he won big the next couple hands and then i told him to back off as the count went down .worked out good.nice trip.free room and comped food and good size blackjack wins nice birthday present for him and good time for me.
i have posted a few times here.progressive bettor,going up a little after each win,back to min. bet after loss,etc. playing up with the indians for my sons birthday.did good,up about 700.after i got up ,met my son,watched him play.dealer was new and slow.as i watched my son,tried to count.(practiced counting before)count way skyhigh and aces were real low.told my son to bet big ,i would cover his loss.he puts out 50 bucks .boom ! blackjack!he won big the next couple hands and then i told him to back off as the count went down .worked out good.nice trip.free room and comped food and good size blackjack wins nice birthday present for him and good time for me.