Next Weekend in Vegas.

RJT · Feb 28, 2007

supercoolmancool said:

You make these sort of errors on any regular basis, and no you are not playing a winning game. If you reverse the sign on any large count you are going to be placing big bets into a disadvantage. This is the single biggest advantage killer going and the main reason so many people fail at shuffle tracking.

RJT.

supercoolmancool · Feb 28, 2007

RJT said:

Actually, and this may be surpressed information, they are still playing a winning game, but only lose because their bankroll is not sufficient, not their advantage. Some people say that placing huge bets in negative EV situations will destroy you...well...I'm here to tell you otherwise.

RJT · Feb 28, 2007

Which amounts to the same thing as playing with a disadvantage. Play with a disadvantage = lose all your money. Play with an advantage but a bankroll incapible of withstanding the varience = lose all your money.
Maybe i'm missing something, but i doubt that many people are going to be comforted by the fact that they had an advantage but not a big enough bankroll once they've been wiped out.
No litrature - nor player for that - fact takes any large amount of these sort of errors into account when discussing bankroll and unit sizing. So very few players have a bankroll that can withstand this sort of play, and the few that do actually are proficient enough that they are not making mistakes like this.

RJT.

ChefJJ · Feb 28, 2007

supercoolmancool said:

If you are off on the count by any considerable margin, what makes you think you are playing a winning game? That's why you practice. If you are incorrect about the count, index plays and betting strategies are off, so it could pretty much put you in a position to make "ploppy plays".

mdlbj · Feb 28, 2007

supercoolmancool said:

Im not sure I understand te post Supercoolman, what am I missing?

supercoolmancool · Feb 28, 2007

If you are off the count by one or two sometimes that's no big deal. You will place your max bet at +3 or +5 and you will place two units at even at worst. I mean if you make a mistake counting you always know you made a mistake or feel uneasy and at those times you stop counting or make a conservative educated guess. The house edge is so small that it does not take very much to beat blackjack. If you flip the count around, that could be bad, but you would have to do like every single time to completely wipe out your advantage. I mean you'd catch on or figure it out. It would probably be at the end of a shoe with just a few hands left. No big deal. I mean if you'd have to be so bad I can't even imagine. I mean you would have to be literally be a mental retard to screw this up. Yah even getting the count fliped should be okay. If the count is +2 and you think it is -2, then no big deal at all. If the count is -2 and you think it tis +2, then still it is not that big of a deal. I mean even if you fliped -4 to +4 sometimes, just think of all the times you DON't flip them around. That has got to more than make up for the times you do.

ScottH · Feb 28, 2007

supercoolmancool said:

You're right, you can play atrociously bad and still be a winning player. The MIT blackjack team might just be trying to create a false sense of difficulty in the game. Of course all the blackjack "experts" here will disagree with me, but I, like supercool, believe you can play horribly and still be a winning player. The only thing is if you play badly, your EV will be lower and will require a much larger bankroll than a good player. So a bad player will set his ROR to a certain level, but it will higher than he thinks since he makes many mistakes.

And seriously, how often do people switch the count? Like supercool suggested, it wont happen often enough to destroy your advantage. I could not imagine any serious player reversing the count often enough to kill their advantage in the longrun.

I strive to play perfectly, but I still agree you can play pretty damn bad and still have the advantage. There is no doubt about it, well-known blackjack players agree.

supercoolmancool · Feb 28, 2007

ChefJJ said:

mdlbj said:

Secret of the pros mdlbj and ChefJJ, a secret of the pros.

P.S.Scotth, I think we've said too much. Now everyone knows they can beat this game. Oh well.:sad:
Maybe they still won't

zengrifter · Feb 28, 2007

ChefJJ said:

Occaissional infrequent errors, as long as they are not chronic, have no meaningful detrimental effect. zg

ScottH · Feb 28, 2007

supercoolmancool said:

Yeah, it's in our personal best interests to make people think beating the casinos is a myth, and that it requires way more pratice and training that most people will be turned off to the game. You know, like everyone does with shuffletracking, etc. Make it seem so impossible that noone will even think about taking it up.

Card counting?! Yeah right... I'm no rain man! :laugh:

RJT · Feb 28, 2007

I have to say i'm finding this thread fairly amusing. If half the people who said that they could count cards could do so with few enough mistakes to be a winning player, then we'd be a far bigger threat to the casinos bottom line than we are.
What everyone seems to be missing is that mistakes increase varience, and with increased varience you need to increase the size of your bankroll. I haven't heard anyone give a reliable figure as to how many mistakes they are actually making. Not one. And even if they did, i bet if their play was analysed by a pro, it would be higher than they though it was. This means that the vast majority of players are overbetting their bankroll. One or 2 mistakes is no problem, but most, even self-proclaimed winners, make more than that.
And Scott, while i can shuffle track, saying that it's easier than made out is frankly a load. Mistakes during counting are somewhat recoupable, there is no room for error with tracking, and if you think there is you're not playing nearly as strong a game as you think.

RJT.

zengrifter · Feb 28, 2007

ScottH said:

Yeah, it's in our personal best interests to make people think beating the casinos is a myth, and that it requires way more pratice and training that most people will be turned off to the game. You know, like everyone does with shuffletracking, etc. Make it seem so impossible that noone will even think about taking it up.

Card counting?! Yeah right... I'm no rain man! :laugh:

Start playing up and exagerating your losses at this forum! zg

mdlbj · Feb 28, 2007

Scott, Supercoolman,
Come down to Vegas this weekend, the Wynn has a great single deck game right now and the min is 200 so no real heat. Oh, it has about 70% pen as well. I would like to see you two in action. Im sure you will get a RFB comp with 100 min for 4 hrs of play so you would not even have to worry about booking the room, just the flight.

Cheers!

zengrifter · Feb 28, 2007

RJT said:

I don't see a theoretical problem with 3x that many mistakes per hour, as long as they are random and not chronic mistakes. zg

mdlbj · Feb 28, 2007

zengrifter said:

I think people posting here are getting playing mistakes and betting mistakes confused ZG.

RJT · Feb 28, 2007

We're pretty much going round in circles here, so i'm going to leave it after this one. Most players are making 3x that number of mistakes on there kitchen table, so they damn sure make a more than that in actual play.
If you can't achieve near perfect play in ideal conditions, you aren't that good.

RJT.

ScottH · Feb 28, 2007

mdlbj said:

Hey man, we are SAYING that it's ok to make some mistakes, we AREN't saying we DO make mistakes.

I can play the counting system I use with 100% accuarcy. No I'm not just thinking that, I use software to test that. I am not one for tolerating mistakes, I am a perfectionist. I don't mean to brag, but I'm pretty good at everything I do...

And no I am not booking a flight to prove my skills to you. That is of no benefit to me whatsoever. Unless you want to pay for my trip, I'd love to come down and meet you!

ScottH · Feb 28, 2007

zengrifter said:

I already have plenty of people doubting my skills without even trying. I wonder what I could get people to think about me if I purposely planted seeds of doubt into their minds!

mdlbj · Feb 28, 2007

ScottH said:

I dont disagree with you at all. I was just thinking that you may want to hit up the tables in Vegas because there are some really good games right now. Im glad you have perfected your game, thats awesome. I am a perfectionist as well. I thought I had it naild, but I was proven wrong. Hope you do well!!

ScottH · Feb 28, 2007

mdlbj said:

It's easy to become 100% proficient at card counting with the system I use, KO. That's why I like to recommend KO for straight counting, you don't have to be completely obsessed to be perfect, or close enough to perfect as you need to be.

However, I do see myself switching systems for my future plans involving other more advanced advantage plays. I'm sure you know what I'm talking about. Yes, I know it will be a hell of a job to get good enough to do it, but like I said I'm a perfectionist and I like a challenge. I hope these will be of benefit to me in my practice.

Thanks for the heads up on the good games, but my schedule does not allow me any time for travel. Vegas will have to wait for now...

I think I need to lay low on the forums in the future. My quick-to-post style has gotten several posters to sort of butt heads with me, which is counter-productive. Many of my recent posts have been taken the wrong way. What I say, and what I actually do are not always the same thing. My posting seems to stir up arguments, so I should think out what I say before posting!

Next Weekend in Vegas.

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