eandre said:
Too much thinking for me. In respect to risk of ruin, I just carry too much money with me every session to go broke. If you are good enough and bring enough ammo, you will win more battles than you lose. You will never win the war, but who cares? Most player fail because they are not willing to risk large sums of money, are under funded, under skilled, not detached enough when playing and way to concerned about heat, table pressures or the simple need to have to win.
I'm just not a fan of short term vs. long term. I tend to believe that blackjack is 1 continous game your entire playing life. Sims are limited by their
parameters/variables. Real world playing has too many opportunities to account for in a sim. I just wasn't able to win consistently enough until I moved beyond the technical rules that all the experts extoll upon us. Hey, what ever works. I firmly believe that counting alone will not provide enough of an edge enough of the time to end your blackjack life a winner.
Remember, we once thought the world to be flat.
there is a lot to think about to be sure. the risk of ruin thing i was talkin bout
was lifetime. terrible thought to me to lose that much. i can't myself really
commit that kind of money. so yeah i kind of take it a trip at a time and let the results sink in. i however try and size my trip roll so as to be adequate but just so. if i lose that i like to mope around about it for a while and then try again.
just try and keep the philosophy of 'nothing life changing' one way or the other.
not sure what you mean by not being a big fan of short term vs long term. i guess i just think of the short term as being wildly unpredictable except you should fall some where within the range of standard deviations while the long term holds forth the promise that your over all results will start getting closer and closer to your expected results.
the game though does keep going and going as long as you play doesn't it?
i pretty much just play the same type games over and over so one sim does pretty much fit my circumstances. thing is the crowding situation can be pretty variable, then the pits like to jerk you around by changing table min's. i'm stuck pretty much in a play all situation to where i only want to play the lowest table minimun possible. if some drastically better game was to appear on my horizon i'd be a lost puppy. but i'd sure put together a game plan for it and play accordingly.
but even as it is the games that i am accustomed to playing well i can sympathize with what your saying about winning consistently enough and moving on beyond the orthodox methods. like where i was trying to play orthodox for 222 trips i had an average loss $167.65 for 40 losing trips and an average win $67.50 for 182 winning trips. that was an average win of $25.15 for those 222 trips (average time per trip about 3 hours). i was feeling golden during that era. excepting for a series of loss's in the latter trips that had one huge loss of near one seventh of my entire bankroll. really that got my attention.
i mean when i reflect upon how a typical trip might go it's like you know you might at first say win a nice little amount of loot (way above your ev) and then play along some more and before you know it you've lost that and dipped into your trip roll. and it's up and down or maybe down and down lol or however it goes. but thing is i can't escape this sense that once i'm up a good amount how futile it seems to play on (counting my little heart out, which is no mean feat for me) only to so often end up with less than that first good amount won. i know the idea is to get in as many hands as you can and rack up that ev, but still i can't escape the mournful sensation of losing that real loot even if i do come out overall some modest amount ahead with ev to boot. i guess i'm pretty much a creature of the moment and i also have this loathsome fear that low as my ROR may be that i'll be the one that loses that whole bankroll. so as irrational as my concerns may be i still pondered over it all and came to the conclusion that from a personal
perspective the nature of how an orthodox counter beats this game isn't suited for my psyche. it's just not efficient enough when weighed against the time and work expended. that's not to mention the risk and to me enormous bankroll required. so still finding some enjoyment in the game i've resolved to bend the orthodox rules some and try and make the effort extended more commensorate with the reward recieved.
so but may i ask you? what is it that you do in practice when you say that you moved beyond the technical rules that all the experts extoll upon us?
Canceler said:
This is not something that should paralyze you, though. A simple review of the Big 3 (playing/betting/counting) should do it. In other words, have you been playing like a good little robot?
You know what happened to me recently in the Weekend Warriors project. Since I lost more than 75% of my winnings, and jackson described it as having walked off the edge of a cliff, I think it qualifies as precipitous. Do I think something is wrong? No, because I’ve been playing like a good little robot. What I’ve been getting is bad hands in good counts, the dealer making some unlikely hands, and double-downs that didn’t work. The usual stuff, in other words. These things are all due solely to the way the cards were arranged in the shoe.
I recognize that things have gone my way before, and I expect they will again.
i know it shouldn't paralyze me. lol. you know what paralyze's me worse? when i win a bunch of loot. i mean wow it's hard to play on knowing darn well it's likely that once i walk out of the casino i wont have that much loot in my pocket. and i guess i know it's not anymore unlikely that i'll walk away with less of that loot than it is of when i walked in the door with my trip roll to walk out with that trip roll in tact lol. i guess i'm just a big scaredy cat lol.
but your right about the Big 3. that's a great summary for a check list. gonna
adopt that lol.
and i know your right in your realization that things have gone your way before and that you can expect them to do so once again.
interesting about what you said getting the bad hands in good counts. dealer making unlikely hands, doubles gone bad like you said the usual stuff. lol. dreadful isn't it? and it's all because of how the cards were arranged in the shoe. lol. that's life. i think jj was saying he was down a couple K and had been steaming a bit lol.
i know the last few shoes or so i've been playing i was a bit tipsy from some father's day beers lol. think i was winging it a bit but think i was lucky too.