Streaks? Am I thinking like a ploppy?

p8ntballsk8r · Dec 30, 2009

I've noticed when playing that blackjack seems to be a pretty streaky game. For example, I went to the casino underbankrolled with only 16 units today, and I ended up turning it into 50 units.

My first shoe went positive and I made a good deal of money here, and the dealer was just getting KILLED. busting often and dealing out lots of naturals. The next shoe went negative right from the get-go so I was stuck flatbetting. It actually got bad enough where I told myself that the next hand I lost I would wong out.

Well here's the thing... I won about 15 straight hands and everyone else at the table was killing the dealer as well. The dealer asked me why I was betting the table minimum here still, all I could do was smile and say I didn't have a good feeling...

I've also seen this trend with dealers that are ON FIRE. they can't seem to bust and pull nasty 20's and 21's all night long. Even though I know the odds are on my side in a high count, I can't stand playing it because I'm getting crucified!

What are your thoughts on streaks, and my latest idea of looking at the dealers chip trays and trying to find one who is low on blacks or just chips in general? Is this just pure ploppy, sacred flow thinking or am I on to something?

PrinceDragon · Dec 30, 2009

What are your thoughts on streaks, and my latest idea of looking at the dealers chip trays and trying to find one who is low on blacks or just chips in general? Is this just pure ploppy, sacred flow thinking or am I on to something?

Yes, You are on drugs.

Move this to Voodoo please.

StandardDeviant · Dec 30, 2009

p8ntballsk8r said:

You have been hit in the head one two many times by paintballs or as a result of skating.

Your positive outcomes are not a result of streaks...they are a result of the moon being in the 7th house, and Jupiter aligning with Mars. Everyone knows that.

creeping panther · Dec 30, 2009

P8

p8ntballsk8r said:

P8,

Please read the thread, MOST IMPRESSIVE WINS" and try to understand what I am saying, it fits perfect into your recent experience.

Think outside the box, bet with the count as noted in referenced thread, except as noted in referenced thread, and use heavy indice plays. No longer will you need to sit there and look like a smuck and you will have great cover as well as some extra money.

No, forget about looking at the chip trays!!! LOL.

CP

bjcount · Dec 30, 2009

Streaks

Back in the day this gorgeous blond neighbor and I believed in the streak. We used to run through the neighbors rear yards bare ass and wild.
One day while in our streak mode a dog chased us through the trees into the middle of the street.

Standing in broad daylight, in the middle of a busy street, her rack bare and my unit exposed, an elderly lady walked up to us and said, " if only your unit was larger you'd see that bare rack much more often".

That streak didn't last very long.

BJC

Mr. T · Dec 30, 2009

Streaks? Am I thinking like a ploppy?

No you are not. You have arrived. You are a season BJ player now.

Damm the Maths. But sometimes there are sure as hell Streaks.

There are somethings that science amd maths cannot explain. Sometimes you just cannot play against a certain dealer. I would move to another table or even stop playing for a while. Sometimes like your dealer says why are you not upping your bets when he is dishing out money to everyone on the table.

I know Sonny will kick my behind on this and it looks like many others too. But Sonny and I did have some spirited arguements on this some months back.

You are right on the money and don't play any differently.

Lonesome Gambler · Dec 30, 2009

Mr. T said:

This is true, but fortunately statistical variance is quite easy to explain. Streaks do exist, of course, but as has been pointed out an endless number of times on this very forum, the problem is that you can never identify when a streak will begin or end. It's variance, plain and simple. You are thinking like a gambler, and the previous post is very irresponsible advice, seeing as how following it will likely end up with you losing your already undercapitalized bankroll. If you start looking at chip racks to try and detect streaks, you're well on your way to becoming a gambler just like everyoe else in the casino. Don't let that happen.

Billy C1 · Dec 30, 2009

Without question, streaks happen but I'm in the "straight numbers" camp. Many times I've minimum flat betted minus counts and been considered a dummy by the ploppies that were making bigger money hand after hand while I'm only winning minimum flat bets. Also, the reverse sometimes happens with good plus counts (making me look dumber yet for increasing my bets).
That fact hasn't changed my play and it won't.
Many feel the need for "cover plays" and that's fine if it makes the difference. As for myself------- very, very few cover plays are used because of their cost.
This is all dependent on the "stores" you play and what is required to keep the welcome mat out.

Billy C1

politcat · Dec 30, 2009

creeping panther said:

i've only been at this for less than a month, and then only in QFIT's sim, so it's tempting to try what you say in that thread after experiencing several times how one can win a bunch of negative count hands only to follow that with a bunch of losing positive count hands.

good(?) cover, but where's the math in it?!

I want something I can count on (pun intended)

Bojack1 · Dec 30, 2009

Alright heres my take on trying to catch streaks and bet more with them, don't do it. Unless you have gathered advanced information beforehand as to why there may be a streak, you are playing the game at a disadvantage and it doesn't matter how lucky you get on any one time playing a progression during a negative run. Even most negative indice plays are meant to lose less, not turn the advantage over to you. So if you are betting more while playing the negative indice play you are in essence negating the indice play anyway. I hear all of you who claim to be winning playing more during streaks, but I find thats just noise. First off playing negative hands annoys me and I try very hard not to do it. But if you feel you have to, deal with the fact that its not smart to play more when expected less. If you are getting lucky and winning a unit every time during the negative hands so be it. Getting overemotional about whats supposed to happen when it doesn't and vice versa is the downfall of many players that otherwise might be good players. I see streaks when I'm playing, and with advanced training you may even be able to predict to a certain degree the potential of a streak. But thats about as good as it gets, any other method of trying to catch fire in a bottle with overbetting negative situations is just emotions overpowering skill. I do not care what a dealer has to say nor what the other players at the table have to say, they have no effect on my task at hand. As most of you know they are all playing a losing game anyway so why even consider their advice. I on the other hand do not play a losing game, so I'm supremely confident in what I do at the table. As far as cover play, maybe occasionally it might be for some, but I refuse to bow to lessening my EV with plays that I know are not correct. Cover can come with intelligence in dealing with surroundings not throwing money away, even if you are under the assumption you are making more at the time.

Sonny · Dec 30, 2009

p8ntballsk8r said:

That is straight out of Jerry Patterson's rediculous TARGET system. He advises players to look for tables with empty chip trays and full ashtrays. Total nonsense, even for ploppies. An empty (or full) chip tray tells you nothing about the game.

-Sonny-

Billy C1 · Dec 30, 2009

Cover

Actually, playing ANY minus counts can be considered cover plays but sometimes play all (or close to all) is neccessary.
I think playing TC-1 isn't cover, TC-5 is cover and TC-6 or more I'm long gone (and usually gone before that).

Billy C1

kewljason · Dec 30, 2009

Here's what I know about streaks.

1.) The casinos were built for (and by) you guys that are looking for streaks.

2.) Every gambler is one good streak away from getting even.

The only post that made any sense to me in this thread was Bojack's. (as he usually does)

As for cover, in a game where you have a tiny long term advantage, you just can't afford to give much back, and thats what cover does. The best cover is playing short sessions!

IcedTea23 · Dec 30, 2009

I agree about not playing more in -TC. Just yesterday, I was playing 2 shoes, that back to back, the count plummeted. I'm talking around -5 - -7. Yet, I couldn't wong out from a table I was was winning every hand at. In fact, in a highly - count, I hit 8 BJ's in 1 1/2 shoes. 8!. That's more than I seen in the highest +TC count I have ever seen (+13 TC).

I was bugged left and right to raise my bet, but the thought never crossed my mind. The only thought crossing my mind at that point was, lose a hand so I can stand up and walk away.

On a side note question, I met a guy that was willing to bet my side bet, and split all winnings with me. He said he was never willing to not play it, as he hit the suited 7's before, and won't miss it again. Anyone see any negatives to this?

Lonesome Gambler · Dec 30, 2009

Billy C1 said:

TC-5 isn't cover, it's wasting time and money. Most pit staff have no idea what the count is and don't care. If you're raising your bets dramatically and/or win a lot, you're history, depending on a particular place's tolerance level. Even if they do a video review and check for BC, you're going to be betting the minimum in a TC-5 count, so you'll still be nailed. The point I'm trying to make is to not waste money and think of it as "cover."

Lonesome Gambler · Dec 30, 2009

IcedTea23 said:

The only negative is that you'll probably get in hot water if you make it a point to follow this guy around and play with him 24/7. If some guy wants to bet a high-variance sidebet on your hand and split the winnings without asking for you to absorb any of the losses, you're looking at a 100% edge.

StandardDeviant · Dec 30, 2009

"I pity the fool..."

Mr. T said:

The problem with streaks is that they only exist in the past; they don't tell us squat about what will happen in the future. They are therefore useless amusements.

The human mind is a pattern matching engine...and it will attempt to impose patterns where none exist. All sorts of errors in judgment are made as a result.

bjcount · Dec 30, 2009

Your winning... the streaks continuing.... the counts down to TC -4.... your bets near max... you got a 9 vs 5.....

You should have a min bet out but you chipped up to near max.

How ya gona play it?

Well I'm in a streak.... double down? Risk it all for one more hand in the current streak?

Placing big bets with big risks (-2% disadvantage) is not how we do it.

BJC

StandardDeviant · Dec 30, 2009

The only streaks I've found to be persistent are...losing streaks.

StandardDeviant · Dec 30, 2009

Billy C1 said:

Actually, we could argue that there is no such thing. It's sort of like when we look up at the clouds and say "That cloud is shaped like a bunny rabbit."

But actually it isn't.

The cloud isn't "shaped" at all; it just is. We look at the clouds and see a pattern that isn't really there. We distort reality by assuming patterns where there are none. We make cognitive errors when we do that.

The same thing happens when we see "streaks" in the cards. They aren't there.

Streaks? Am I thinking like a ploppy?

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