UFC Heavyweights Finale

[Deathclutch]

Here's a couple picks for Strikeforce's card on Saturday.

The two locks are definitely

Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

It's pretty obvious that Strikeforce plans on building up Lashley for as long as possible. After seeing Sims on the most recent Ultimate Fighter I don't see how he has a chance in the slightest in this fight. Look for a fairly quick TKO finish from some GnP.

Cristiane Santos vs. Marloes Coenen

It will be a long time before you see me pick any female over Cyborg. I like Coenen as I really enjoy submission fighters, but I doubt she'll even get Cyborg to the ground.

And for the two "iffier" picks

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Žaromskis

As much as I can't stand Nick Diaz he just keeps on winning with his pitter patter punches, and I expect to see a bunch of the same with a UD coming his way.

Melvin Manhoef vs. Robbie Lawler

This will probably be the pick I regret making as it's mostly out of my dislike for Robbie Lawler and the fact that people think he's a top fighter. I'm not huge on Manhoef either, but since Lawler won't take it down he's not going to exploit Manhoef's weakness.

 

[Deathclutch]

Here's a couple picks for Strikeforce's card on Saturday.

The two locks are definitely

Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

It's pretty obvious that Strikeforce plans on building up Lashley for as long as possible. After seeing Sims on the most recent Ultimate Fighter I don't see how he has a chance in the slightest in this fight. Look for a fairly quick TKO finish from some GnP.

Cristiane Santos vs. Marloes Coenen

It will be a long time before you see me pick any female over Cyborg. I like Coenen as I really enjoy submission fighters, but I doubt she'll even get Cyborg to the ground.

And for the two "iffier" picks

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Žaromskis

As much as I can't stand Nick Diaz he just keeps on winning with his pitter patter punches, and I expect to see a bunch of the same with a UD coming his way.

Melvin Manhoef vs. Robbie Lawler

This will probably be the pick I regret making as it's mostly out of my dislike for Robbie Lawler and the fact that people think he's a top fighter. I'm not huge on Manhoef either, but since Lawler won't take it down he's not going to exploit Manhoef's weakness.

3-1 tonight. The loss on Manhoef was a lot like the loss on Jon Jones. Complete domination until something off the wall happens. Oh well, I suppose I should take 3-1. Overall record is now up to 14-7-1 and I expect it to rise quite a bit on the next UFC.

 

[MAZ]

Hey DC I read Herschel Walker dominated his debut. Did you see it? Did he look like a real fighter?

 

[Deathclutch]

Hey DC I read Herschel Walker dominated his debut. Did you see it? Did he look like a real fighter?

Herschel definitely dominated in his debut, but it wasn't due to his skill as much as it was due to the lack of skill from his opponent. Don't get me wrong, Herschel looked decent in there. He had a good understanding of the fundamentals, but his stand up contained absolutely no footwork or head movement. Luckily for him it looked like his opponent trained in Capoeira or some other form of dance fighting.

His ground game looked much better than his stand up, at least his ability to hold position and not get too anxious and lose it. He held side control well and even seemed to notice the value in obtaining the crucifix over mount. His opponent also wasn't a world beater on the ground, but it was obvious he knew some things and Herschel avoided them well.

If you heard the audio of the fight you'd definitely think Herschel was the next coming of Fedor though. Mauro Ranallo has to be the worst announcer in all of sports, not just MMA.

 

[Jack_Black]

Ufc 109

My picks for tonight.

straight bets

Coleman over Couture +305

Thiago over Swick +185

Trigg over Serra +142

You ready? You ready? LET'S GO!!!

 

[Deathclutch]

My picks for tonight.

straight bets

Coleman over Couture +305

Thiago over Swick +185

Trigg over Serra +142

You ready? You ready? LET'S GO!!!

I really really like your Thiago over Swick pick, but that Coleman over Couture is going to bite you in the ass.

 

[Deathclutch]

I'm gonna go ahead and get next month's cards picks out of the way here since I have quite a few.

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

Randy should be able to take this very easily via cardio and not being extremely one dimensional. Coleman gets vastly overrated all the time (as does Couture) and I'm not sure why. Randy out wrestles Coleman to a decision.

Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

This was a tough fight to pick because I like both of these guys and hate to see one of them lose but it's obvious Marquardt is the better all around fighter at this point. His striking is far better than Sonnen's and I don't know if Sonnen will be able to take him to the ground. I'm expecting a TKO from Marquardt.

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

Paulo Thiago is on the rise and Mike Swick should have stayed up a weight class. People confuse Swick with a top contender although I don't believe he'll really ever be at this weight class. Look for a submission from Thiago.

Damian Maia vs. Dan Miller

Easy call, one of my favorite fighters :laugh:

Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

Not a huge fan of either guy but giving this one to Serra.

Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz

Another fighter I really enjoy (and wish would drop to 145) is Mac Danzig. I think he is too well rounded for Buchholz.

Phillipe Nover vs. Rob Emerson

Mostapha Al Turk vs. Rolles Gracie

Very excited to see a Gracie back in the Octagon! Turk seems to be a guy the UFC uses to launch who they want to be stars so it seems Gracie is that guy now.

And the two iffier picks -

Brian Stann vs. Phil Davis

Don't really like Brian Stann, but I don't know much about Phil Davis. This will probably be my loss on this card.

Melvin Guillard vs. Ronnys Torres

I even had a sentence typed for Torres but it's just hard to go with a guy that you haven't seen a ton of. Torres has a submission game but if Guillard can avoid it he should take this on a TKO.

Looks like I went 6-3 on the night (Gracie and Al Turk didn't end up fighting each other.) Bringing the grand total to 20-10-1.

 

[Jack_Black]

good picks clutch.

I picked coleman because although he isn't very good, I don't like couture's going into retirement/coming out of retirement attitude. Plus I liked the 3-1 odds, and was hoping that was going to pay off big.

thiago is just a mean micky ficky. He's in the Brazilian special forces, killing drug kingpins and dodging bullets is his day job. going into the octagon is child's play for him.

trigg, well that was a tough call, and I think I forced that a little bit, talking to my friends who all thought serra was going to take it tonight.

All in all, not too bad of a loss. thiago paid off pretty big, almost enough to cover the two losses.

 

[Jack_Black]

We should start a new thread.

In the Octagon Investments, or something to that effect.:laugh:

 

[Deathclutch]

Yeah, the title is definitely way off at this point.

 

[Deathclutch]

This Saturday's card will be the hardest one to make my picks on that I've had in a long time. It's not that the fights are all that great, it's just that honestly I'm not sold on a lot of these fighters. Fighters such as Soszynski, Bonner, Cro Cop, Rothwell, etc, etc. I know they get hyped up to no end, and casual fans eat it up, but they honestly do not possess top tier well rounded skills, and they are being matched up against each other! This makes for some very difficult picks so let's see how I do.

Minotauro Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

People call Cain "pillow hands" a lot, but it's absolutely ridiculous. The guy obviously hits very hard and has cardio for days. I like Big Nog, I really do, but Cain is the future. A lot of people think Carwin will be the man to dethrone Lesnar (not sure why), but if I had to put my money on any heavyweight (in the UFC) being able to do it, it's Cain. Cain would crush Carwin, and I think he'll be too much for Nog provided he avoids a submission.


Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

This pick hurts to make. I hate hate hate Michael Bisping, and I really like Wanderlei, but if I was told to make a pick and my life depended on it then Bisping would be my choice. A few reasons, and most have to do with Wanderlei . . . or should I say Zombie Wanderlei. Wand has looked absolutely atrocious lately. His fight with Franklin was embarrassing. He lacks a killer instinct anymore, and he is not a technical striker. Bisping unfortunately has been getting better and better and has been using a lot better footwork recently. This footwork will be Wanderlei's downfall. Bisping will most likely embarrass Silva for three rounds before taking the UD.

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

Another fight between B level fighters so I suppose I'll pick who I think the better B level guy is. Not sold on either fighter though.

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

If Bader wrestles I see this going well for him. If not Keith Jardine might get herky jerky on him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Ben Rothwell

Another pick I hate making, but if I only picked fights I liked this event I would have only picked the main event. I don't think of Cro Cop as really an elite level fighter and it's mainly because he cannot handle a fighter that fights on the inside. Anyone that came in hard and frequent gave him tons of trouble. Back when he was knocking everyone out people were scared and sat on the outside with him. I don't think Ben will be scared, but I also think he's going to try to fight more on the outside with Cro Cop giving Cro Cop an advantage there.

I'm not even going to touch those other fights :whip:

 

[Deathclutch]

Looks like Ben Rothwell is now out, so Cro Cop is now facing Anthony Perosh. I see this as an easy win for Cro Cop.

 

[Jack_Black]

Yo clutch,

I've been analyzing the fights from sharps bettor perspective. been trying to pick the fights that sound like good investments with low risk, not necessarily who I think will win, aka picking everyone's favorites, which the sportsbook is already aware of.....but playing the odds in which the book has miscalculated the value of some fights. kinda of like picking undervalued stocks, and not even giving a second look to overpriced stocks. with that being said, here is my newbie attempt at a few good picks from an AP sportsbet angle.

Minotauro vs. Cain -105 vs -125

Don't understand but minotauro is the slight underdog. Don't quite understand why, but I won't question it any further

joe daddy vs george -300 vs +240

clearly daddy got it going on. But too much risk for this bet. not gonna place a bet unless I can find a fairer line.

Wanderlei vs. bisbing -155 vs +125

manageable risk, wandy should take it. has a slightly better record.

keith jardine vs bader +125 vs -155

bader to take it, and again acceptable risk

will add more later on......

 

[Deathclutch]

Yo clutch,

I've been analyzing the fights from sharps bettor perspective. been trying to pick the fights that sound like good investments with low risk, not necessarily who I think will win, aka picking everyone's favorites, which the sportsbook is already aware of.....but playing the odds in which the book has miscalculated the value of some fights. kinda of like picking undervalued stocks, and not even giving a second look to overpriced stocks. with that being said, here is my newbie attempt at a few good picks from an AP sportsbet angle.

Minotauro vs. Cain -105 vs -125

Don't understand but minotauro is the slight underdog. Don't quite understand why, but I won't question it any further

joe daddy vs george -300 vs +240

clearly daddy got it going on. But too much risk for this bet. not gonna place a bet unless I can find a fairer line.

Wanderlei vs. bisbing -155 vs +125

manageable risk, wandy should take it. has a slightly better record.

keith jardine vs bader +125 vs -155

bader to take it, and again acceptable risk

will add more later on......

I tend to not look at the lines as a lot of times they talk me into making bad picks. Very surprised that Cain and Bader are favorites though.

 

[Jack_Black]

ahhh, you must be making picks in terms of who you think will win, like a sports commentator. as opposed to my purpose of who I will think will win me some money. I know it's a tough gig, as I see that UFC bets tend to only be money line bets and not much else.

I'm set for wandy to take it. wandy has better wrestling for backup, which I think will be important as bisbing is known for knocking guys out, and wandy is known for taking brutal beatings, not quitting, and then winning. I don't like how he's lost quite a few lately, but they've at least been against very good fighters. I would hope that this will make him hungry for the win tonight since he's in a drought.

also, I see why cain is the favorite. You and a lot of other comments I've heard favor the up and comer. but tonight will be the real test......

 

[Deathclutch]

This Saturday's card will be the hardest one to make my picks on that I've had in a long time. It's not that the fights are all that great, it's just that honestly I'm not sold on a lot of these fighters. Fighters such as Soszynski, Bonner, Cro Cop, Rothwell, etc, etc. I know they get hyped up to no end, and casual fans eat it up, but they honestly do not possess top tier well rounded skills, and they are being matched up against each other! This makes for some very difficult picks so let's see how I do.

Minotauro Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

People call Cain "pillow hands" a lot, but it's absolutely ridiculous. The guy obviously hits very hard and has cardio for days. I like Big Nog, I really do, but Cain is the future. A lot of people think Carwin will be the man to dethrone Lesnar (not sure why), but if I had to put my money on any heavyweight (in the UFC) being able to do it, it's Cain. Cain would crush Carwin, and I think he'll be too much for Nog provided he avoids a submission.


Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

This pick hurts to make. I hate hate hate Michael Bisping, and I really like Wanderlei, but if I was told to make a pick and my life depended on it then Bisping would be my choice. A few reasons, and most have to do with Wanderlei . . . or should I say Zombie Wanderlei. Wand has looked absolutely atrocious lately. His fight with Franklin was embarrassing. He lacks a killer instinct anymore, and he is not a technical striker. Bisping unfortunately has been getting better and better and has been using a lot better footwork recently. This footwork will be Wanderlei's downfall. Bisping will most likely embarrass Silva for three rounds before taking the UD.

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

Another fight between B level fighters so I suppose I'll pick who I think the better B level guy is. Not sold on either fighter though.

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

If Bader wrestles I see this going well for him. If not Keith Jardine might get herky jerky on him.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Ben Rothwell

Another pick I hate making, but if I only picked fights I liked this event I would have only picked the main event. I don't think of Cro Cop as really an elite level fighter and it's mainly because he cannot handle a fighter that fights on the inside. Anyone that came in hard and frequent gave him tons of trouble. Back when he was knocking everyone out people were scared and sat on the outside with him. I don't think Ben will be scared, but I also think he's going to try to fight more on the outside with Cro Cop giving Cro Cop an advantage there.

I'm not even going to touch those other fights :whip:

Most of these fights went just as I expected except for Stevenson and Sotiropoulos. I never knew George had that in him! Although I lost on the Wanderlei and Bisping fight I knew it was going to be much closer than most expected. Finally it looks like Wanderlei has got some speed again! Cro Cop vs. The Hippo was about as one sided as it gets and Cain vs. Nog was just another young guy taking out one of the all time greats. 3-2 on the night making me an overall 23-12-1.

 

[Jack_Black]

Most of these fights went just as I expected except for Stevenson and Sotiropoulos. I never knew George had that in him! Although I lost on the Wanderlei and Bisping fight I knew it was going to be much closer than most expected. Finally it looks like Wanderlei has got some speed again! Cro Cop vs. The Hippo was about as one sided as it gets and Cain vs. Nog was just another young guy taking out one of the all time greats. 3-2 on the night making me an overall 23-12-1.

It's a good thing I didn't take the Joe daddy bet. I was really shocked to see that much favoritism on joe. 3 to1? For the daddy and Cain fight, they are both up and comers, and it's really hard to judge how they'll do, it could really go either way. As I got Nog @ -105, the line moved to even for both sides the night of the fight. BOth fights shouldve been considered upsets. Wouldn't you agree? I was at a big bar called CB potts, and the crowd was silent when Nog got "Nogged" out. Both in the bar and on TV. You made a good call on Cain, but that was just such a shock for everybody.

Joe daddy was kind of a shock but within expectation.

I was riding on Wandy to be hungry for a win, but I don't think his losing streak was necessarily a bad one. They were all against Big names. The nobodies he would kill. hence "the axe murderer." Bisping also had only lost to big namers, except his "great" record of 19-2 was against no namers. So I saw his weakness right there.

I went 2-1 which left me up 1.9 units. And this might sound like ploppy talk, but I'm wondering if it's better to stay out of fights that are slightly hyped up from the spin of the up and comer going against the veteran, as those seem to be where most of the upsets come from.

 

[Deathclutch]

It's a good thing I didn't take the Joe daddy bet. I was really shocked to see that much favoritism on joe. 3 to1? For the daddy and Cain fight, they are both up and comers, and it's really hard to judge how they'll do, it could really go either way. As I got Nog @ -105, the line moved to even for both sides the night of the fight. BOth fights shouldve been considered upsets. Wouldn't you agree? I was at a big bar called CB potts, and the crowd was silent when Nog got "Nogged" out. Both in the bar and on TV. You made a good call on Cain, but that was just such a shock for everybody.

Joe daddy was kind of a shock but within expectation.

I was riding on Wandy to be hungry for a win, but I don't think his losing streak was necessarily a bad one. They were all against Big names. The nobodies he would kill. hence "the axe murderer." Bisping also had only lost to big namers, except his "great" record of 19-2 was against no namers. So I saw his weakness right there.

I went 2-1 which left me up 1.9 units. And this might sound like ploppy talk, but I'm wondering if it's better to stay out of fights that are slightly hyped up from the spin of the up and comer going against the veteran, as those seem to be where most of the upsets come from.

I think the most surprising thing was the speed difference between Nog and Cain. Was Nog wearing ankle weights and a neck collar in that fight?

The Bisping/Leban fight is what made me pick Bisping after watching Wand in his fight with Rich. If Wand was as slow as he was at 195 Bisping would have taken it, but Wand looked like he had his old speed back which makes me very happy. Always nice to see Bisping take a loss.

 

[Deathclutch]

Almost forgot the fights tonight. Quick picks since I'm running out of time.

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello
via superior striking.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga
via not having a weak heart.

Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones
via superior athleticism - as long as his shoddy striking defense holds up. He better use that reach.

And my most hated pick because I hate this fighter

Clay Guida vs. Shannon Gugerty
via usual blanket style.

 

[Deathclutch]

Almost forgot the fights tonight. Quick picks since I'm running out of time.

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello
via superior striking.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga
via not having a weak heart.

Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones
via superior athleticism - as long as his shoddy striking defense holds up. He better use that reach.

And my most hated pick because I hate this fighter

Clay Guida vs. Shannon Gugerty
via usual blanket style.

Perfection for 27-12-1