Very confused about betting spread

[RIFT]

Hey guys,

Fairly new to card counting. I am trying to determine a bet spread that I could use for my bankroll of $6000. The casino I play at the most uses 8 decks, S17, DAS, LS, 75% pen. $15 min. Pretty decent rules IMO. After watching Semyon Dukach's DVD "Blackjack Science", I was under the impression that you bet one unit for every true count minus 1. I have been using $20 units because my bankroll is replenishable. However, after reading some posts on the forums here, I'm afraid that this spread may be too conservative as I wouldn't be betting 10 units until TC+11. Can anyone weigh in on Dukach's advice regarding this bet spread? Does it only work well when you play with >$100 unit at a $25 min table? Thanks guys!

 

[Gamblor]

Way too conservative. I don't recall the last time a TC went to +10 for me, let me put it that way.

 

[Midwestern]

this spread is way too slow.

you should hit your max bet by tc4.

and your max bet should be properly sized as a proportion of your bankroll. Betting TC-1 units is an ineffective way to play shoe games.

It would only be good for single deck 3:2 blackjack.

 

[The Suburbs]

Spread is a function of your minimum bet ($15 in this instance) and maximum bet (which would generally depend on your bankroll). Technically the term spread has nothing to do with your "units", it's just the multiple of your minimum bet to your maximum bet.

Since your bankroll is replenishable, I'd try using $50 units rather than $20 units. So at a TC = 4, you'd be betting (4-1 offset) x $50 + $15, which would put you at $165, or an effective 11-1 spread. Adding a unit for each TC over 1, you'd be betting $65 @ TC = 2, $115 @ TC = 3, and $165 @ TC = 4. You can round to your liking. A $165 max bet would only give you 40 or so max bets, but a replenishable bankroll will help keep you in the game if you get a bad run of variance. Basically, hope you get a good bout of positive variance and adjust your max bet according to how your bankroll grows.

When I first started, I had a difficult time defining bankroll/spread/units, but you learn as you go. FWIW, I learned on a very similar 8D game.

Edit: Also, with a smaller bankroll, make sure you're wonging out aggressively in TC = -1 or less. Very little room for error.

 

[RIFT]

Suburbs-

Thanks for the response! Any idea what kind of average advantage I would have with the $15-$165 bet spread that you mentioned? Or if I wanted to spread more conservatevly and bet $15-$120? I am trying to find out if the average advantage would be less than or greater than 1%. Thanks!

 

[Solo player]

15x165 is not enough.Thats only 1x11.
15x200 would be better.
Maybe even wong out at real negative counts.

 

[21gunsalute]

15x165 is not enough.Thats only 1x11.
15x200 would be better.
Maybe even wong out at real negative counts.

With a $6000 bankroll? What's his ROR? 75%?

 

[Zero]

I was under the impression that you bet one unit for every true count minus 1. I have been using $20 units because my bankroll is replenishable. However, after reading some posts on the forums here, I'm afraid that this spread may be too conservative as I wouldn't be betting 10 units until TC+11. Can anyone weigh in on Dukach's advice regarding this bet spread? Does it only work well when you play with >$100 unit at a $25 min table?

See my post in a previous thread very similar to this one. To use that formula, you need to have a betting unit (BU) higher than the table min, and you need to be spreading to 2 hands using the formula to determine how much to bet on each hand. So with a $25 BU on a $15 min table using the formula, the ramp would look like:
TC < 2 : $15
TC = 2 : 2 x $25
TC = 3 : 2 x $50
TC = 4 : 2 x $75
Giving you a spread of $15-$150. But this is a sub-optimal betting ramp.

Any idea what kind of average advantage I would have with the $15-$165 bet spread that you mentioned? Or if I wanted to spread more conservatevly and bet $15-$120? I am trying to find out if the average advantage would be less than or greater than 1%. Thanks!

You'll need to provide way more info for someone to calculate an average advantage for you. If you really want to understand your advantage, and the nuances of your betting ramp, you should take some of your bankroll and invest in some good software, particularly CVCX. One thing you'd notice quickly is with a 6K bank spreading 15-150 (or 15-165), your RoR is > 25%. Good thing your bankroll is replenishable

0

 

[NightStalker]

What's with tc +4?

this spread is way too slow.

you should hit your max bet by tc4.

and your max bet should be properly sized as a proportion of your bankroll. Betting TC-1 units is an ineffective way to play shoe games.

It would only be good for single deck 3:2 blackjack.

IMO, Betting TC-1 units works great for shoe games..

 

[NightStalker]

Great spread

Hey guys,

Fairly new to card counting. I am trying to determine a bet spread that I could use for my bankroll of $6000. The casino I play at the most uses 8 decks, S17, DAS, LS, 75% pen. $15 min. Pretty decent rules IMO. After watching Semyon Dukach's DVD "Blackjack Science", I was under the impression that you bet one unit for every true count minus 1. I have been using $20 units because my bankroll is replenishable. However, after reading some posts on the forums here, I'm afraid that this spread may be too conservative as I wouldn't be betting 10 units until TC+11. Can anyone weigh in on Dukach's advice regarding this bet spread? Does it only work well when you play with >$100 unit at a $25 min table? Thanks guys!

Bet (TC-1)xUnit is the best spread I can think of..
As per your formula, your bet = 0 on TC<1
If your bet =15$ which is like 0.75unit for 20$unit, this spread become ineffective.. Ideally we like to make it as close to zero as possible. For 15min, 100$ unit would do fine.. For 20$unit, 5$min bets are okay..

 

[caramel6]

spread

See my post in a previous thread very similar to this one. To use that formula, you need to have a betting unit (BU) higher than the table min, and you need to be spreading to 2 hands using the formula to determine how much to bet on each hand. So with a $25 BU on a $15 min table using the formula, the ramp would look like:
TC < 2 : $15
TC = 2 : 2 x $25
TC = 3 : 2 x $50
TC = 4 : 2 x $75
Giving you a spread of $15-$150. But this is a sub-optimal betting ramp.


You'll need to provide way more info for someone to calculate an average advantage for you. If you really want to understand your advantage, and the nuances of your betting ramp, you should take some of your bankroll and invest in some good software, particularly CVCX. One thing you'd notice quickly is with a 6K bank spreading 15-150 (or 15-165), your RoR is > 25%. Good thing your bankroll is replenishable

0

a question: is it worthwhile to wong in if 3 out of 5 boxes are already taken? And if only one box left?

 

[Zero]

With a $6000 bankroll? What's his ROR? 75%?

No, not quite that bad. Making a lot of assumption (using Hi-Lo with I18, wong out at -1), even spreading 15-200 his RoR would still be below 50%. What would really kill him would be playing $25 min tables. Then his RoR would indicate he should take his bank, go to the high limit room, and bet it all on the first hand off the top of the shoe. :laugh::whip:

0

 

[Solo player]

With a $6000 bankroll? What's his ROR? 75%?

With a15x200 dollar spread. According to CVCX. Playing hi-lo swt16, fab four. 20 hours of play/2000 hands trip ruin would be a little over 1.25%

 

[Zero]

If your bet =15$ which is like 0.75unit for 20$unit, this spread become ineffective.. Ideally we like to make it as close to zero as possible. For 15min, 100$ unit would do fine.. For 20$unit, 5$min bets are okay..

So for 15min, you're going to go from $15 at TC=1 to $100 at TC=2?

0

 

[Zero]

a question: is it worthwhile to wong in if 3 out of 5 boxes are already taken? And if only one box left?

I'd say sure. If you can play a hand with an advantage over the house, do it. You can always wong out when the count goes back to neutral.

0

 

[RIFT]

So do you think it would be wise to implement the following bet spread:

TC-1>TC+1 = $15

TC+2= $40

TC+3= $80

>TC+4= $120

I understand that ideally it would be nice to play at a $5 or $10 min. table, but $15 is the smallest tables that they offer. I guess the question is: is this enough of a bet spread to make it worth playing? Thanks so much guys!

 

[Midwestern]

So do you think it would be wise to implement the following bet spread:

TC-1>TC+1 = $15

TC+2= $40

TC+3= $80

>TC+4= $120

I understand that ideally it would be nice to play at a $5 or $10 min. table, but $15 is the smallest tables that they offer. I guess the question is: is this enough of a bet spread to make it worth playing? Thanks so much guys!

this would be a 1-8 spread.

too low in my opinion.

Double your bets at TC2,3,and 4 and NOW we're talking.

That way you are only betting amounts proportional to the edge you have at that particular TC.

so, in summary:

TC-1>TC+1 = $15

TC+2= $80

TC+3= $160

>TC+4= $240

 

[RIFT]

MidWestern,

That sounds good. I'm just afraid that with my $5-$6k bankroll that $15-$240 spread would leave me with a pretty high RoR. It's funny, on the Blackjack Science DVD, Dukach explained that the formula TC-1(unit) would leave the player with an average advantage of 1%. And he goes on to say that "Ideally, your minimum is not much more than your unit. It could be a little more than your unit sometimes." This gives me the impression that playing at a $15 min. table, a $30 unit would be more than enough i.e.

TC=1 $15
TC=2 $30
TC=3 $60
TC=4 $90

But it seems that the general concensus on this forum is that a 1-6 bet spread is not enough to make any money at all, yet Dukach says that this spread will give the player an average advantage of 1%. Is there something I'm missing here? I would rather play with the smaller spread if I knew that I had an advantage of 1%, but from what I've been reading on this post, it seems like the concensus is that I will lose money if I use this spread.

 

[Midwestern]

MidWestern,

That sounds good. I'm just afraid that with my $5-$6k bankroll that $15-$240 spread would leave me with a pretty high RoR. It's funny, on the Blackjack Science DVD, Dukach explained that the formula TC-1(unit) would leave the player with an average advantage of 1%. And he goes on to say that "Ideally, your minimum is not much more than your unit. It could be a little more than your unit sometimes." This gives me the impression that playing at a $15 min. table, a $30 unit would be more than enough i.e.

TC=1 $15
TC=2 $30
TC=3 $60
TC=4 $90

But it seems that the general concensus on this forum is that a 1-6 bet spread is not enough to make any money at all, yet Dukach says that this spread will give the player an average advantage of 1%. Is there something I'm missing here? I would rather play with the smaller spread if I knew that I had an advantage of 1%, but from what I've been reading on this post, it seems like the concensus is that I will lose money if I use this spread.

yes your BR will be limiting you on this one. and you will have a higher ROR if you spread to $240.

Spreading to $90 is much safer for your ROR. I have the same BR you do and i spread $5-$100.

please note, the main indicator of player advantage is the TC. The spread is just how you exploit it. So if you average bet $100 and the advantage is 1%, you will "expect" $1. But if you bet $1000, your expectation is $10. Notice that Nothing about your bet size changed the % player edge (this is precisely the fallacy that most betting systems try to tote)

playing with a smaller spread does not allow you to recoup the money you "bleed" to the casino at lower TC. A higher spread puts you in the driver seat.

If possible, id bet 5$ on bad counts and lose 0.5% per hand there and 100,000 on great counts and gain 1% per hand there. but that spread is not practical to our bankroll, heat, or our longevity in that casino. Therefore we balance all those factors.

What Dukach said is correct- the table minimum doesnt necessarily have to be your base unit. However, if you expect to maximize your return, you should not have a minimum bet that is higher than your base unit. your are effectiely diluting your spread and hurting your overall profitability. If you wong extremely effectively, you can get away with this though. By not betting until the count approaches your TC2 bet-ramp, you would be placing your first bet at an appropriate size for your bankroll for the situation.

with the spread above, you could theoretically play a $25 minimum table, but only play at TC2 or above. nothing wrong with that. just good luck finding those shoes! wonging is beautiful in theory but difficult to deploy in action.

Most AP's on this play off the top of a shoe and wong out if the count isnt going anywhere. backcounting and wonging in at selected levels is much harder.

 

[The Suburbs]

MidWestern,

That sounds good. I'm just afraid that with my $5-$6k bankroll that $15-$240 spread would leave me with a pretty high RoR. It's funny, on the Blackjack Science DVD, Dukach explained that the formula TC-1(unit) would leave the player with an average advantage of 1%. And he goes on to say that "Ideally, your minimum is not much more than your unit. It could be a little more than your unit sometimes." This gives me the impression that playing at a $15 min. table, a $30 unit would be more than enough i.e.

TC=1 $15
TC=2 $30
TC=3 $60
TC=4 $90

But it seems that the general concensus on this forum is that a 1-6 bet spread is not enough to make any money at all, yet Dukach says that this spread will give the player an average advantage of 1%. Is there something I'm missing here? I would rather play with the smaller spread if I knew that I had an advantage of 1%, but from what I've been reading on this post, it seems like the concensus is that I will lose money if I use this spread.

I don't think you heard Dukach correctly, as I don't remember him saying that your minimum should be the same size your betting unit. Optimally, your minimum should be as low as possible regardless of your betting unit. Realistically, it's not possible to have such a large difference between your betting unit size and minimum without team play because of heat. Having a $100 betting unit and playing $15 minimum tables would mean jumping from $15 to $100-115 between TC = 1 to TC = 2 hands. Also, I believe Dukach referenced the 1% advantage when talking about the statistics behind APing and calculating long-term EV. I don't think he ever related spread to the 1% advantage.

That being said, a 1-6 spread won't beat a 6-8 deck shoe game unless you're aggressively wonging. I would say a 1-12 spread is fine for a good shoe game like the one you're playing, with some wonging out at negative counts. Plus, I'd rather have my max bet be 2-3% of my bankroll vs. 4-5% of my bankroll. One thing you may want to consider is slightly raising your bet at TC = 1 (say, by half a unit?). With the favorable rules of the game you're playing, you'll actually be playing at a slight advantage at TC = 1 and your ramp when the count gets to TC = 4 will seem slightly less aggressive to the store.