wonging out

[GAGE COUNTY]

I am curious if anyone knows what kind of an advantage gain you get when u wong out at say -2 as compared to playing all hands. I mean if you are at a
.50%-1.0% advantage playing every hand while counting and betting accordingly, what kind of an advantage would you have if you got up at -2.
Is there a way to sim this? Backcounting and wonging in really isnt an option for me as I try and play when few people are at the casinos. But it is easy for me to go take a phone call or bathroom break if i need to.
Also, how does everyone else handle settting a cut off point for losses. I lost $400 in about 10 min, the count was up to +10 using ko and I was spread to two spots betting my max ($30 x 2) ($5-$60 spread) dealer kept getting 20's and I'd end up with a 17 or stiff and bust. $400 is a chunk of my BR ($3000) and I was wondering at what point do i call it a day if i cant win. I wanted to keep putting more out there as I obviously had a good advantage but started to feel myself getting pissed and decided to quit. what is everyone elses stopping point or does it vary from day to day? Thanks for the feedback.

 

[Sonny]

I am curious if anyone knows what kind of an advantage gain you get when u wong out at say -2 as compared to playing all hands.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/blackjack-attack.html

what is everyone elses stopping point or does it vary from day to day?

I don't use stop-loss point, but I do resize my bets if I lose a certain percentage of my bankroll. Quitting during a high positive count only makes it that much harder to win it back. If you lose a big chunk of your bankroll it makes sense to take a break, but how big of a loss you are willing to accept is up to you. It would also depend on how soon you can replenish your bankroll.

-Sonny-

 

[bjcount]

I am curious if anyone knows what kind of an advantage gain you get when u wong out at say -2 as compared to playing all hands. I mean if you are at a
.50%-1.0% advantage playing every hand while counting and betting accordingly, what kind of an advantage would you have if you got up at -2.
Is there a way to sim this? Backcounting and wonging in really isnt an option for me as I try and play when few people are at the casinos. But it is easy for me to go take a phone call or bathroom break if i need to.
Also, how does everyone else handle settting a cut off point for losses. I lost $400 in about 10 min, the count was up to +10 using ko and I was spread to two spots betting my max ($30 x 2) ($5-$60 spread) dealer kept getting 20's and I'd end up with a 17 or stiff and bust. $400 is a chunk of my BR ($3000) and I was wondering at what point do i call it a day if i cant win. I wanted to keep putting more out there as I obviously had a good advantage but started to feel myself getting pissed and decided to quit. what is everyone elses stopping point or does it vary from day to day? Thanks for the feedback.

If you read Playing BJ as a Business by Revere, he suggest 30 units up or down to be your quitting point. Keep in mind that times have changed since his time and there are different opinions on this. If you use RPC (level 2) the advantage changes approx 0.50% per 1 TC. Depending upon the rules of the game you play, if TC=0 giving you a -0.40 disadvantage, then a TC=-2 would be approx -1.40% disadvantage.

Check out Blackjack Attack or other high quality publications, they usually have charts with adv/disadv broken down by rules.

If you get CVCX by Qfit you can run the sims for wonging and play all. There is a big difference in each neg count you play. Take a look at these. The min bet dropped to keep the same 0.5 kelly factor

BJC

 

[GAGE COUNTY]

I just ordered the book, thanks for the comments and sim. It looks like wonging out should be a no brainer if possible. I think my stop loss should be more than $150 but less than $400. The hard part for me is that I want my money out there when the count is so high, but think that at some point I should draw the line. The mental part of losing the money doesnt bother me as I know I'll get it back eventually. What pisses me off is all the other clowns at the table who have no clue what is going on are getting 20's and BJs on their min bets, and keep saying "oh another 16 for you, that sucks".

 

[bjcount]

I just ordered the book, thanks for the comments and sim. It looks like wonging out should be a no brainer if possible. I think my stop loss should be more than $150 but less than $400. The hard part for me is that I want my money out there when the count is so high, but think that at some point I should draw the line. The mental part of losing the money doesnt bother me as I know I'll get it back eventually. What pisses me off is all the other clowns at the table who have no clue what is going on are getting 20's and BJs on their min bets, and keep saying "oh another 16 for you, that sucks".

If you ordered PBJaAB, keep in mind its great to develop discipline and the correct way to develop your abilities. If you plan to use RPC the indices in the book are for SD.
Sounds like your overbetting by the statement you made above.
Keep your eyes on the road ... not on the drunken clowns.

BJC

 

[GAGE COUNTY]

I will not be using the counting method in the book. I am happy with REKO, I will just be reading for more weapons to get the money. I agree with you that I am overbetting my br, but it is replenishable and I feel that playing 6 decks I should at least be spreading 1-12. Soon I hope to be combining my br with two others and still bet the same. I dont know what my ror is but I'm sure its high. I dont want to lose 3 g's but it wont kill me if I do.

 

[bjcount]

I will not be using the counting method in the book. I am happy with REKO, I will just be reading for more weapons to get the money. I agree with you that I am overbetting my br, but it is replenishable and I feel that playing 6 decks I should at least be spreading 1-12. Soon I hope to be combining my br with two others and still bet the same. I dont know what my ror is but I'm sure its high. I dont want to lose 3 g's but it wont kill me if I do.

Sorry I misinterpreted you, I thought it said you bet $400.
The spread 1-12 is good, but check your two hand spread.
If you are going out to 2 and your at max bet with 1, then the 2 hands should be approx. 2/3 to 3/4 of your 1 hand max each.
40x2 or 45x2

BJC

 

[sagefr0g]

not advice

I am curious if anyone knows what kind of an advantage gain you get when u wong out at say -2 as compared to playing all hands. I mean if you are at a
.50%-1.0% advantage playing every hand while counting and betting accordingly, what kind of an advantage would you have if you got up at -2.
Is there a way to sim this? Backcounting and wonging in really isnt an option for me as I try and play when few people are at the casinos. But it is easy for me to go take a phone call or bathroom break if i need to.
Also, how does everyone else handle settting a cut off point for losses. I lost $400 in about 10 min, the count was up to +10 using ko and I was spread to two spots betting my max ($30 x 2) ($5-$60 spread) dealer kept getting 20's and I'd end up with a 17 or stiff and bust. $400 is a chunk of my BR ($3000) and I was wondering at what point do i call it a day if i cant win. I wanted to keep putting more out there as I obviously had a good advantage but started to feel myself getting pissed and decided to quit. what is everyone elses stopping point or does it vary from day to day? Thanks for the feedback.

i guess your ROR with a three grand bankroll and a 1-12 spread is fairly high as subjective as the term 'fairly high' may be, lol. maybe your ROR is something you might want to examine. i'm assumming your mainly a recreational player that would like to make some modest gains in your bankroll. if you don't have one already, it may be well worth your loss of 20 units or so on a good bet of picking up a simulator like cvb & cvcx. that way you could get a handle on risk of ruin and various tacts as far as betting spreads.

then far as "wondering at what point do i call it a day if i cant win", sort of thing i guess you probably know that might be considered a voodoo subject amongst the orthodox crowd. i think most would tell you to keep playing until your trip bankroll can no longer support doubling down and splitting. they will say as long as your playing with an advantage, not to worry you'll eventually come out on top of the game. but they might also advise you on ways of lowering your ROR. probably advise you on wonging as you've already alluded to above.

well, i've got a not so big bankroll as well. i'll just tell you what my philosphy is, what i aim to do and often enough don't succeed in doing. i have a set trip bankroll, $300 and a $6000 lifetime bankroll. i just play $5 min tables or lower. tawkin six and eight deck shoes here.
me, i figure i can lose the trip bankroll for 'now' and still survive a while. so most trips i might be willing to play until i lose the trip bankroll. that's not always my frame of mind but usually (sometimes i'm just not even willing to lose that much). my spread is pretty much 1-8 but i'm not very disciplined on that. i might chicken out and just go 1-5. my counting is well not really counting. i just mentally 'gauge' the richness of the aces and faces left to be dealt with this nebulous fuzzy count process i do. then i might make a 'calculated' gamble when i think the time is right. but i can count and bet orthodox and sometimes do. just depends. lol.
anyway, so but one thing i do know with good accuracy is what a perfect counter with a 1-8 spread according to number of hands played would expect for the games i play. if i achieve the expectation or better of said perfect counter with my voodoo approach by hook or crook then i'm out of Dodge unless the pack remaining to be dealt is obviously rich in aces & faces. it always surprises me how often just playing basic strategy and flat betting that i find myself exceeding in a very short period of time the expectation of a perfect counter for a much longer time period. by getting out of Dodge i don't mean necessarily that i go home, maybe just exit that table (with those winnings in my pocket). maybe i'll fool around a while and then start out a fresh table ready to be dealt, maybe (rarely) i'll wong in on a table. my hopes and dreams far as doing it that way is based on a knowledge that for six and eight deck games it's pretty much the case that 70% or so of the time your gonna be dealing with a disadvantageous count. so i figure most times that i exit a table with a profit comparable to a perfect counter that i'm probably leaving a disavantageous situation. alternatively, when i start out a shoe and the 'count' is going negative, i might stay if i'm just lucky and winning, but if i' start losing in that situation i'll bail on such a table as well.
so most of my trips i only plan to stay about 3 hours. i know how much a perfect counter spreading 1-8 can expect to make in that much time. if i make that much i'll usually go home early.
well anyway at the bottom of the post in the link below is a spread sheet that along with a good simulator such as cvcx can help one figure out things such as expectations and standard deviation for a given number of rounds. it maybe could help you figure out when a good time to get out of Dodge might be.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=108845&postcount=209

 

[callipygian]

I am curious if anyone knows what kind of an advantage gain you get when u wong out at say -2 as compared to playing all hands.

You won't gain an advantage solely by Wonging out, but IIRC Wonging out when the count hits -2 will knock the house advantage in half. Wonging out when the count hits -1 will essentially negate the house advantage, but also drastically reduce the number of hands per hour that you play.

When considering Wonging, hands per hour is just as important as EV - if you halve your hands per hour for a 10% increase in EV, your win rate goes down. So win rate, not EV, is the eventual measure of success.

 

[moo321]

You won't gain an advantage solely by Wonging out, but IIRC Wonging out when the count hits -2 will knock the house advantage in half. Wonging out when the count hits -1 will essentially negate the house advantage, but also drastically reduce the number of hands per hour that you play.

When considering Wonging, hands per hour is just as important as EV - if you halve your hands per hour for a 10% increase in EV, your win rate goes down. So win rate, not EV, is the eventual measure of success.

Wonging out of negative counts won't drop your EV.

It WILL drop your variance, and therefore your risk of ruin a lot. Certainty correlation goes up a lot with wonging. That's why back-counting 6 deckers can be better for a small bankroll than a good single or double deck game.

 

[Kasi]

I am curious if anyone knows what kind of an advantage gain you get when u wong out at say -2 as compared to playing all hands. I mean if you are at a .50%-1.0% advantage playing every hand while counting and betting accordingly, what kind of an advantage would you have if you got up at -2.
Is there a way to sim this? Backcounting and wonging in really isnt an option for me

Do I understand your question to be basically you start at the top of every shoe and leave the table at a certain count never to play another hand in that shoe?

If so, bjcount's sims appear to be "back-counting" sims and I don't think the 2things are at all the same.

I'd imagine frequencies experienced of TC's would be very different? So that would change alot of things. Guessing time between starting the next shoe could be a factor too in any hourly win rate consderation.

 

[Kasi]

BJC

Hi bjcount - just a general question for you or anyone.

I keep seeing that "Departure " box toward the top and just wondered what it is for or when it would be used.

 

[GAGE COUNTY]

yeah kasi I would be getting up and going to the bathroom or taking a phone call or if I see a new shoe starting at a different table I will color up and go there at around a -2. I actually use ko so it will be at -22 at one deck out, -17 at two decks out, and -12 at three decks out. Backcounting would be hard to do and draw alot of attention so i would prob just wong out at bad counts. I'm wondering what effect this has on my long term advantage over the house and what kind of gains I can expect from it as opposed to playing all hands. Thanks to eveyone for the replies.

 

[sagefr0g]

Hi bjcount - just a general question for you or anyone.
I keep seeing that "Departure " box toward the top and just wondered what it is for or when it would be used.

from cvcx help:
Departure Adjustment - This option only appears when Back-Counting is selected. CVCX normally assumes that you play all hands at or above the selected count. However, most people will stay at the table for awhile if the count dips below that Wong-In point. This feature is based on a methodology posted by DD’. When selected, an estimate is made of the SCORE and Win Rate as if you exited the table when the count has dropped to the first row of counts displayed (normally -1.) Note: This is only an estimate. CVData must be used to calculate the exact numbers. Also, you can enter a number. This is the number of hands that it would take you to find a new table. So, if you enter 10, you are estimating that it you will waste ten hands looking for a new table and the Win Rate will be decreased accordingly.

 

[sagefr0g]

... Backcounting would be hard to do and draw alot of attention so i would prob just wong out at bad counts. ..

one thing about that situation Gage. i mean i definately know what you mean about the difficulty factor, same for me. thing is when you think about it, yeah it's probably not something we may not be able to consistantly do but probably every so often we could get away with it. just a thought.

 

[bjcount]

Originally Posted by GAGE COUNTY
I am curious if anyone knows what kind of an advantage gain you get when u wong out at say -2 as compared to playing all hands. I mean if you are at a .50%-1.0% advantage playing every hand while counting and betting accordingly, what kind of an advantage would you have if you got up at -2.
Is there a way to sim this? Backcounting and wonging in really isnt an option for me

Quote = Kasi
Do I understand your question to be basically you start at the top of every shoe and leave the table at a certain count never to play another hand in that shoe?

If so, bjcount's sims appear to be "back-counting" sims and I don't think the 2things are at all the same.

I'd imagine frequencies experienced of TC's would be very different? So that would change alot of things. Guessing time between starting the next shoe could be a factor too in any hourly win rate consderation. .

Kasi,
Your correct in that the sims are back counting. I didn't look into the thought of playing from the top of the shoe and leaving when the count drops to -2 because the thread stated this,
"I mean if you are at a .50%-1.0% advantage playing every hand while counting and betting accordingly, what kind of an advantage would you have if you got up at -2.", which would be interpeted that the count was positive to begin with. Starting at the top of the shoe would not provide you with this advantage, I would say in the best case scenario it would be -0.35% to 0.




BJC

 

[GAGE COUNTY]

I must clarify what I meant by saying .5%-1%. I was trying to say that an average counter playing and betting correctly would probably have this advantage over the house on average for the simple fact that they would have more money on the tables at positive counts. Not for a particular shoe but over the long haul. I would think that not playing at the negative counts would make the counters advantage higher in the long term sense. I was wanting to know how much one could expect to gain in their long term advantage by wonging out.

 

[Kasi]

I will not be using the counting method in the book. I am happy with REKO, I will just be reading for more weapons to get the money. I agree with you that I am overbetting my br, but it is replenishable and I feel that playing 6 decks I should at least be spreading 1-12. Soon I hope to be combining my br with two others and still bet the same. I dont know what my ror is but I'm sure its high. I dont want to lose 3 g's but it wont kill me if I do.

You're killin' me Gage lol.

You can't really be "overbetting" your roll - you're just subjecting your roll that is allready at some unknown by you pretty "high" ROR level to an even higher unknown ROR.

You want to get the money out in high counts but you don't to where draw the line?

You wonder about stopping somewhere between a $150 and $400 session loss?

Yet "The mental part of losing the money doesnt bother me as I know I'll get it back eventually." Glad to hear it. In that case, I guess there's no problem at all and losing $400 in 10 minutes, a large chunk of your roll, is a non-issue.

All the more so since it's replenishable and then you can do it all over again, playing forever at some unknown "high" ROR with a "feeling" you should be spreading 1-12.

And you let yourself get all mad too when you lose a few hands?

You know, it just may be that that flat-betting perfect BS-playing clueless "clown" next to you might know exactly what to expect from the game he's playing. Might know enough to bring enough roll for a session so so he's not at all worried about losing it all. Might realize whether he stops playing now or later doesn't really matter. Won't even care when he gets the 16 and you get the 20.

What - I guess when you get the 20 and they get the 16, that makes you some kind of genius even though you are over-betting your roll and therefore making a stupid bet while you are doing it yet are supposed to know better?

Just my long-winded way usual "tough love" speech of trying to tell you, for heaven's sake, buy a sim and learn what to expect from your money.

Believe it or not, I'm on your side lol.

 

[GAGE COUNTY]

sagefrog you are right I could get away with it every once in a while. If I had a buddy there I could look over his shoulder and " decide to play" after the count came up. Or occassionally maybe try and backcount a full table in the hopes of someone getting up at a higher count. This has worked for me before. I look for the guy with a few chips left to get up and let me have his +6 seat. Then if I get real lucky I can split some tens and get someone else to leave allowing me to spread to two spots! ha. I will try in the future to look harder for more backcounting situations as I'm sure this would help my game a lot.

 

[GAGE COUNTY]

I love you too Kasi!and no offense meant towards the flat betting "clowns" I was just jealous. I do need a sim, you could buy me one for Christmas you know. ha