You're boldest bet spread and the results
- Thread starter FrankieT
- Start date
ror is objective
For fixed bets one faces whatever ror they choose.
Now
For Kelly resizing bets:
If one bets over 2x kelly the bank shrinks.
if one bets 2x Kelly the bank just fluctuates
If one bets 1.5x Kelly the growth is the same as betting
.5 Kelly but with a lot more variance.
Conclusion?
Given human error one should bet much less then Kelly.
For fixed bets one faces whatever ror they choose.
Now
For Kelly resizing bets:
If one bets over 2x kelly the bank shrinks.
if one bets 2x Kelly the bank just fluctuates
If one bets 1.5x Kelly the growth is the same as betting
.5 Kelly but with a lot more variance.
Conclusion?
Given human error one should bet much less then Kelly.
The problem is he didn't figure in the variance. You have to play a huge number of hands to hit your N0, how long do you think you can do this before you get barred from every casino you go to? Lets not focus on our likelihood to show huge profits for sure in a short period of time like an AP. Let's become a gambler that has an edge and hopes we have luck when it comes to variance. Do you guys really believe that is the smart way to play? I thought we were APs not gamblers.
N0 to big bets?
Big bets and large spreads are not themselves N0 increasing. It depends on the optimal bet ramp. One can lower the spread from optimal and get most of the return. However, with the optimal ramp those very big bets happen rarely and often table max's don't allow them.
Table max bets probably draw extra attention.
The math involving the certainty of bank growth means betting a small fraction of Kelly, which would keep bets smaller then a full Kelly player who faces serious bank drawdowns and a much longer long run.
Big bets and large spreads are not themselves N0 increasing. It depends on the optimal bet ramp. One can lower the spread from optimal and get most of the return. However, with the optimal ramp those very big bets happen rarely and often table max's don't allow them.
Table max bets probably draw extra attention.
The math involving the certainty of bank growth means betting a small fraction of Kelly, which would keep bets smaller then a full Kelly player who faces serious bank drawdowns and a much longer long run.
with tthree on this
This is gambling with a very slight edge because not many hands were played while hoping the casino gave back. Perhaps at some point play was given but comps were yanked? Cash or convertible comps would be very important. A room upgrade would not be worth the variance, subjective of course.
This is gambling with a very slight edge because not many hands were played while hoping the casino gave back. Perhaps at some point play was given but comps were yanked? Cash or convertible comps would be very important. A room upgrade would not be worth the variance, subjective of course.
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I once started with a green and ended up going 2x1500 when the count was off the charts. I'm not going to say where it was at, let's just say I ran super super good on the final few hands. I will probably never do such a thing again since I just found myself in a super good situation with very little to no heat at the end, and I'm pretty paranoid about things but when the bet started climbing up the one floor in the pit didn't seem to care because he was getting tipped huge by my degenerate friends.
Newbie spread and result
The posts in this thread r very inspiring to a mostly red chip newbie like myself. Thought I would add a novices answer...just in case there r other beginners w low BRs reading this.
I know the pros here will find this pathetic,,,,but that's ok..,most of u have read and even answered my many questions and already know that I am very new and just beginning to realize how much I still have to learn.
My top spread and results; min bet w one unit of $10....spread all the way up to 2 hands of $75! DD pitch game. Jumped up to my big max bets when the TC was > 3 Don't laugh too hard when I confess that I was pretty much holding my breath from the time I placed those big bets on the felt until I knew if I won or lost each one! This particular session was at a casino that was having a 2-1 suited BJ promo..,. I don't remember the exact amount.,.but thanks to getting more than average number of suited BJs I left with a profit of
About a thousand $$... Also got comped a couple dinners. All in all a great night in my very young career!
Someday I hope to have experiences that involve black or even purple chips to share ...but for now.....$75 x 2 with a decent promo and a positive outcome isas good as it gets for me!
Mica
The posts in this thread r very inspiring to a mostly red chip newbie like myself. Thought I would add a novices answer...just in case there r other beginners w low BRs reading this.
I know the pros here will find this pathetic,,,,but that's ok..,most of u have read and even answered my many questions and already know that I am very new and just beginning to realize how much I still have to learn.
My top spread and results; min bet w one unit of $10....spread all the way up to 2 hands of $75! DD pitch game. Jumped up to my big max bets when the TC was > 3 Don't laugh too hard when I confess that I was pretty much holding my breath from the time I placed those big bets on the felt until I knew if I won or lost each one! This particular session was at a casino that was having a 2-1 suited BJ promo..,. I don't remember the exact amount.,.but thanks to getting more than average number of suited BJs I left with a profit of
About a thousand $$... Also got comped a couple dinners. All in all a great night in my very young career!
Someday I hope to have experiences that involve black or even purple chips to share ...but for now.....$75 x 2 with a decent promo and a positive outcome isas good as it gets for me!
Mica
Normally I spread $25 to $450 on shoe game. But I carry two wallets just in case a rare and good opportunity arises. For this to happen, I must have just lost a big hand (easy for TC is high), TC spikes to +10 or above, the yellow card is about to come out and I have a pretty good day at other tables that day. Then I pretend I am super mad. Grab my wallet. Take out all my money. $1700 exactly. I know the amount because I plan it. Create a 68 to 1 spread. Actually I did this several times and won most of the times. And just once, I need to split it. I had to sell it to the dealer and pit boss that I have another $3000 money stashed at my secret pocket. For the same reason, I don't double the first hand unless it is the best double. That $3000 is for the split and double for less if I need to double my second hand.