Zen Count Vs. Hi-Opt II (No Ace Side-Count)

[iCountNTrack]

My sim had the following parameters:

Hi-Lo (Full Indices)
Full-Deck Resolution
Rounded TC (this means the player will actually be wonging out at TC <= -1.51)

The betting schedule was:

TC <= 1: 1
TC = 2: 2
TC = 3: 5
TC = 4: 8
TC = 5: 11
TC = 6: 14
TC = 7: 17
TC = 8: 20

The Rules were:

6D, S17, 3:2 BJ, No RSPA, SP to 4, .75 Pen, DAS, DOA2, LS, 1 Card to split aces, face-up, 2 players.

Results:

(1 Billion Hands)
TBA = +1.770% (absolutely huge)
but the SCORE is still only = 54.15


Let's see what happens if we let it wongout at TC = -1 (this time I will use a truncated (instead of rounded) True count so that it will not wong at TC = -.51, for example).

Results:

(1 Billion Hands)
TBA = +1.919% (astronomically huge)
but the SCORE is still only = 43.03

Very f****** strange. The TBA gets larger, but the SCORE gets lower. Perhaps, I'll have to learn how SCORE is calculated, for it is clearly not in direct proportion to TBA. My guess is that SCORE takes into account how many hands you are getting in per hour, which will obviously be less when wonging out at TC = -1.

SP

try allowing to re-enter the shoe after wonging out

 

[Southpaw]

try allowing to re-enter the shoe after wonging out

If we are setting the sim to enter at the shuffle, then what good would turning on reentry do us?

 

[Jack_Black]

If we are setting the sim to enter at the shuffle, then what good would turning on reentry do us?

I think what's going on is that your sim is wonging out when the count goes to -1 and won't re enter until the next shuffle, even if the count goes north again. You have to set the sim to allow wonging in and out of the same shoe.

 

[Southpaw]

I think what's going on is that your sim is wonging out when the count goes to -1 and won't re enter until the next shuffle, even if the count goes north again. You have to set the sim to allow wonging in and out of the same shoe.

Yes, but iCountNTrack is going to have to tell me what TC he wants the player to be entering at then (perhaps 0?). CVDATA doesn't allow you to enter at the shuffle, wong at -x and then reenter at +y.

(Actually, I could if I programmed it to wong by depth as well, but I'd need someone to recommend specific parameters).

 

[Jack_Black]

Not sure why people mostly use -1 or -2 as wong points. The SCORE increases dramatically if you only play when you have the advantage. that would be +1 for hilo and +2 for HO2 depending on the game. Don't know about Zen's advantage point.

 

[zengrifter]

The SCORE increases dramatically if you only play when you have the advantage. that would be +1 for hilo and +2 for HO2 depending on the game. Don't know about Zen's advantage point.

Same - +2 (per-deck TC). zg

 

[psyduck]

Not sure why people mostly use -1 or -2 as wong points. The SCORE increases dramatically if you only play when you have the advantage.

That depends on the way one plays. For the six deck shoe game I play, if I start after shuffle and do not re-enter the same shoe, Wonging out at TC -2 (hilo) is the optimum in terms of hourly win. The reason is if I Wong out early (say at TC -1) without re-entering, I will miss some good parts of that shoe. If one sits out when TC is <= 0 (hilo) and re-enters the same shoe when the TC is >= 1, the SCORE will be great. The only problem it will be too obvious to the casino. Sometimes it will take a long time to see positive counts especially when there are a small number of players at the table.

 

[zengrifter]

Wonging out at TC -2 (hilo) is the optimum in terms of hourly win.

Incorrect. The optimum wongout point is a function of #remaining decks, not JUST TC. zg

 

[psyduck]

Incorrect. The optimum wongout point is a function of #remaining decks, not JUST TC. zg

So exactly where to Wong out?

 

[zengrifter]

So exactly where to Wong out?

It depends, actually, on how close to shuffle point.

For example, at 1.5D remaining and a shuffle point of 1D the optimal wongout
might be 0 or even +1. To get the exact points refer for starters to BJA III. zg

 

[psyduck]

It depends, actually, on how close to shuffle point.

For example, at 1.5D remaining and a shuffle point of 1D the optimal wongout
might be 0 or even +1. To get the exact points refer for starters to BJA III. zg

I will never Wong out at TC 1, especially that deep into the shoe.

 

[zengrifter]

I will never Wong out at TC 1, especially that deep into the shoe.

Can you look it up in BJA for us? My #s above were just a guess.
The ideal exit point goes surprisingly up towards the end, which is counterintuitive. zg

 

[psyduck]

Can you look it up in BJA for us? My #s above were just a guess.
The ideal exit point goes surprisingly up towards the end, which is counterintuitive. zg

I make play decisions based on my own simulations on the game I play. I don't think any book can be more specific than that.

 

[zengrifter]

I make play decisions based on my own simulations on the game I play. I don't think any book can be more specific than that.

Its okay you missed a refinement similar to the floating-advantage.
Its the floating optimal-exit-point. zg

 

[psyduck]

Its the floating optimal-exit-point. zg

Interesting concept, but hard to determine by simulation. I've got some thinking to do regarding how to set up the simulation.

 

[zengrifter]

Interesting concept, but hard to determine by simulation. I've got some thinking to do regarding how to set up the simulation.

First look it up in BJA.
I haven't looked at it in awhile, make sure I have it right. zg

 

[psyduck]

First look it up in BJA.
I haven't looked at it in awhile, make sure I have it right. zg

The author did caution taking the extreme ends of the optimal departure points with a grain of salt. The book has charts that indicate departing a 6 deck shoe at TC 2 (hilo) right before the cut card.

Leaving a 6 deck shoe game at TC 2 when deep in the 5th deck? Are they nuts? I will never do that. Maybe you will because of your psychic power.

Reading the book confirmed my impression that simulating this problem is not an easy task. The book's author got help from multiple researchers including Jame Grosjean and Kim Lee. No wonder I still cannot come up with a setting to study this floating exit point with my commercial simulator.

 

[zengrifter]

Leaving a 6 deck shoe game at TC 2 when deep in the 5th deck? Are they nuts? I will never do that. Maybe you will because of your psychic power.

Reading the book confirmed my impression that simulating this problem is not an easy task. The book's author got help from multiple researchers including Jame Grosjean and Kim Lee. No wonder I still cannot come up with a setting to study this floating exit point with my commercial simulator.

QFIT, can you offer any guidance to the Psyduck? zg

 

[psyduck]

QFIT, can you offer any guidance to the Psyduck? zg

No thanks. I need no guidance. I use my own simulation results for my own game. I do not take what any book says at face value.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

The author did caution taking the extreme ends of the optimal departure points with a grain of salt. The book has charts that indicate departing a 6 deck shoe at TC 2 (hilo) right before the cut card.

Leaving a 6 deck shoe game at TC 2 when deep in the 5th deck? Are they nuts? I will never do that. Maybe you will because of your psychic power.

Reading the book confirmed my impression that simulating this problem is not an easy task. The book's author got help from multiple researchers including Jame Grosjean and Kim Lee. No wonder I still cannot come up with a setting to study this floating exit point with my commercial simulator.

There are a bunch of real-world considerations with this. First one is that if you find a 6D game that deals down into the sixth deck, you do not lose that seat under any circumstances! That is excellent penetration.

But let's say you are in the Utopia Casino, all 6D, all dealing down to a half deck. And an infinite number of tables. BJA is right. You are better off not playing that last hand or two and seeing what's happening at another shoe, because there are other shoes that are going up to +4 and +5 early in the shoe and you're going to have a lot of fun with it.