try and be an idiot

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Well, I guess since it's about halfway in between the high of 2 SD and 3 SD, it's be about 2.5 sd from expected.

Put another way, I think that means 98.75% of the time your results will be within +-2.5 SD.

Put another way, once in 80 times you will win more than 2.5 SD and 1 in 80 times you will lose more than 2.5 SD.

Basically, count on winning or losing more than that 1.25% of the time you play 688 hands. I think that's what it means anyway lol. Basically, I guess it's not maybe really incredibly unusual or anything like that?
there you go. i keep overlooking the idea of the likelyhood of being at some range of amount of money aspect of standard deviation and always just focus on the amount of money aspect of it. thanks for clarifying that.
Kasi said:
How lucky did it subjectively feel to you or how cursed did you subjectively feel in some of those sessions you lost alot in? Just curious lol. I always felt incredibly cursed, suspected foul play, and then I'd maybe figure out so what I suffered a 1 in 500 event. It happens. Could you do the same thing for your biggest losing session while "toeing the line".
part of how i was feeling is that feeling of dis-belief that one gets when you keep seeing the dealer win time after time virtualy regardless of how good a hand you might have. even when you know intellectually that that is just what is supposed to happen. and then when i was getting slam-dunked on so many of my big bets at dream TC's there was all these paranoid like thoughts going through my mind, like maybe counting doesn't work, maybe this whole AP thing is just a conspiracy of the casino's, or counting works but not for me cause of all the bad things i've ever done in my life. i even started to believe i may have been right when i wrote the little spoof about Norm's software code for CVBJ lol if you ever read that.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=67752&postcount=1
just what ever dismal idea popped into my head seemed to be reinforced by the way things were going down. then it's like you get this temptation feeling to steam or depart from the game plan in some way. lol all that and playing the game for not really money!
but the WISEFROG spreadsheet helped me to at least see that ok this is where i'm at on the reality scale of what can happen. and yeah maybe i'm getting pretty far out on the fringe and also knowing the ROR for this exploit is so high and that the hands to play were pretyy limited i could at least rationally think about those real apsects as opposed to the 'cursed' feelings that had no basis as far as rational thought.
conversly when i had the pretty good turn around and the bankroll started rebuilding i had opposite thougts and feelings lol. like hey now i could see how the good counts are working out as they 'should' for me. i'm thinking this standard deviation thing is flipping for me.
then i start fearing and thinking but this can all turn on a dime and i fall right back down the tubes again. lol. but again looking at WISEFROG i could see i'm again not really out of the realm that the math says can happen to me sort of thing. and i guess i understand that playing the contest as i am that the simm was set for optimal bankroll growth and i think that means pretty much like full kelly and i know that's supposed to be a real thrill rollercoaster ride.
Kasi said:
Don't break your knuckles - I prefer my friend's method who always keeps a pitching wedge nearby and just destroys furniture with it until the police come. But that was a real $11,000 that he managed to lose, he had won it on the internet over a few weeks, in 3 hours while watching the Super Bowl lol. At least it was their money :)
lol, well i was joking about the knuckles but i did slam the desk a few time. think i better hide the golf clubs. lol
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
part of how i was feeling is that feeling of dis-belief that one gets when you keep seeing the dealer win time after time virtualy regardless of how good a hand you might have. even when you know intellectually that that is just what is supposed to happen. and then when i was getting slam-dunked on so many of my big bets at dream TC's there was all these paranoid like thoughts going through my mind, like maybe counting doesn't work, maybe this whole AP thing is just a conspiracy of the casino's, or counting works but not for me cause of all the bad things i've ever done in my life.
:eek: I never dreamed anyone else ever had those paranoid thoughts! :eek:

......................................................................................AS:dog:lan
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
:eek: I never dreamed anyone else ever had those paranoid thoughts! :eek:

......................................................................................AS:dog:lan
wait a minute aslan! if you believe it and i believe it. it must be true!
 

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sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
OTOH, maybe we're both just f----- up! :laugh: :laugh: :cry: :cry: :( :( :toast:
i feel better already knowing how f(%*^ up i am. probably never have another paranoid thought again. i'm cured. maybe a little f#*% up but cured!
might even be able to play the violin again someday. :violin:
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
i feel better already knowing how f(%*^ up i am. probably never have another paranoid thought again. i'm cured. maybe a little f#*% up but cured!
might even be able to play the violin again someday. :violin:
Hey Sage, I think Aslan earned the right for a nickname. Whadaya think?
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
jack said:
Hey Sage, I think Aslan earned the right for a nickname. Whadaya think?
lol absolutely. and i think i'll bet you got one all picked out for him. lol
let the ceremony commense. pomp & circumstances.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
:eek: I never dreamed anyone else ever had those paranoid thoughts! :eek:

......................................................................................AS:dog:lan
so, ok aslan erhh if thats still your monicker lol i think jack-theghostrider-jackson is going to bestow a nickname upon you. lol
but anyway about those paranoid thoughts or whatever maybe just thoughts now that we know how f&$%ed up we are lol. but since this is the voodoo board and the topic was try and be an idiot. let me ask you. i think i remmeber you stating something like the idea that about maybe you think sometimes you just have some sort of premonition and that of course if you'd of followed it then cha-ching things would have been golden. my words but i think that's the gist. ok, well same here. maybe those are called hunchs?
but well anyway i've got another sort of like that mental musing or whatever you want to call it. the idea being i'm painfully aware or blissfully aware what ever the case may be of my emotions and perhaps more importantly my mental expectations on i guess a hand by hand basis when playing. but here is the kicker. you know in the Bible somewhere how it says God doesn't like a haughty look, doesn't like pride? i'm sure you do. but ok when i'm playing and i got these emotions and mental expectations and i get to sensing the disposition in my demeanor about maybe some hand that i think i'm gonna win to where i get this haughty disposition about it. to where i don't feel good about it and maybe i lose that hand lol (not really sure). maybe it's better for our luck to either play objectively or with a sense of mystery but hopeful expectation than to even play say if you have miserable expectations or a miserable sense of where things are going or some sort of grandoise ideation.
how's that for voodoo?
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
lol absolutely. and i think i'll bet you got one all picked out for him. lol
let the ceremony commense. pomp & circumstances.
For you consideration

http://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/and-the-worst-bad-name-is/index.html?ex=136530720

http://www.ehow.com/how_1665_name-dog.html

http://www.piratequiz.com/

(Dead link: http://www.playerappreciate.com/pimphandle.asp)

http://crime.about.com/library/blwmc.htm

http://www.kabalarians.com/index.cfm

http://www.rinkworks.com/namegen/

(Dead link: http://pages.prodigy.net/mlemus/mobnamegenerator.htm)
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
and so it goes.....

sagethepoisonousfrog*vs*jacktheghostriderjackson

Rules:6D,S17,NSA,75%pen,DAS,Lsr .36,HA

Conditions:3plyrs,1-10spread,Play-all,5,000K,BR

Submit results on these dates:

Schedule: (Start Date/4/17)

******Sage/Jack******

1.4/23:-$905/-130$

2.4/29:-$638/+35$

3.5/05:/-$1,488/+890$

4.5/11:/-$1,468/+705$

5.5/17:/-$1,752/+220$

6.5/23:/-$3,292/+195$

7.5/29:/-$3,635/+275$

8.6/04:/-$955/+580$

9.6/10:/-$2,940/+570$

10.6/16:/na/+2,275$


__________________________________________________________

played one shoe too many before i posted this lol. probably will finish up tonight if i gotta enough to make it 39 more shoes. :eek:
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
Hold on Aslan, Im trying to figure out how to use the Fantasy name Generator.:laugh:
 

jack.jackson

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
:eek: I never dreamed anyone else ever had those paranoid thoughts! :eek:

......................................................................................AS:dog:lan
If I only had a Nickel, for every time I threw my cards and said this doesnt work, Id have 15 cents.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
call for thoughts on guidelines

jack said:
Kasi&Jack vs Sage&Aslan:laugh:
speaking on that. it is getting close to maybe if we are gonna do it again to where we need to set some guidelines of some sort.
just a thought on that to where perhaps maybe we could set up some amount of money as the goal and each individual player or team or how ever it ended up using what ever way they go about it does their thing?
i dunno somethin to think about. :fish:
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
fourteen shoes to go

gotta get some z's so haven't finished up yet lol.
down -$2380 with fourteen shoes to go... circa 400 hands or so...
hopin for the flip side of some negative standard deviation. lol just to break even i guess.
 

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