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#1
November 7th, 2011, 11:49 AM
 stevo123 Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 10

I'm trying to do some calculations and figure out my expected hourly win rate. I'm going to be wonging in at any positive count and wonging out when the count goes negative. Based on the rules at the casinos I'm playing, the edge the casinos have starts at about .5%.

I figured I'd multiply my edge over the house by my bet size. And then multiply that by the number of hands I will be playing an hour. This should equal my expected hourly win rate.

But I don't know how to go about calculating my edge over the house. I know since I am only playing when I have an edge on the house it will always be a positive number. But the count while I am playing will fluctuate and will be anywhere from 0 to positive infinity (not really infinity b/c there are only so many cards and the count can only get so high but you get the picture). Additionally, I know that how many decks are left in the shoe will also change the probability of me winning a hand which complicates the matter even further. So since my advantage over the house will be changing from hand to hand I don't know how to calculate what my average edge over the house will be. Does anybody know what the exact number is, or how to calculate it?
#2
November 7th, 2011, 12:38 PM
 AussiePlayer Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 144

#3
November 7th, 2011, 03:58 PM
 sagefr0g Executive Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,200

Quote:
 Originally Posted by stevo123 I'm trying to do some calculations and figure out my expected hourly win rate. I'm going to be wonging in at any positive count and wonging out when the count goes negative. Based on the rules at the casinos I'm playing, the edge the casinos have starts at about .5%. I figured I'd multiply my edge over the house by my bet size. And then multiply that by the number of hands I will be playing an hour. This should equal my expected hourly win rate. But I don't know how to go about calculating my edge over the house. I know since I am only playing when I have an edge on the house it will always be a positive number. But the count while I am playing will fluctuate and will be anywhere from 0 to positive infinity (not really infinity b/c there are only so many cards and the count can only get so high but you get the picture). Additionally, I know that how many decks are left in the shoe will also change the probability of me winning a hand which complicates the matter even further. So since my advantage over the house will be changing from hand to hand I don't know how to calculate what my average edge over the house will be. Does anybody know what the exact number is, or how to calculate it?
i think you are wanting to calculate w/l%
ie: %Win/Loss - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet. this is how QFIT's simulator help describes expected value, errhh your edge over the house.....
how you could do it without a sim, i haven't a clue.
but if you have a sim, then you'd use the formula in the image where E39 is your average bet.
note: the cells A, B, C, D, E contain information gleaned from a simulation
so you'd take the sum of frequencies of true counts, multiply by the sum of advantage @ those true counts, multiply by the sum of units bet @ those true counts then divide by your average bet in units
your win rate per hour in units is then the product of avg bet in units times #hands played per hour times w/l%
edit: lol, but if you have a simulator then the simulator will calculate all of this for you and you wouldn't even have to do it
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that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
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#4
November 7th, 2011, 06:13 PM
 stevo123 Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 10

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sagefr0g i think you are wanting to calculate w/l% ie: %Win/Loss - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet. this is how QFIT's simulator help describes expected value, errhh your edge over the house..... how you could do it without a sim, i haven't a clue. but if you have a sim, then you'd use the formula in the image where E39 is your average bet. note: the cells A, B, C, D, E contain information gleaned from a simulation so you'd take the sum of frequencies of true counts, multiply by the sum of advantage @ those true counts, multiply by the sum of units bet @ those true counts then divide by your average bet in units your win rate per hour in units is then the product of avg bet in units times #hands played per hour times w/l% edit: lol, but if you have a simulator then the simulator will calculate all of this for you and you wouldn't even have to do it
Thanks for the info, I'm new to the game and don't know all the lingo yet hah. Any idea how I can get access to a simulator?
#5
November 7th, 2011, 07:21 PM
 sagefr0g Executive Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,200

Quote:
 Originally Posted by stevo123 Thanks for the info, I'm new to the game and don't know all the lingo yet hah. Any idea how I can get access to a simulator?
well for being new you certainly do seem knowledgeable, check this link for some info on a simulator:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/b.../software.html

edit: free one here, i don't have much experience with it:
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...mSimp_Beta.htm
.....
__________________
________________________________________

best regards,
mr fr0g MMOA honorary predator
STRENGTH - HONOR - HEART
that's my take on it your mileage may vary.
for senior citizen fuzzy count click link:
#6
November 7th, 2011, 10:04 PM
 stevo123 Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 10

Quote:
 Originally Posted by sagefr0g well for being new you certainly do seem knowledgeable, check this link for some info on a simulator: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/b.../software.html edit: free one here, i don't have much experience with it: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...mSimp_Beta.htm .....
Thank you sir. I'll take a look at those. I've heard good things about casino verite. If I can get some money together I think I'll buy that.
#7
November 8th, 2011, 07:38 AM
 Sonny Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 3,560

The book Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger also has an entire chapter full of charts that cover the most common games, bet spreads and penetration levels. It also includes bankroll requirements and game selection advice.

-Sonny-
#8
November 8th, 2011, 12:51 PM
 stevo123 Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 10

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sonny The book Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger also has an entire chapter full of charts that cover the most common games, bet spreads and penetration levels. It also includes bankroll requirements and game selection advice. -Sonny-
Cool thanks I'll take a look at that. Do you know if the charts provide ev for if you are wonging? The calculators and charts I've seen so far never provide numbers for if you are wonging.
#9
November 8th, 2011, 12:59 PM
 Sonny Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 3,560

Quote:
 Originally Posted by stevo123 Cool thanks I'll take a look at that. Do you know if the charts provide ev for if you are wonging? The calculators and charts I've seen so far never provide numbers for if you are wonging.
The book has EV information for several different types of Wonging. In the meantime you could use the spreadsheet here:

-Sonny-
#10
November 8th, 2011, 09:01 PM
 stevo123 Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 10

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sonny The book has EV information for several different types of Wonging. In the meantime you could use the spreadsheet here: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=15578& -Sonny-

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