I'm trying to do some calculations and figure out my expected hourly win rate. I'm going to be wonging in at any positive count and wonging out when the count goes negative. Based on the rules at the casinos I'm playing, the edge the casinos have starts at about .5%. I figured I'd multiply my edge over the house by my bet size. And then multiply that by the number of hands I will be playing an hour. This should equal my expected hourly win rate. But I don't know how to go about calculating my edge over the house. I know since I am only playing when I have an edge on the house it will always be a positive number. But the count while I am playing will fluctuate and will be anywhere from 0 to positive infinity (not really infinity b/c there are only so many cards and the count can only get so high but you get the picture). Additionally, I know that how many decks are left in the shoe will also change the probability of me winning a hand which complicates the matter even further. So since my advantage over the house will be changing from hand to hand I don't know how to calculate what my average edge over the house will be. Does anybody know what the exact number is, or how to calculate it?