Lucky Ladies - additional sims

for those who care i had some free time today to run Lucky Ladies sims. I realize the TCs at which this bet becomes playable are rare, but a little more information never hurt anyone...

After a quick search, I did not see sim results posted here for Hi Lo with the 8D AC payout schedule, so I'll post it below. Zen sim results will come in another thread.

Sim details:
8D with 2D cut off (75% pen), TC floored, deck estimates rounded to nearest half deck. Standard Hi Lo tags, 1 player at the table. 750 million rounds played.

AC Payouts:
1000:1 (QQ of hearts + dealer BJ)
125:1 (QQ of hearts)
19:1 (matched, exactly the same cards ie:jack clubs + jack clubs)
9:1 suited 20
4:1 any 20

you can see it becomes slightly positive EV at TC of 6, but after that the EV goes up pretty nicely.

Zen results

I've seen sim results for a slightly better payout schedule for this bet for Zen in DD games, so below are 6D results with the AC payout schedule.

Sim details:
6D with 1.5D cut off (75% pen), TC floored, deck estimates rounded to nearest half deck. Standard Zen tags, 1 player at the table. 1 billion rounds played.

AC Payouts:
1000:1 (QQ of hearts + dealer BJ)
125:1 (QQ of hearts)
19:1 (matched, exactly the same cards ie:jack clubs + jack clubs)
9:1 suited 20
4:1 any 20

you can see it becomes positive EV at TC of 11, but after that the EV goes up pretty nicely.

I've been taking Lucky Ladies to the cleaners lately - always play max bet ($25)after TC > +6. Hitting it about 40% of the time then - although I know I have been lucky. Only ever got 4-1 or 9-1 but it still rocks. My game is 6D H17 85% pen avg. Think I got the original chart from Zen here... I am particularly interested in LL as I think it's a great vulnerability at the moment when the count gets high enough. There is a casino in Canada where LL max is same as table max - $300. Was thinking of a weekend there when time permits.

Rukus--you Rule!!!

I've been trying to answer this question for over a year. I always bet $25 with a "Halves TC" of +5. Am I correct or should it be higher??? Can you help me?

If you play where the bet can exceed $25 be especially circumspect about your bet sizing - remember there is a high variance with LL. I would never bet more than 1/2Kelly (some may say that's too high for LL), unless my BR was extremely small. zg

The sim results i got didnt include the variance at the various TCs at first glance, but i should dig around and find them because as ZG mentions, that is very important when sizing bets.

Very important indeed. See http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjacksidebet1.htm

Eliot provided me the first sims and when I told him I was leery of the
potential high variance hetold me that the NO was low, "much lower than reg BJ bets."
Is that a fact, that the variance can be higher yet the NO lower?

Anyway, I was embolded and proceeded one night to drop 3k in $25
Royal20s bets (R20s was similar to LLs). zg

i assume if the EV is high enough to outweigh the added variance [N0 = (standard dev/EV)^2 ], this can be possible to have a lower N0 than regular counting BUT I highly doubt it since your hourly EV in units would be so small due to the fact that you only make the bet like 1-2 times an hour (assuming hands are dealt at rate of 100/hour).

so i actually ran the numbers for the hell of it - using zen as an example - 1.5/6D cut, betting one "unit" at the proper TC and above:

# lucky ladies sidebets made/hour (assuming dealer speed of 100 hands/hour): 1.4
gain per sidebet made: 7.57%
std dev of of one sidebet: 6.62 units
N0 (hands) = (6.62/0.0757)^2 ~ 7660 sidebets to be made.
BUT since you only make 1.4 sidebets per hour, this will take you about 5440 hours of play to reach 1N0.

so, while the N0 defined in terms of hands is smaller than that of most regular counting opportunities, the N0 in terms of real hours needed to play is significantly higher (over 5k hours!).

so ZG, as scott/p21 would say: yes and no.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: Actually we were playing R20s and basically burned it out of the few places that had it. R20 let us bet both dealer and player. No big QQh type payoff, but the match20 paid 25x, the suited20 10x, and the any20 5x. At the Ramparts (2005) neighboring SunCoast, Fitz, and Plaza, I would play the R20s, sometimes 3-hands on player and 2 on dealer. zg

i just want to thank you rukus, while i only placed one bet on this the entire 5 hours i played this weekend, i placed on on my neighbors betting circle as well, i got payed 4:1 on one, and lost the other for a net gain of 75$ whoohoo!

i also learned that im greedyand the maximum bet is 25$ :grin:

It took that long to get an LL count? zg

where's my cut of that $75 :devil: :devil: ? haha.

and yeh, one bet after 5 hours is a looong time. should probably average around 1-2 per hour.

+7 doesn't happen often in 8D shoes!

Just back from rinsing the Ladies at a casino in the West...... got a few 4-1's ... but GUTTED when someone on my table got the 125-1 for queen of hearts pair with a $1 bet - if it had been my $25 I would have got $3125! Still - I am getting closer - and satisfying to see it drop when the TC was high and thus it was more expected/probable. Kinda gives me faith in the math (after getting caned on high TC's and not winning!..... even if it didn't land to me after all.

Indeed it doesn't: http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjacksidebet1.htm

QFit, do you have any links that break down the Lucky Lucky side bet?

Sorry, never ran it.

i am very unfortunate in never being at a lucky ladies table when i see high TCs, i played a few as high as +10 , but no LL circle in sight, when i finally had one available, it was +7, one hand, then came the cut card.

about the variance issue of the 1000:1 payout, does anybody else think that the rarity of bets placed on lucky ladies coupled with the winnings you gain from all the other hands you dont place lucky ladies counts would suggest that even if you never get payed 1000:1 the winnings from all of your other hands would outweight the money you lost in the very few lucky ladies bets you made, and youd still most likely be in the positive and only have hurt your proift margins by a small percent? or maybe a lage percent? anywho i dont think its a negetive >100% percent if you catch my drift.

I personally like the idea of swinging for the fences for a 25k payout, its like playing a slot machine thats in your favor, except without the handles