I posted a brief bio in the Site Announcements forum with suggested topics. Here is some preview to foster questions and dialog.
The Myth of Professional Card Counting:
Sorry, there are essentially no full-time professional counters. There are ex-professionals who still play occasionally. Many have diversified into poker or other advantage play. Others have flexible jobs in real estate or seasonal fields. Others are retired hobbyists playing primarily for fun, not to earn money. There are full-time hole carders and other advantage players. But it is fantasy to think you could count cards based on a 35-year-old book and make a good living doing something that takes only a few weeks of practice.
Josh Axelrad exemplifies the real pro - he went in, won as much money as quickly as possible, and got barred everywhere. The idea of professional green chip players is especially silly. You make more money betting $500+ per hand for 500 hours per year than betting lesser amounts for longer hours.
The Most Common Counting Mistake (Playing while losing):
The idea is from Ian Andersen. You plan for high counts, you plan for low counts, and you may even plan for heat. But you probably forget to plan for "tilt". Losing money can be psychologically stressful and impair our judgement. When losing, players rationalize that they won't get heat. These players try to get even in the face of deteriorating conditions and increased heat. Most barrings come while losing.
The Biggest Counting Mistake (Underbetting):
Obviously the worst mistake is playing a negative game. But for positive players, the worst thing is usually underbetting. They artificially define a Kelly bankroll of, say $10K. They might win $50 per playing hour, but after transportation and scouting it is less than $25. And that doesn't even factor in expenses! If they have a bad run and lose $5K then they cut bets in half. This is crazy, considering these people may have $100K+ in home equity, cars, retirement funds, etc. They should instead declare a $100K bankroll and bet 1/10th Kelly. Then if they lose $5K they hardly need to adjust. As they get confidence in their games they can ratchet up their betting levels.
The Typical Wrong Way and the Right Way to Visit Vegas (Comp Value):
A typical novice goes without a plan. He gets a crummy cheap hotel room off-strip. Then he schleps around to random mediocre games. He gravitates to bad handheld games so he can "touch the cards" and rest his tired ass.
A prepared player plans where he intends to play. If he brings family then he stays near strip attractions. He uses LasVegasAdvisor.com to find room deals. He also reads Comp City and Jean Scott's books to get mailers. With a nice convenient room and some "paper route" planning, he can play a sequence of convenient 30-minute sessions. Because his room is more convenient, he spends more time in high-quality games, and wastes less time travelling, scouting, cashing chips, etc. At worst he will accumulate a bunch of nice buffet comps and future room comps, and may get dinners and shows. Those comps are risk-free and tax-free.
The Myth of Professional Card Counting:
Sorry, there are essentially no full-time professional counters. There are ex-professionals who still play occasionally. Many have diversified into poker or other advantage play. Others have flexible jobs in real estate or seasonal fields. Others are retired hobbyists playing primarily for fun, not to earn money. There are full-time hole carders and other advantage players. But it is fantasy to think you could count cards based on a 35-year-old book and make a good living doing something that takes only a few weeks of practice.
Josh Axelrad exemplifies the real pro - he went in, won as much money as quickly as possible, and got barred everywhere. The idea of professional green chip players is especially silly. You make more money betting $500+ per hand for 500 hours per year than betting lesser amounts for longer hours.
The Most Common Counting Mistake (Playing while losing):
The idea is from Ian Andersen. You plan for high counts, you plan for low counts, and you may even plan for heat. But you probably forget to plan for "tilt". Losing money can be psychologically stressful and impair our judgement. When losing, players rationalize that they won't get heat. These players try to get even in the face of deteriorating conditions and increased heat. Most barrings come while losing.
The Biggest Counting Mistake (Underbetting):
Obviously the worst mistake is playing a negative game. But for positive players, the worst thing is usually underbetting. They artificially define a Kelly bankroll of, say $10K. They might win $50 per playing hour, but after transportation and scouting it is less than $25. And that doesn't even factor in expenses! If they have a bad run and lose $5K then they cut bets in half. This is crazy, considering these people may have $100K+ in home equity, cars, retirement funds, etc. They should instead declare a $100K bankroll and bet 1/10th Kelly. Then if they lose $5K they hardly need to adjust. As they get confidence in their games they can ratchet up their betting levels.
The Typical Wrong Way and the Right Way to Visit Vegas (Comp Value):
A typical novice goes without a plan. He gets a crummy cheap hotel room off-strip. Then he schleps around to random mediocre games. He gravitates to bad handheld games so he can "touch the cards" and rest his tired ass.
A prepared player plans where he intends to play. If he brings family then he stays near strip attractions. He uses LasVegasAdvisor.com to find room deals. He also reads Comp City and Jean Scott's books to get mailers. With a nice convenient room and some "paper route" planning, he can play a sequence of convenient 30-minute sessions. Because his room is more convenient, he spends more time in high-quality games, and wastes less time travelling, scouting, cashing chips, etc. At worst he will accumulate a bunch of nice buffet comps and future room comps, and may get dinners and shows. Those comps are risk-free and tax-free.
