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#1
October 11th, 2011, 02:05 AM
 joeblackjack Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 21

Let's say you are flat betting 1 unit on 6 spots on the following DD game: S17, DAS, DOA. What would the average profit per round be if you could successfully cut the cards such that an Ace is in the first 14 cards after 80% of all shuffles?

I could be wrong - I haven't run the simulations - but I'm fairly certain that simply ensuring that at least 1 ace is in the first 2 cards of 1 of the 6 hands on the first round is enough to yield a significant overall advantage, even with flat betting throughout the remainder of the deck and accounting for the increased chance of dealer blackjacks.

On a side note, is it realistic to believe that shuffle tracking is accurate enough to be able to track an Ace within 14 cards?
#2
October 11th, 2011, 04:05 AM
 HockeXpert Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 246

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack Let's say you are flat betting 1 unit on 6 spots on the following DD game: S17, DAS, DOA. What would the average profit per round be if you could successfully cut the cards such that an Ace is in the first 14 cards after 80% of all shuffles?
My guess is -EV. With only one ace guaranteed in the first 14 cards, you'll have 5 hands at a disadvantage IF the dealer doesn't get the A and 6 at a disadvantage if the dealer does get the A which will occur 1 in 7 times. You're also at -EV the other 20% of the time went you CAN'T cut the A where you want it.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack I could be wrong - I haven't run the simulations - but I'm fairly certain that simply ensuring that at least 1 ace is in the first 2 cards of 1 of the 6 hands on the first round is enough to yield a significant overall advantage, even with flat betting throughout the remainder of the deck and accounting for the increased chance of dealer blackjacks.
This would be true if you can guarantee YOU get an A in the first round. The shallower the pen, the better.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack On a side note, is it realistic to believe that shuffle tracking is accurate enough to be able to track an Ace within 14 cards?
Not that I am aware of.
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#3
October 11th, 2011, 04:58 AM
 joeblackjack Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 21

Quote:
 Originally Posted by HockeXpert My guess is -EV. With only one ace guaranteed in the first 14 cards, you'll have 5 hands at a disadvantage IF the dealer doesn't get the A and 6 at a disadvantage if the dealer does get the A which will occur 1 in 7 times. You're also at -EV the other 20% of the time went you CAN'T cut the A where you want it.
Thanks for the reply. As I said I could be wrong, but I believe the advantage yielded by having a guaranteed ace be a part of any of the initial hands is so large that it would more than offset -EV on the other hands played at a slight basic strategy disadvantage. I guess maybe I should run some simulations. I was just wondering if anyone had actually already run this type of simulation and could say for certain whether it would be positive or negative EV.
#4
October 11th, 2011, 08:17 AM
 HockeXpert Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 246

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack Thanks for the reply. As I said I could be wrong, but I believe the advantage yielded by having a guaranteed ace be a part of any of the initial hands is so large that it would more than offset -EV on the other hands played at a slight basic strategy disadvantage. I guess maybe I should run some simulations. I was just wondering if anyone had actually already run this type of simulation and could say for certain whether it would be positive or negative EV.
Don't get me wrong, I like the idea and I hear you about the power of a first card A (52%) but it's all the other bets that offset that +EV. You play all the other hands at a small HE but add the loss of the A and it's greater than you think. A better betting pattern like reducing your bet or # of bets in subsequent rounds (depending on count) may make this +EV.
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#5
October 11th, 2011, 08:57 AM
 Sucker Executive Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: U.S.A. Posts: 821

Suppose you were to take 13 RANDOM cards, and add ONE ace to them. You shuffle, and deal out 6 hands (total of 7 hands, counting the dealer). Every player has approximately a 2% advantage.

Quote:
 On a side note, is it realistic to believe that shuffle tracking is accurate enough to be able to track an Ace within 14 cards?
Of course it is!
#6
October 11th, 2011, 09:16 AM
 HockeXpert Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 246

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack On a side note, is it realistic to believe that shuffle tracking is accurate enough to be able to track an Ace within 14 cards?
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Sucker Of course it is!
On a modern DD shuffle? PM welcomed!
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#7
October 11th, 2011, 03:04 PM
 joeblackjack Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 21

Quote:
 Originally Posted by HockeXpert Don't get me wrong, I like the idea and I hear you about the power of a first card A (52%) but it's all the other bets that offset that +EV. You play all the other hands at a small HE but add the loss of the A and it's greater than you think. A better betting pattern like reducing your bet or # of bets in subsequent rounds (depending on count) may make this +EV.
Yeah I'm just trying to avoid any correlation of bet to count. So an ace gives a 52% advantage. Meanwhile, all the other hands are are played at less than a 0.5% disadvantage (the particular game I mentioned is actually less than 0.3% HE overall, not accounting for the removed ace). On a DD game with good penetration, you're looking at less than 30 total player hands being dealt on average. 30*0.5%= EV of -0.15 units, and the 1 hand played with a 52% advantage = EV of +0.52 units, for a positive EV of 0.37 units for every 30 units bet (e.g., per full shuffle played through). In practice the profit would likely be higher, since my guess is that on DD most houses actually only wind up dealing somewhere in the range of 25 player hands per double deck.

Am I missing something?
#8
October 11th, 2011, 03:11 PM
 Gamblor Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Casino backroom Posts: 693

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack Yeah I'm just trying to avoid any correlation off bet to count. So an ace gives a 52% advantage. Meanwhile, all the other hands are are played at less than a 0.5% disadvantage (the particular game I mentioned is actually less than 0.3% HE overall, not accounting for the removed ace). On a DD game with good penetration, you're looking at less than 30 total player hands being dealt on average. 30*0.5%= EV of -0.15 units, and the 1 hand played with a 52% advantage = EV of +0.52 units, for a positive EV of 0.37 units for every 30 units bet (e.g., per full shuffle played through). Am I missing something?
I don't think your factoring in the possibility the dealer might catch the extra Ace, which is a powerful in their hands too. All 6 of hands is likely screwed.
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#9
October 11th, 2011, 03:16 PM
 HockeXpert Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 246

Quote:
 Originally Posted by joeblackjack Yeah I'm just trying to avoid any correlation of bet to count. So an ace gives a 52% advantage. Meanwhile, all the other hands are are played at less than a 0.5% disadvantage (the particular game I mentioned is actually less than 0.3% HE overall, not accounting for the removed ace). On a DD game with good penetration, you're looking at less than 30 total player hands being dealt on average. 30*0.5%= EV of -0.15 units, and the 1 hand played with a 52% advantage = EV of +0.52 units, for a positive EV of 0.37 units for every 30 units bet (e.g., per full shuffle played through). Am I missing something?
You're assuming that you ARE going to get the ace. The dealer will get it 1 in 7 times putting all your hands at a large disadvantage (maybe 10% off the top of my head). Stick with Sucker's 2% advantage on each hand in the first round and see if it's worth it. It sounds like he has a better method to approach this without a sim. It looks like you can achieve a very small EV if the pen's shallow.
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#10
October 12th, 2011, 03:07 AM
 joeblackjack Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 21

Quote:
 Originally Posted by HockeXpert You're assuming that you ARE going to get the ace. The dealer will get it 1 in 7 times putting all your hands at a large disadvantage (maybe 10% off the top of my head). Stick with Sucker's 2% advantage on each hand in the first round and see if it's worth it. It sounds like he has a better method to approach this without a sim. It looks like you can achieve a very small EV if the pen's shallow.
Thanks for the advice...I'll investigate further.

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