Verification needed on Wonging theory

Most of us like to watch a shoe being dealt out from the beginning, whether we are actually playing those hands or not, and as I was playing tonight I was wondering- is this really so important?

Suppose you are counting High-Low and you are walking by a 8D table with 3 decks remaining. The hand being dealt out now has 6 more low cards than high cards exposed, and +6/3 gives you a true count of +2. Now can anyone think of any reason not to sit down and play?

Cards that have been dealt out that you have not seen are exactly like cards behind the cut card- you have not and never will see them or play them. And all the high cards you are looking for might be behind the cut card- them's the breaks. So playing a shoe that has been dealt into is the same as playing a shoe with bad penetration. But if the shoe has bad penetration and a positive count- so what? You still have an advantage for whatever hands you are going to play.

So when walking around a large store looking for games to Wong in and out of, instead of waiting for shoes that are just beginning, why not just watch any game being dealt and enter when you see an advantage regardless of where they are in the shoe?

Am I overlooking anything here? Any input would be appreciated, thanks.

Alright, one I can answer (I think)

First, let me say this. I've been reading this site for a while now and I have my favorite posters to read and you are one of them Auto. That being said, I think you are wrong.

When just walking by your example table of only 3 decks out of eight being left to be dealt, you are seeing 3 decks left to be dealt for someone whose been keeping track of the count since the first hand dealt from the shoe. So, for your +6 hand that is the only one you saw, you still have to divide like you would if you just started the shoe, so 6/8 or a little less than 1 for TC.

Think of it this way, you said you are assuming those cards dealt already are just like those cards behind the cut card. That's exactly right, and they will never be dealt or counted and thus cannot be put into TC calculations just like cards behind the cut card.

Wow, it's super late and my brain isn't working great so if that was confusing sorry. Let me know what you think.

Like I said it's late

Sorry, but I just reread your post and I think you are right about the fact that sitting down at this +6 RC would be advantageous to you, you just have to realize that your TC adjustments are done like its a fresh shoe and not the discards your looking at when sitting down.

:sleepy:

i believe the problem would be you would need to divide by the unseen cards which would be 8 so that actual true would be 6/8 < 1 not much of an advantage in this case.

right i think it is an excellent tact to take. the problem is you gotta see a really large number of low cards in a few rounds or so to overcome that realtively large divisor.

best regards,
mr fr0g

My two cents, or less

I'm going to agree with sagefr0g on this one. I think the assumption with "decks remaining" is that you have seen all the cards played so far. But this is from a KO player who has never made a TC conversion in his life.

Also, it seems like some things discussed in this thread might be applicable here, but I'm not sure.

That’s a great plan. Less time spend waiting for a shuffle means more time actually counting. More time spent counting means more advantageous situations recognized. If there are no shoes near a shuffle point, go ahead and backcount a shoe that has been dealt. Just be sure to adjust your TC properly. Those eight-deckers will take a +16 RC before they start getting good.

-Sonny-

I will count a shoe if one deck or less has already been dealt. Just remember, in this case you have to count the first deck as an unseen deck.

Ah now I get it!

Right, but on the average, the running count of all cards dealt is zero (in a balanced system). So if you were to assume that the running count of the 5 decks you haven't seen is zero, in the long run, you will definitely be right. And if the average running count of the 5 decks already dealt is zero, then the average running count of the remaining 3 decks must also be zero. If the running count is zero, you can treat it like a just-beginning 3-deck shoe, thus a +6 RC (High-Low) would give you an advantage. Or maybe not!

One problem I see with this is an implication of Abdul Jalib's True Count Theorem, which I believe to be as important to BJ as the Pythagorean Theorem is to mathemetics. All kinds of neat stuff drops out of the True Count Theorem. Let's say the pit boss in an 8D pit grabs 7 decks out of each shoe in his pit, throws them in the trash and says "OK now we're playing single deck." The house edge to a BS player doesn't then become what it would be for a SD game, it remains what it was for the 8D game. Assuming there were 52 unique cards in each shoe, yes then it would be like a SD game. But it's not- an implication of the TCT is that each shoe is treated like a 1 deck segment of an 8D shoe. And just because you get a high count during a 1 deck segment of a 8D shoe doesn't mean you should start playing as if there was high count unless you are doing some shuffle tracking which tells you what the composition of that 1 deck segment was to begin with.

Which means my new idea doesn't work! Counting only works because we are highly certain that we are starting off with equal numbers of each rank of card, and even if an unequal distribution evens itself out eventually, we have to know how long "eventually" is if we are to make useful true count calculations. Thanks to all for making me think this through!

I'm glad I didn't have to tell you that, because I would have just confused myself.

For a minute I was thinking that it might still work, if as soon as you started counting midway, you still divided by the full number of decks the shoe could hold (pretending that you were starting at the beginning). However, I think even this would still lead to false information.

I believe Wong states in Professional BJ to treat a mid shoe start count as if it is fresh. There is an equal chance that as many highs have come out as lows, but of course it increases the deviation, or accuracy of the count. Since every +1 TC gives a .56 advantage with .22 deviation, it is more or less good to go at +2 TC. BUT when you come in mid shoe there is no guarantee its even, though the if you did this 1 million times, you would come in an equal amount of good and bad times. I generally try not to go in on a mid shoe positive count with FULL spread, I'll just spread more conservatively, but thats just me. This is also one of the reasons I prefer balanced to unbalanced counts.

:cow:

Probably the earliest a 8d can get to +16 is when there is only 6 decks left, 99% of the time... Then you are almost at +3 WHOO HOO

:cow: