Optimal Betting question
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FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
The Skinny on this.
Neither is correct - without relating it to the game at hand - and without clarifying whether they are talkinbg about a full bankroll or a "trip" or "session" bankroll.
I imagine that Andy is relating to he former and Semyon is relating to the latter. Of what good is 200 units in a shoe game where you are using a modest 12 to1 spread.
You bet your Max bet of 12 units. You get a pair of 8's against the dealer's 7. You split and create a hand of 11 and 10. You double them both and you now have two stiff hands. The dealer flips over a face card. You have just lost 48 of your 200 units. 24% of your 200 unit bankroll. 200 units is only acceptable if you have a time-limited session of less than an hour; and even then I would never endorse it.
Use 1,000 - 6 deck S17 game
Use 1,200 - 6 deck H17 game
Use 1,200 - 8 deck S17 game
Use 1,400 - 8 deck H17 game
These numbers are only reflective of a "reasonable" Risk of Ruin.
I believe that, under most circumstances, IF, the bet spread is
nearly optimal and play is virtually perfect, the R.O.R. will be 13.5%
If the loss of your bankroll is a frightening thought, increase the above by 100 units.
If you are prone to insomnia or have hypertension increase by 200.
If you have peptic ulcers or have panic attacks or are under psychiatric care increase by 300.
If you are a cheapskate, give up blackjack and take up scrabble, go, bridge, or chess.
If your bankroll is easily replenished or you wouldn't lose a moment's sleep if your bankroll disappears, then stick with the above.
Neither is correct - without relating it to the game at hand - and without clarifying whether they are talkinbg about a full bankroll or a "trip" or "session" bankroll.
I imagine that Andy is relating to he former and Semyon is relating to the latter. Of what good is 200 units in a shoe game where you are using a modest 12 to1 spread.
You bet your Max bet of 12 units. You get a pair of 8's against the dealer's 7. You split and create a hand of 11 and 10. You double them both and you now have two stiff hands. The dealer flips over a face card. You have just lost 48 of your 200 units. 24% of your 200 unit bankroll. 200 units is only acceptable if you have a time-limited session of less than an hour; and even then I would never endorse it.
Use 1,000 - 6 deck S17 game
Use 1,200 - 6 deck H17 game
Use 1,200 - 8 deck S17 game
Use 1,400 - 8 deck H17 game
These numbers are only reflective of a "reasonable" Risk of Ruin.
I believe that, under most circumstances, IF, the bet spread is
nearly optimal and play is virtually perfect, the R.O.R. will be 13.5%
If the loss of your bankroll is a frightening thought, increase the above by 100 units.
If you are prone to insomnia or have hypertension increase by 200.
If you have peptic ulcers or have panic attacks or are under psychiatric care increase by 300.
If you are a cheapskate, give up blackjack and take up scrabble, go, bridge, or chess.
If your bankroll is easily replenished or you wouldn't lose a moment's sleep if your bankroll disappears, then stick with the above.
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Would it be smart to have 1/1000 of your bankroll as a unit and then bet it in multiples of the betting unit according to the count while raising and lowering the betting unit as the bankroll changes and having a max bet of at least 4x the betting unit.
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
(2 Deep),
You said: "Would it be smart to have 1/1000 of your bankroll as a unit and then bet it in multiples of the betting unit according to the count while raising and lowering the betting unit as the bankroll changes and having a max bet of at least 4x the betting unit."
You mentioned a 4-1 spread. That is suicidal. It is not enough to earn any money.
You need to readjust your betting unit following big losses or cumulative small losses or wins that significantly alter your bankroll size.
Example:
You have $25,000. You play with $25 units. You play for a month and you take a beating.
Your bankroll drops to $20,000. You now adjust your bankroll to use $20 units.
You play for another month and get very lucky and your bankroll swells to $50,000. Your unit is now $50 -- although if you are concerned about your
playing longevity, it is often the wisest course to keep your bankroll at
$25,000 and invest or spend the remainder.
You said: "Would it be smart to have 1/1000 of your bankroll as a unit and then bet it in multiples of the betting unit according to the count while raising and lowering the betting unit as the bankroll changes and having a max bet of at least 4x the betting unit."
You mentioned a 4-1 spread. That is suicidal. It is not enough to earn any money.
You need to readjust your betting unit following big losses or cumulative small losses or wins that significantly alter your bankroll size.
Example:
You have $25,000. You play with $25 units. You play for a month and you take a beating.
Your bankroll drops to $20,000. You now adjust your bankroll to use $20 units.
You play for another month and get very lucky and your bankroll swells to $50,000. Your unit is now $50 -- although if you are concerned about your
playing longevity, it is often the wisest course to keep your bankroll at
$25,000 and invest or spend the remainder.
No my bad lol i meant that the max bet should be AT LEAST 4x the betting unit
and if i do all of what i said including readjusting my bankroll when needed like if i lose half my bankroll or double it or w.e would that be an effective betting strategy and have little risk?
FLASH1296
Well-Known Member
(2 deep),
You said,
" ... an effective betting strategy and have little risk?"
Re-read what I said.
Was there a mention of 13.5% ?
How do YOU define "little" ?
2.5% ? 25.0 % Somewhere between ? 13.5% perhaps ?
13.5% means that your chances of going belly-up before you
double your bankroll is worse than 1 in 7 but better than 1 in 6.
You said,
" ... an effective betting strategy and have little risk?"
Re-read what I said.
Was there a mention of 13.5% ?
How do YOU define "little" ?
2.5% ? 25.0 % Somewhere between ? 13.5% perhaps ?
13.5% means that your chances of going belly-up before you
double your bankroll is worse than 1 in 7 but better than 1 in 6.
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non-self-weighter
Well-Known Member
Hi Flash,
Can you please elaborate on the bolded?
I don't understand why it's not wise to add the money to your bankroll, use the same betting strategy, and consider it luck. Your play longevity would be longer? Know that eventually there will also be large drops in your bankroll. Wouldn't this significantly reduce ROR? Of course that's not optimal Kelly betting, which I'm not too familiar with. The player could move up as they get more confidence, and still have lower ROR. I'm a new player, so I'm just asking your opinion.
Don't APs, especially pro, have bankroll so large that their ROR is nearly 0? As you said in other post, you can't bet blacks.
OP, this seems like an oxymoron:
Can you please elaborate on the bolded?
I don't understand why it's not wise to add the money to your bankroll, use the same betting strategy, and consider it luck. Your play longevity would be longer? Know that eventually there will also be large drops in your bankroll. Wouldn't this significantly reduce ROR? Of course that's not optimal Kelly betting, which I'm not too familiar with. The player could move up as they get more confidence, and still have lower ROR. I'm a new player, so I'm just asking your opinion.
Don't APs, especially pro, have bankroll so large that their ROR is nearly 0? As you said in other post, you can't bet blacks.
OP, this seems like an oxymoron:
Why not?
When's the last time you lost 200 units in less than an hour?
It's basically impossible.
Is the reason why you would never endorse it is because the risk is too low or something?
Faith is a beautiful thing. My faith tells me all the above says is one would be palying at radically different ROR's. The best case might be 13% and I don't even consider that reasonable anyway.
Good chance none of that would bring risk down to 13% in the last 3 suggested rolls.
But, if there's maybe some chance for some reason, you might actually care a little about losing your entire roll, don't stick with the above.