QFIT
Well-Known Member
Then you disagree with 100% of statisticians and probabilists.
That is larger than the effect of Surrender for the BS player.
BlackJack Simulation Of Millions hands posted
- Thread starter bjsim
- Start date
Then you disagree with 100% of statisticians and probabilists.
That is larger than the effect of Surrender for the BS player.
results
What i meant that each simulation of 4 Million hands results at edge to the player between 0.25 to 0.38 - So the results were consist.
Bjsim admin - Ely
http://www.bjsim.com
What i meant that each simulation of 4 Million hands results at edge to the player between 0.25 to 0.38 - So the results were consist.
Bjsim admin - Ely
http://www.bjsim.com
look, you are not goign to find anyone on here who will trust a 10M round sim when they have access to 1Bn hand sims. the std error on a 10M round sim is still a significant percentage (if not greater than) the actual advantages you are trying to calculate for different strategies (be it varying BS plays or regular counting). trust us on that.
if you want to know what can happen over 100,000 hands, fine. your sims can tell you that, but it wont tell you the same thing every time you run 100,000 hands. and CVCX or CVData can do the same things (albeit not for free).
you can solve all of this negativity in this thread by 1) realizing that sims of such small number of rounds are worthless and 2) just allowing sims on your site to be run up to at least 300m hands, if not a billion. whether your web server can handle that is another matter altogether.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
if i'm understanding, say if bjsim just lets his simulator run a given number of hands, but not a statistically significant number then his results will just be a fine example of what can happen. one example of a whole range of possibilities. where as if his simulator was allowed to run for billions of hands and then a range of possibilities was culled from that data, well then we'd have some meaningful data.
edit: well i see bjsim does have a disclaimer:
Disclaimer: This is simualtion only. In real life results may Vary. Small simulations with less than 1 million hands may not represent the true statisits. The purpose of this simulation is to improve your game and not to provide a method to have edge over the casino.
QFIT, just curious, i'm interested in data such as show in the image below. which of your simulators creates data such as that? i know it says casino verite simulator v3.0, but which product is that?
:whip:Attachments
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QFIT
Well-Known Member
I don't see how it helps your game if the results are incorrect.
QFIT, just curious, i'm interested in data such as show in the image below. which of your simulators creates data such as that? i know it says casino verite simulator v3.0, but which product is that?
CVData replaced CVSim long ago. You can find a sample output of a sim I ran yesterday at http://www.qfit.com/Sample200.HTM
bjsim
Than how come the last 8 simulation of 4 millions hands each all resulted in edge of 0.25 to 0.38 to the player. Again bjsim pure focus from simulation point of view.
So far for each section that i run the deviation is minimal. Which is equal to real life in las vegas.
Their is no way to open it online to 300 Million hands without having many dedicate servers and charging $50 a month. (Which you will not pay anyway!!! and it is not the goal of Bjsim).
300 - 500 Million hands simulation are planned to be comming tward the end of the year. At this point the goal is to evaluate the rusults and finalize what kind of stats players want to see and clean any defect. (Which were not found yet).
Once it finalized the most used and common startegies will be posted with hundereds of millions .
bjsim admin Ely
http://www.bjsim.com
Than how come the last 8 simulation of 4 millions hands each all resulted in edge of 0.25 to 0.38 to the player. Again bjsim pure focus from simulation point of view.
So far for each section that i run the deviation is minimal. Which is equal to real life in las vegas.
Their is no way to open it online to 300 Million hands without having many dedicate servers and charging $50 a month. (Which you will not pay anyway!!! and it is not the goal of Bjsim).
300 - 500 Million hands simulation are planned to be comming tward the end of the year. At this point the goal is to evaluate the rusults and finalize what kind of stats players want to see and clean any defect. (Which were not found yet).
Once it finalized the most used and common startegies will be posted with hundereds of millions .
bjsim admin Ely
http://www.bjsim.com
Sure you can. I remember there was a free online sim that did exactly this - you entered in the parameters, it would put your sim in a queue, run it, and email you (or post) the results. Anyone remember this one? I don't know if it's still around.
This requires only a single server, like you already have. There is no extra bandwidth cost.
The number of rounds necessarily for simulation depends on how accurate you need to be; if you don't care much about accuracy then sure, 100m rounds might be fine. But this isn't good enough for most players seeking an advantage.
Bjsim
I am now in a shared server and not dedicated. Since i do not think i can make real money from bjsim i do not want to go into hole.
Now it takes about 15 Minutes to process 4 Million simulations with all the stats it capture. I also want to add more stats and more counting methods. Which will take even more time.
300M hands simulation will take at least 10 hours to process with all the stats captured. So it is impossible to offer it at the Open Public.
The goal of Bjsim is to improve the game of most players. (Maybe not for novice player as QFIT and other highly experienced who post here regulary).
For Most player the 4 million simulation will be good enought to improve their game and it has a lot of value for them. The people that post here maybe are the most novice and most active posting on forums. However thay probably are less than 5% of the BlackJack community.
Bjsim Admin
http://www.BJSIM.COM
I am now in a shared server and not dedicated. Since i do not think i can make real money from bjsim i do not want to go into hole.
Now it takes about 15 Minutes to process 4 Million simulations with all the stats it capture. I also want to add more stats and more counting methods. Which will take even more time.
300M hands simulation will take at least 10 hours to process with all the stats captured. So it is impossible to offer it at the Open Public.
The goal of Bjsim is to improve the game of most players. (Maybe not for novice player as QFIT and other highly experienced who post here regulary).
For Most player the 4 million simulation will be good enought to improve their game and it has a lot of value for them. The people that post here maybe are the most novice and most active posting on forums. However thay probably are less than 5% of the BlackJack community.
Bjsim Admin
http://www.BJSIM.COM
Sonny
Well-Known Member
The results are vaguely consistent but they are completely unreliable. A range of 0.25 to 0.38 is huge, especially when comparing strategy changes and rule changes that may only have a difference of 0.001 or less. You cannot expect to make accurate decisions using inaccurate numbers. If I ask someone what the EV for a certain hand is and they respond “Somewhere between 25% and 38%, but I don’t know exactly” I’m not going to trust their advice.
I’m not going to argue this point with you. Either you understand the concept of standard error or you don’t. Nobody here is going to trust a piece of software with such unreliable results. We have offered you all the advice we can give. If you aren't willing to fix the problems in your software then we don't want to hear about it.
-Sonny-
QFIT
Well-Known Member
I don't understand the question. How does this suggest anything?
That would take CVData 9 seconds on my PC.
To Sony
You do not get it. We are not speaking about 25% to 38%.
I am speaking about 0.25% (1/4 of 1 precent) to 0.38 (A little more than 1/3 of 1%)
For example Player who play 10,000 hands a year at $100 per hand with couting and adjustable bets.
Total bet will be $1,000,000
His winning expection for the whole year will be anywhere between 0.25 - 0.38 meaning $2500 to $3800.
This is what will realy happended and what will real happenend in real life.
That is laso aproxamly my betting size. That why i do not try to make BJ for living.
It take about 200 hours to play 10,000 hands , So average winning is $12.50 to $19 per hour.
On top of it you can review all the Split and stats and tune your startegy to win more.
I am sorry this are real number and have a lot of value!!!!!!
BJSIM Admin Ely
http://www.BJSIM.com
You do not get it. We are not speaking about 25% to 38%.
I am speaking about 0.25% (1/4 of 1 precent) to 0.38 (A little more than 1/3 of 1%)
For example Player who play 10,000 hands a year at $100 per hand with couting and adjustable bets.
Total bet will be $1,000,000
His winning expection for the whole year will be anywhere between 0.25 - 0.38 meaning $2500 to $3800.
This is what will realy happended and what will real happenend in real life.
That is laso aproxamly my betting size. That why i do not try to make BJ for living.
It take about 200 hours to play 10,000 hands , So average winning is $12.50 to $19 per hour.
On top of it you can review all the Split and stats and tune your startegy to win more.
I am sorry this are real number and have a lot of value!!!!!!
BJSIM Admin Ely
http://www.BJSIM.com
Sonny gets it. You do not. That error band may be acceptable for you, but it's not acceptable to anyone who takes this game seriously.
But it seems silly to run a simulator on a shared server - why on earth are you doing this? Whoever admins that box is probably going to shut you down for hogging cycles.
You should use the shared server for webhosting only, and have it link to your own PC for simulations.
But it seems silly to run a simulator on a shared server - why on earth are you doing this? Whoever admins that box is probably going to shut you down for hogging cycles.
You should use the shared server for webhosting only, and have it link to your own PC for simulations.
bjsim
The web server is much fatser tha my PC. I only run about 10 big simulaitons a day and LINK to them . I checked with GODADY ans i am ok.
I also use my own pc to post.
John, How you can have the web server run a script on my PC without converting my own PC to a public web server?
BJSIM admin
http://www.bjsim.com
The web server is much fatser tha my PC. I only run about 10 big simulaitons a day and LINK to them . I checked with GODADY ans i am ok.
I also use my own pc to post.
John, How you can have the web server run a script on my PC without converting my own PC to a public web server?
BJSIM admin
http://www.bjsim.com
QFIT
Well-Known Member
NO, NO, NO. You cannot do this with the enormous standard error you are talking about. Strategy decisions are NOT made by simulating a BJ game. Far too slow and takes tens of billions of hands for one close decision. If you change one decision and run a few million hands, how do you know if the difference is because of the strategy change or the huge standard error? There are enough bad strategies in print already.
rrwoods
Well-Known Member
... Which is HUGE.
Bjsim
Thanks,
I apprciate your opnions (Even that i do not like it!!!). It was a surprise for me after all the effort went into bjsim and after playing so much bj and winning based on bjsim. I know your guys gave me honest advise.
Again your guys are professional BJ players and mybe bjsim is not a good product for you at this time.
I still think it is a good product for average player in Vegas who usualy lose about 2%.
I will traslate bjsim to Winning/Losing per hour and leave it as is for the time being.(This is not money generating in any case and take too much time to develop).
I may look to Partner with some good statisitician and writers in the future.
QFIT , I have a good software alogorithem skills but not a good statisitics skills , What do you think the Standard error on bjsim?
bjsim admin
http://www.bjsim.com
Thanks,
I apprciate your opnions (Even that i do not like it!!!). It was a surprise for me after all the effort went into bjsim and after playing so much bj and winning based on bjsim. I know your guys gave me honest advise.
Again your guys are professional BJ players and mybe bjsim is not a good product for you at this time.
I still think it is a good product for average player in Vegas who usualy lose about 2%.
I will traslate bjsim to Winning/Losing per hour and leave it as is for the time being.(This is not money generating in any case and take too much time to develop).
I may look to Partner with some good statisitician and writers in the future.
QFIT , I have a good software alogorithem skills but not a good statisitics skills , What do you think the Standard error on bjsim?
bjsim admin
http://www.bjsim.com
It's pretty easy, the script on the server forwards the request and parameters to your PC, which then responds with the results. The protocol can be whatever you want, but http is most convenient.
(Note that this does NOT make your home PC a public web server; you just configure it only to respond to sim requests from your server and nothing else.)
Someone did this before, I can't remember the site.
bjsim future
Thanks,
I will figure out how to do it later.
So to answer your concerns regarding BJSIM here is what I can do:
1) Allow user to post their own strategy and vote on other strategy (Creating strategy will be limited to few a month per user). Allowing user to post short desc and short recommendations.
2) allow each new strategy to start with 4-10 Million hands.
3) allow the same strategy to run over and over. Keep the last 10 execution and totals all execution to master count .
This way each strategy can get up to 1 Billion hands within some time.
And you can see the variation by keeping the last 10 big run.
4) Each month delete the lowest voted strategy and run extra tens of millions hands for the strategy that are highest voted.
5) Allow searching strategy by Winning percentage or winning by hour.
6) Add STD deviation and error rate.
I will be out of the country for few months and will start the changes only on the fall. This will be a big change that will take couple of weeks.
Please let me know if you have any suggestions or concern
bjsim admin
http://www.bjsim.com
Thanks,
I will figure out how to do it later.
So to answer your concerns regarding BJSIM here is what I can do:
1) Allow user to post their own strategy and vote on other strategy (Creating strategy will be limited to few a month per user). Allowing user to post short desc and short recommendations.
2) allow each new strategy to start with 4-10 Million hands.
3) allow the same strategy to run over and over. Keep the last 10 execution and totals all execution to master count .
This way each strategy can get up to 1 Billion hands within some time.
And you can see the variation by keeping the last 10 big run.
4) Each month delete the lowest voted strategy and run extra tens of millions hands for the strategy that are highest voted.
5) Allow searching strategy by Winning percentage or winning by hour.
6) Add STD deviation and error rate.
I will be out of the country for few months and will start the changes only on the fall. This will be a big change that will take couple of weeks.
Please let me know if you have any suggestions or concern
bjsim admin
http://www.bjsim.com
QFIT
Well-Known Member
Arrrrrgh. "Voting" on math. I have no adjectives for this concept.