Hit and run with oscars grind

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1357111317 said:
Just a question, do you expect to continue making money at OG if you keep playing for 1 year? 5 years? 20 years?
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If I can win 80 percent of the time then I would be very happy. I'm not going to win every time I walk into the casino. Card Counters don't win every time either. OG is a very powerful weapon and has been working very well for me. I will post this weeks results at the end of the week. Today was a rough day at the casino but I still turned a 192 profit. Not a lot but I didn't lose. I will post the results of the week on Fri. or Sat.

I've read on this site that the only way to beat the casinos at BJ is to count cards. Although card counting has been proven to be a winner. OG is another winning way to beat the casinos at BJ.
 
ok I could win probably 95% of the time playing basic stratagy but that doesnt mean i have an advantage over the casino does it?

I mean that if you continue playing that will you still be up money OVERALL using your OG for 5,10,20 years?
 
1357111317 said:
ok I could win probably 95% of the time playing basic stratagy but that doesnt mean i have an advantage over the casino does it?

I mean that if you continue playing that will you still be up money OVERALL using your OG for 5,10,20 years?
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Yes I totally believe I will!

You need to keep in mind that I can leave a bad table at anytime just like a card counter. I can stop the grind and start all over during play if the bets get to high. OG allows the player to win even though he loses more hands and that itself is very powerful.

Hey im not knocking card counting because its a proven winner. However, OG has made it a lot easier for me to win money at BJ. Know what I have been doing is using the red 7 count along with my OG to help me predict when to leave a bad table which gives me even more of an advantage.
 
1357111317 said:
ok I could win probably 95% of the time playing basic stratagy but that doesnt mean i have an advantage over the casino does it?

I mean that if you continue playing that will you still be up money OVERALL using your OG for 5,10,20 years?
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You also must define advantage over the casinos. A player that plays BS isn't going to win 95 percent of the time. If this were to happen then that particular player does have an advantage.
 
Win 95% of my sessions I mean. You said you win 80% of your sessions. That is what you are talking about. What I am talking about if you add up all your wins and losses over a lifetime will you be up money by using oscars grind.
 
1357111317 said:
Win 95% of my sessions I mean. You said you win 80% of your sessions. That is what you are talking about. What I am talking about if you add up all your wins and losses over a lifetime will you be up money by using oscars grind.
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If the game of BJ stays the same (rules) then I believe I will be up money. However, this question can't be factually answered until I stop playing BJ. I may quit playing BJ next month, 5, 10, 20 years from now. Until I stop playing BJ this question can't be factually answered.
 
It can actually. All you are doing is placing a series of bets. Each bet is indiviudal from all the other bets and has no effect on the other bets and the other bets have no effect on it. Each of these bets is placed at a negative expectation.

What you are doing is similar to this. A friend offers you a game where he flips a perfectly random coin where if the coin lands on heads you get 101 cents for every dollar you bet and if the coin lands on tails you get 99 cents for every dollar you bet. Here is the catch. You are only ever allowed to bet tails. You can change you bets all you want but in the end, you will lose money. The reason why card counting works and all betting systems don't? Betting systems can only pick tails, Card counters can pick heads.
 
1357111317 said:
It can actually. All you are doing is placing a series of bets. Each bet is indiviudal from all the other bets and has no effect on the other bets and the other bets have no effect on it. Each of these bets is placed at a negative expectation.

What you are doing is similar to this. A friend offers you a game where he flips a perfectly random coin where if the coin lands on heads you get 101 cents for every dollar you bet and if the coin lands on tails you get 99 cents for every dollar you bet. Here is the catch. You are only ever allowed to bet tails. You can change you bets all you want but in the end, you will lose money. The reason why card counting works and all betting systems don't? Betting systems can only pick tails, Card counters can pick heads.
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The card counter is betting bigger when he has the advantage and betting smaller when he doesn't. OG allows the player to win bigger bets than he loses.

I will agree that just about all the betting systems invented are garbage. However, oscars grind isn't one of them. Hell even Arnold Snyder said oscars grind had some amazing computer sim results.

I will continue to use OG along with my red 7 count and try and win cash every time I walk into the casino. If I find that I can't win money using OG then I will stop using it. However, my results have been pretty good so far.
 
chitown said:
I will agree that just about all the betting systems invented are garbage. However, oscars grind isn't one of them. Hell even Arnold Snyder said oscars grind had some amazing computer sim results.
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Apparently you missed some of the most important lines of Snyder’s article:

“If you use this type of betting system, and you look over your records after years of play, you’ll see a whole lot of small wins—and one (or a few) big losses, big enough to wipe out the profits from all of your small wins, and then some. (Mustn’t forget that house edge!)”

“So, should we all start using Oscar’s system? One word of caution: Watch out for that one losing series. How much does Oscar lose when his system fails on that one unlucky series out of 5,000?
About $13,000.
…So, if you try Oscar’s system, you still have to be prepared to lose.”

“No betting system will ever overcome the house edge in the long run.”

Oscar’s Grind will not give you an advantage in the long run. It may help you to win more sessions, but the few losing sessions will drag you back into the red. You should still expect to lose money using this system. In fact, you should expect to lose more money because you are raising your bets when the house still has the edge.

There’s nothing wrong with using a progression system but you have to have realistic expectations about it. You are still gambling without an advantage so you must accept the fact that you will lose money. You will be able to win a lot of your sessions but you should not expect to make a profit since the house still has the edge. A progression system might help you to postpone the inevitable for a while, but you will lose if you continue to play. I'm not trying to discourage you from using Oscar's Grind, but you need to know that it is not a profitable way to play.

-Sonny-
 
I'm not trying to discourage you from using Oscar's Grind, but you need to know that it is not a profitable way to play.
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I'm going to discourage it, and state further that if you expect OG or any other progression system to make you money, you're a fool.

If you must play without an advantage, sick to basic strategy, play slowly, and always at the table minimum. Your real goal can only ever be to minimize losses, and will never be to maximize profit. Anything else is pure delusion.
 
1357111317 said:
It can actually. All you are doing is placing a series of bets. Each bet is indiviudal from all the other bets and has no effect on the other bets and the other bets have no effect on it. Each of these bets is placed at a negative expectation.

.........
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just i think i'd say circa 30% at an advantage and circa 70% at a disadvantage if we only knew it but if we don't know what or when it's only prudent to assume each bet is placed at a negative expectation.:confused::whip:

so but what i find interesting about the OP was how Chitown writes about how it isn't really all that difficult to make three units. i mean, yeah even though like you and most everyone knows you can't expect to beat the house edge using just some betting technique with no knowledge of when you have an advantage and when you are at a disadvantage, even so it's still a fact that if one sets out to say just win one unit that it is quite remarkable how easy that is to do the vast majority of the time.

and no argument here, that it is just as remarkable how easy it can be to lose a sh!t ton of units just trying to win one unit. lol.:eek::cry::whip:

a few nights back in the chat room ExhibitCAA posed a problem (sorry i can't remember the specifics) about two players, one player just betting a certain way with no knowledge of the advantage and the other player betting
according to knowledge of the advantage that had some degree of uncertainty involved. it turned out the player using the uncertain knowledge had quite a bit of ground to make up relative to the steady betting player who had no knowledge of the advantage.
 
Sage, I can't bring myself to post the TCP example in this thread. It doesn't really apply, and this thread is so disgusting that I now have to buy a new laptop after puking over my keyboard.

Sonny, I think you are going overboard trying to be Switzerland here. WHY NOT discourage chitown from using OG (Oscar's Garbage)? It is an idiot's system, and the guy is going to lose money, WHEN A WINNING ALTERNATIVE IS READILY AVAILABLE!! If he does manage to win, it will be because he learns to apply the betting progression only during positive counts according to Red 7, in which case he is playing a positive-expectation game. But perhaps you know that there is no hope for this guy, so who really cares?

chitown, how could the system possibly "work best" for 10.00 units, and not higher? The betting system doesn't know the value of the chips! If it works at $10 unit, scale it up to a $50 unit and play at Horseshoe Hammond (which has higher limits to accommodate your system)! And, if it is a simple winning system, quit your job! If you manage to pay all your bills for the next decade using winnings from your system, I will be most impressed.
 
Sonny said:
Apparently you missed some of the most important lines of Snyder’s article:

“If you use this type of betting system, and you look over your records after years of play, you’ll see a whole lot of small wins—and one (or a few) big losses, big enough to wipe out the profits from all of your small wins, and then some. (Mustn’t forget that house edge!)”

“So, should we all start using Oscar’s system? One word of caution: Watch out for that one losing series. How much does Oscar lose when his system fails on that one unlucky series out of 5,000?
About $13,000.
…So, if you try Oscar’s system, you still have to be prepared to lose.”

“No betting system will ever overcome the house edge in the long run.”

Oscar’s Grind will not give you an advantage in the long run. It may help you to win more sessions, but the few losing sessions will drag you back into the red. You should still expect to lose money using this system. In fact, you should expect to lose more money because you are raising your bets when the house still has the edge.

There’s nothing wrong with using a progression system but you have to have realistic expectations about it. You are still gambling without an advantage so you must accept the fact that you will lose money. You will be able to win a lot of your sessions but you should not expect to make a profit since the house still has the edge. A progression system might help you to postpone the inevitable for a while, but you will lose if you continue to play. I'm not trying to discourage you from using Oscar's Grind, but you need to know that it is not a profitable way to play.

-Sonny-
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Sonny, i've lost money while counting cards when the shoe was positive. I have won money card counting when the house had the advantage.

I will continue to use the grind because its working very well. if I find that I cant make money using it then I will stop.
 
ExhibitCAA said:
Sage, I can't bring myself to post the TCP example in this thread. It doesn't really apply, and this thread is so disgusting that I now have to buy a new laptop after puking over my keyboard.

Sonny, I think you are going overboard trying to be Switzerland here. WHY NOT discourage chitown from using OG (Oscar's Garbage)? It is an idiot's system, and the guy is going to lose money, WHEN A WINNING ALTERNATIVE IS READILY AVAILABLE!! If he does manage to win, it will be because he learns to apply the betting progression only during positive counts according to Red 7, in which case he is playing a positive-expectation game. But perhaps you know that there is no hope for this guy, so who really cares?

chitown, how could the system possibly "work best" for 10.00 units, and not higher? The betting system doesn't know the value of the chips! If it works at $10 unit, scale it up to a $50 unit and play at Horseshoe Hammond (which has higher limits to accommodate your system)! And, if it is a simple winning system, quit your job! If you manage to pay all your bills for the next decade using winnings from your system, I will be most impressed.
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I decided to use 10 dollar betting units because I don't want to bet 200 hundred per hand. So the 10 dollar betting units allow me to work the system better.

I have a question for you guys. Does a card counter always win when he has the advantage? Does a card counter always lose when the house has the advantage?

First, off the job comment is not appropriate. Even if I was the best card counter in the world I would not quit my good paying job. I play BJ because I enjoy the game and I make money playing.

Second, I also enjoy counting cards but have made more money using OG.
 
johndoe said:
I'm going to discourage it, and state further that if you expect OG or any other progression system to make you money, you're a fool.

If you must play without an advantage, sick to basic strategy, play slowly, and always at the table minimum. Your real goal can only ever be to minimize losses, and will never be to maximize profit. Anything else is pure delusion.
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I must be doing something wrong using OG because I made some pretty good money last week using it.
 
Ignore these "people"

chitown

Keep the posts coming!! And ignore these people!! let them go back to there precious "card-counting"!!

I like OG...and got very..VERY FRUSTRATED WITH CARD COUNTING!!

I use a 4 stage..modified D'alembert..but like your method better!! So far..65 winning sessions..but 5 big losers..but total $$ won..far outweigh the $$ lost!!

keep the posts coming!! There are people here benefiting from your posts!!

RISJR
 
chitowns insistance that his OG experiment is going so well, when we all know what the long term outcome will be, reminds me of the old joke about the construction worker that fell off the roof of 12 story building. Half way down a co-worker asks how's he's doing to which he reply's "so far, so good". :laugh:
 
sagefr0g said:
just i think i'd say circa 30% at an advantage and circa 70% at a disadvantage if we only knew it but if we don't know what or when it's only prudent to assume each bet is placed at a negative expectation.:confused::whip:

so but what i find interesting about the OP was how Chitown writes about how it isn't really all that difficult to make three units. i mean, yeah even though like you and most everyone knows you can't expect to beat the house edge using just some betting technique with no knowledge of when you have an advantage and when you are at a disadvantage, even so it's still a fact that if one sets out to say just win one unit that it is quite remarkable how easy that is to do the vast majority of the time.

and no argument here, that it is just as remarkable how easy it can be to lose a sh!t ton of units just trying to win one unit. lol.:eek::cry::whip:

a few nights back in the chat room ExhibitCAA posed a problem (sorry i can't remember the specifics) about two players, one player just betting a certain way with no knowledge of the advantage and the other player betting
according to knowledge of the advantage that had some degree of uncertainty involved. it turned out the player using the uncertain knowledge had quite a bit of ground to make up relative to the steady betting player who had no knowledge of the advantage.
Click to expand...


Your post reply pretty much sums up my point. I chose to use win and loss limits at the table to help myself win. I understand that even using OG I could still get smoked at the table. In fact, I have got smoked at the table using it. I also have started using the red 7 count to help prevent an ass kicking at the table. I have increased my BU to 6 per table but if I find that 6 is harder to achieve then I will go back down to 3. The poster is also correct in saying that sometimes the player can lose a crap load of units trying to make just 1. The game of BJ is fun though.
 
RISJR said:
chitown

Keep the posts coming!! And ignore these people!! let them go back to there precious "card-counting"!!

I like OG...and got very..VERY FRUSTRATED WITH CARD COUNTING!!

I use a 4 stage..modified D'alembert..but like your method better!! So far..65 winning sessions..but 5 big losers..but total $$ won..far outweigh the $$ lost!!

keep the posts coming!! There are people here benefiting from your posts!!

RISJR
Click to expand...

I like OG because you can win money even when the house wins more hands. That's why I started using it. I also feel that winning just a few betting units per table plays to my advantage. I will post this weeks results on Friday or Sat. I wont be going back to work until late Sept. so I should be able to put in many hours at the casino from now until then. It's been fun so far and have some interesting stories for this weeks results.

Thanks for your reply.
 
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