BillytheBJkid
Well-Known Member
Are any of you guys professional blackjack players that do this for a living? How much money can you make counting cards a year? How much did you make when you first started out?
Counting cards for a living
- Thread starter BillytheBJkid
- Start date
Several people here are professional players, yes. But I would recommend changing your tone and being much more polite if you would like them to take the time to respond to your questions.
(Re: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=150418 )
(Re: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=150418 )
BillytheBJkid
Well-Known Member
(Re: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=150418 what tone? I dont understand. i am just asking questions? Somebody said this board was suppossed to be helpful.
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After laughing at some of the posts and remarks you've made in your short time here, I think you should look into starting over.
Hi.... Welcome to Ken's BJinfo site.
There are many Pro players that frequent here and believe it or not, they are extremely helpful. They made a living at a very tough PROFESSION, much of which you will not learn in any book. So you come here to pick their brain and see what tidbits of info their willing to offer free of charge.
And many times only tidbits of their secrets they may spoon out, are held close to their chests. Don't expect to receive them.
IF you have read just the one book you keep refering to, PBJaaB, then you have a lot.... I mean A LOT... more reading and studying to do.
Just to answer you question, How much money can you make counting cards a year, in a simple one line..... the way your going about it.... Zero.
Just to give you an example:
In a year and a half's time I've read 40+ books, read probably every single post/thread/archive on here, BJ21, bjmath, and a few others, use on a regular basis many of qfits programs, practiced for hours per day for months straight before laying down a single bet. Counted down 100's of decks... and still learning new things to add to my arsenal of weapons to take on a very strong opponent.
Be prepared for a ride because if you think its going to be a slow and steady rise upward... your going to be surely let down. Don't forget to keep good records because you will trick yourself into believing your doing good but in reality your walking a fine line.
In 4 months you'll be up 600 units and then the BJ gods turn the tables on you while you watch in horror as your giving 550 units back on the worst string of losing sessions you could imagine. Welcome to the game, and if you thinks this doesn't happen because you see in a book that the win rate should be "X".... be prepared when "X" doesn't show up for the show.
So how much can you make in a year?
First, here's some questions for you to ponder: How much can you bet? How much time do you have to play?
Here's a simple answer...
If your only counting cards,
if you play perfectly
and your playing 6.5/8d game
with decent rules
in uncrowded conditions
with a 1-12 or 1-16 bet spread
and Wong out at -2
expect to win 2-4x your unit per hour. $5 min bet = $10-$20/ hr
MCdonalds pays $8-10 hr with no risk.
find a better game and the win rate goes up....
learn better ways to beat the game and you may win even more.
are you beginning to see the picture clearer?
IF your a $25 player expect about $50-$100/hr... is that good enough for you yet?
so you work 40hrs and always win .. thats $2,000-$4,000/ week
think you can do that... always win?
No sarcasm here, just the plain facts, and I can become a sarcastic prick very quickly.
BJC
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Sonny
Well-Known Member
The sticky thread at the top of this forum called My Final Conclusion on Card Counting should answer most of your questions. While you're at it, check out the Frequently Asked Questions and Free Counting Resources threads as well. They will answer a lot of the questions you asked in other threads.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
moo321
Well-Known Member
Learn poker too.
kewljason
Well-Known Member
Professional blackjack players. That definition was recently being discussed in a different thread. http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=15487
How much money can you make counting cards a year? Way too many variables to just throw a numerical answer out. I know thats what you were looking for. Lets just say that realistically it a lot less than you are hoping for.
First started out? My first 2 years, I made less than 20K per year, playing with a $10 unit. Last year, my fifth year, I made just under $40K, playing with a $15-$25 unit. This year, my first full year with $25 unit, I am up just over 40K at the moment (down from 48K three months ago) so have no idea where I will end up.
I share these numbers with you, just to emphasize how difficult it is to make any real money counting. Admittedly, I am probably the lowest stakes counter making a living solely by blackjack. Of course with a larger betting unit supported by larger bankroll, earings can be significantly higher.
You should be commended for your honesty and per serverance. You've chosen a tough Profession to be self employed in. I wish you only the best.
Now if you were my kid, after four years of college, and earning only 40k after five years of field experience.... I'd be over there kicking your ass until you couldn't sit in that semi circle you love to be in.
Of course you didn't add the free food and entertainment.... nor did you say anything about where your expenses come from.
BJC
kewljason
Well-Known Member
Well, I was unable to attend college. 40K is actually about double what I was making at the job I quite 5 and a half years ago.
However, I didn't post looking for either a pat on the back or kick in the ass. lol I was trying to impress on the poster that its difficult to make any real money counting, unless maybe you have a six figure BR.
StandardDeviant
Well-Known Member
You can expect to make about 0.02 units per hand or about 2 to 4 units per hour with a standard deviation of about 10-15 units per hour. But the answer really depends on a number of factors, and you need to understand these factors.
Get a sim (I recommend CVCX for this), play with it for a few hours and you'll learn a ton that is hard to get from any book
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StandardDeviant
Well-Known Member
I like to think of myself as a professional player who works at a job for a living (for now). :grin:
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
kewl, was this part of your post a bit of a miss-statement?
reason i ask, as a pro isn't part of what you do is make it your business to have an idea with in some reasonable range of where you will end up?
kewljason
Well-Known Member
Of course there is a "reasonable range", but it's a pretty wide range at this point. A 3 month period is very short term, and we all know that almost anything can happen short term. Case in point, my last 3 months, I've lost 8 grand as I stated, the 3 months prior to that I won 32K. Therefore I don't think it an unreasonable statement to say, I have no idea what the remaining three months of the year will bring.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
would three months be about 48,000 hands assuming playing eight hours five days a week sort of thing?
just for discussion say it's that, and i think you play eight deck games or did you move out west? i'm forgetting
with a off the cuff spread ramp one to ten spread i get results like the image below:
(caution these are wildly estimated figures, for example the game i used for this allows late surrender)
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kewljason
Well-Known Member
would three months be about 48,000 hands assuming playing eight hours five days a week sort of thing?
just for discussion say it's that, and i think you play eight deck games or did you move out west? i'm forgetting
with a off the cuff spread ramp one to ten spread i get results like the image below:
(caution these are wildly estimated figures, for example the game i used for this allows late surrender)
Let me start off by saying I dont put much stock in simulation results for short term predictions. Also I have been playing a variety of games. You are correct in that most of my play is 6 and 8 deck, S17, AC games dealt to 80% as I seek out games with better rules and penetration. Also have been playing a bit more at Foxwood which of course includes surrender. I have a 12 day trip to vegas coming up next month, in which I will be playing some double deck, and possibly an addition trip before the end of the year in decemeber, so I'm not sure your one size fits all simulation works all that well for me.
Your estimate number of hands is pretty close, although I arrive at the number differently. I've been averaging 31 hours per week, and now that it's less crowded, I'm getting more heads up play and play with 1 other person, bumping my hands per hour above 100. With 15 weeks remaining in the year, I get 46,500, so as I said pretty close.
Not sure how you figured my playing style, but here it is. I spread 1-12, max betting by TC of +3, Not playing TC of -1 or less.
So all things said, I don't know how close your numbers actually are, but lets go with your numbers anyway. Since each of my last two 3-month cycles have finished in the 2 standard diviation range away from EV, one negative and one positive, it's safe to say there is a pretty wide range of what to expect for the last quarter, which is precisely what I meant when I said "I have no idea where I will end up". So no, I don't feel that was a mis-statement.
I'm not sure where all this is going as we seemed to have gotten off track. The whole point of posting my numbers in answer to Billythekid's inquiry was to impress that there is not a whole lot of money to be made counting cards at the level he is playing (red) or even at the next level up that I am playing (green).
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sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
ok then i guess you didn't miss-speak.
so i guess you make longer range summations of your future prospects than three months, sort of thing?
but certainly you don't wait longer than three months to evaluate your live play results with respect to what's expected, no?
sorry if i got the thread off track, i know i have a bad habit of that.:eyepatch::whip:
kewljason
Well-Known Member
ok then i guess you didn't miss-speak.
so i guess you make longer range summations of your future prospects than three months, sort of thing?
but certainly you don't wait longer than three months to evaluate your live play results with respect to what's expected, no?
sorry if i got the thread off track, i know i have a bad habit of that.:eyepatch::whip:
well thats kewl, frog, some threads need a new direction. :laugh:
I don't really break it down like that. just keep track by the year. Don't even know why I start over each year??
Most of my years the results have been very similar, just the unit size has increased. I've been very lucky in that I haven't had great fluxuation. This is actually the longest "bad" period I have ever had, but the first half of year was better than expected, so it all evens out. I just worry about playing the best game I can find to the best of my ability. I have a very general idea about what the Ev should be, but I just don't worry about being above or below expectation that much. I guess if I have a year that ends way below EV, I'll worry and try to figure out why? I know you math guys aren't going to approve of that approach.
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