plan of attack

M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
My BR is 2000 units. The game is DAS, DOA, S17, 6 deck. I use hi low. Is a 1-10 spread, jumping to 5 units early (on TC approx +2, usually RC 8+ early) w/ max bet of 10 units. Is this spread aggressive enough to turn a profit? What is my ROR?
 
Meistro, if you don't know whether the game you described is profitable, may I suggest that you spend a bit more time researching the game before you head to the casinos. You'll be much more comfortable with the ebb and flow of the game if you are armed with the extra information.

Sure, that's not as exciting as just heading off to burn the tables, but when you find yourself down (perhaps) 100 units after a few hours of play, you'll better understand what's happening and why.
 
What and where do you suggest I research? I am working on index plays at the moment, in particular insurance. Is the right TC for insurance +4? I was lying in bed thinking about this last night. 9-4 is the ratio of non ten's to tens, so you would think a TC of +4 would be perfect for insurance (since there are 4 suits of every card, if you knock off four non tens for every deck you have the right insurance decision, but my count has aces as +1, so this would seem to be inaccurate). Anyway I am all for preparation! I lost 200 units today (at a number of points I was betting 75 units a hand (3 * table max), which is obv. a pretty bad idea). I was down much worse at one point - probably 300-500 units, luckily I had a pretty monster hand with 5 * table max on the table (3 hands + splitting and resplitting seven's against a 3 (or was it 3's against a seven?)) and took that down. As bad as all that may sound I am up 1000+ units in the past couple weeks, and looking to change to a much lower variance strategy and cement the win.
 
You are obviously thinking a lot about the game, which is good. You can find a lot of info here on this site and also at www.qfit.com. Check out the book Modern Blackjack which is available free online, courtesy of the author.

You might also get these books: Professional Blackjack, and Blackjack Attack. The tables therein will give you most of the data you will need to understand your advantage and RoR under various situations.

My personal favorite is the CVCX program that is available from QFIT. With this program you can see EV, RoR, SCORE and other parameters. You can also see the effect of different rule changes, penetrations, etc. on your results. The program costs money, but if you really want to get a feel for the game, give it a try.
 
Meistro said:
Is the right TC for insurance +4? I was lying in bed thinking about this last night. 9-4 is the ratio of non ten's to tens, so you would think a TC of +4 would be perfect for insurance (since there are 4 suits of every card, if you knock off four non tens for every deck you have the right insurance decision, but my count has aces as +1, so this would seem to be inaccurate).
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TC for insurance depends on the number of decks in play. According to Professional Blackjack, the TC is +3 for shoe games.
 
Meistro said:
...at a number of points I was betting 75 units a hand (3 * table max), which is obv. a pretty bad idea...
Click to expand...

I didn't have time to look up the RoR (as I am headed off to the casino), but 75 units per hand with a 2000 unit BR would seem like a disaster in the making. The question would be which will happen first: (a) you run out of money, or (b) your spread identifies you as a counter and you are run out of the casino.
 
There is no betting strategy you can use that will “cement the win.” You’ve been watching too many movies. A card counter is going to lose often and sometimes very heavily. You need to understand the risks you are taking with your money. There is a lot more to learn before you should expect to make a profit. Stop playing right away. Right now you are just gambling and you have been very lucky so far. Don’t spread to the table max without knowing what the correct insurance index is. Don’t bet another dollar until you know if you have an advantage or not and you know how much risk you are taking. Stop blindly throwing around multiple table max bets until you understand how to create a strong bet spread and how to manage your bankroll. Read through all of the sticky threads in this forum. Read a few good books. Read everything on Arnold Snyders website too. Stop throwing your money away.

-Sonny-
 
Meistro said:
What and where do you suggest I research? I am working on index plays at the moment, in particular insurance. Is the right TC for insurance +4? I was lying in bed thinking about this last night. 9-4 is the ratio of non ten's to tens, so you would think a TC of +4 would be perfect for insurance (since there are 4 suits of every card, if you knock off four non tens for every deck you have the right insurance decision, but my count has aces as +1, so this would seem to be inaccurate). Anyway I am all for preparation! I lost 200 units today (at a number of points I was betting 75 units a hand (3 * table max), which is obv. a pretty bad idea). I was down much worse at one point - probably 300-500 units, luckily I had a pretty monster hand with 5 * table max on the table (3 hands + splitting and resplitting seven's against a 3 (or was it 3's against a seven?)) and took that down. As bad as all that may sound I am up 1000+ units in the past couple weeks, and looking to change to a much lower variance strategy and cement the win.
Click to expand...

Stop playing immediately.
 
I am very confused! :confused: (granted this is not a great accomplishment on your part)

You started this thread off with your plan of attack using a 1-10 spread with a 2000 unit BR which sounded pretty reasonable. 4 hour later you are posting about playing a max bet of 3 hands of 25 units. :confused: Where did this come from? You are lucky you are only down 200 units!!

Each week we get several new guys, which is great but, you guys all seem to want to run before you walk. Please take Sonny's advise and use the resources they have provided here and and the other sites, like qfit.com with the free Modern Blackjack on line book. There is so much valuable info that you is available to you. Learn all you can before you leap.
 
Expected value does not mean guaranteed value

Sonny said:
There is no betting strategy you can use that will “cement the win.”
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You are soooo correct!!!

Expected value does not mean guaranteed value -- even in the much-sought-after long run. So few people seem to understand that.
 
Meistro,

You have received truly EXCELLENT advice. PRICELESS is more like it.

Are you mature and smart enough to realize the value ?

You are, like most youth, headstrong.

You can just (figuratively) nod your head and keep on playing BJ and suffer the consequences.

You are a "babe in the woods" - a l o o o n g way from being sufficiently knowledgeable and competent to be putting your money at risk.

If you choose to "gamble" that will be your (self-destructive) choice.

If you choose to devote the time and energy needed to become a proficient Card Counter that would be the wiser course.

It will require a serious attitude, (marked by patience and discipline on your part), to succeed.

Aces & Faces to ya'
 
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