Poker Diary ;tldr

[fubster]

1-2 being the lowest stake, we expect to have a strong win rate for a player that actually knows how to play. I would expect around 10 bb/100 hands, even more. I am unsure about the exact number, but I would say that an hour of play at a live table plays at around 30 hands/hr. This puts his EV around 4500. With an actual wr of 2000, this isn't hugely far from ev.

From my memory, I believe I read that playing 20k hands (which is about how many he played) has a standard error of around 1 bb/100. However, including things like toking, he may not be terribly far from being a decent player. But then again, maybe he's not as good as he thinks (why is he playing 1-2 as a "pro"?)

Pretty spot on post here. He's probably not quite a 10ptbb/100 player. Tokes and the rake will absolutely slaughter your winrate.

 

[matt21]

1-2 being the lowest stake, we expect to have a strong win rate for a player that actually knows how to play. I would expect around 10 bb/100 hands, even more. I am unsure about the exact number, but I would say that an hour of play at a live table plays at around 30 hands/hr. This puts his EV around 4500. With an actual wr of 2000, this isn't hugely far from ev.

From my memory, I believe I read that playing 20k hands (which is about how many he played) has a standard error of around 1 bb/100. However, including things like toking, he may not be terribly far from being a decent player. But then again, maybe he's not as good as he thinks (why is he playing 1-2 as a "pro"?)

hey sleight - thanks for your comments here. appreciated.
in terms of why he is playing only 1-2 - basically i because i rolled him five thousand rather than fifty thousand i guess :laugh:

 

[1357111317]

hey sleight - thanks for your comments here. appreciated.
in terms of why he is playing only 1-2 - basically i because i rolled him five thousand rather than fifty thousand i guess :laugh:

Honestly i think that you could make 25-40 bucks an hour at 1/2 depending on the buyins. If you can buy in deep at 1/2, and seat select very well (always get position on the deepest stacks) you can do well. I have taken down some 500bb plus pots at 1/2 and havent lost any of those big pots yet. These huge pots have a huge impact on your winrate. For example someone stacking off with A9 on AKQ99 vs my KK for a 1.5k pot has a huge positive impact on my winrate.

 

[Deathclutch]

Any updates Sleight? Interested in reading.

 

[1357111317]

Honestly i think that you could make 25-40 bucks an hour at 1/2 depending on the buyins. If you can buy in deep at 1/2, and seat select very well (always get position on the deepest stacks) you can do well. I have taken down some 500bb plus pots at 1/2 and havent lost any of those big pots yet. These huge pots have a huge impact on your winrate. For example someone stacking off with A9 on AKQ99 vs my KK for a 1.5k pot has a huge positive impact on my winrate.

Sorry i should have changed that post, They stacked off with A7 there and not A9. Stacking off with A9 is pretty standard there for 1/2. A7 is a horrible horrible horrible horrible spew.

 

[moo321]

Honestly i think that you could make 25-40 bucks an hour at 1/2 depending on the buyins. If you can buy in deep at 1/2, and seat select very well (always get position on the deepest stacks) you can do well. I have taken down some 500bb plus pots at 1/2 and havent lost any of those big pots yet. These huge pots have a huge impact on your winrate. For example someone stacking off with A9 on AKQ99 vs my KK for a 1.5k pot has a huge positive impact on my winrate.

I think it would be possible for a good player in a good game to make that. The last period I took records I averaged a little over $50 an hour for 50 hours in a very live 1-3 game. Sample size is too small to say for sure, but I think I could probably keep a winrate close to that in a very good game.

 

[moo321]

Sorry i should have changed that post, They stacked off with A7 there and not A9. Stacking off with A9 is pretty standard there for 1/2. A7 is a horrible horrible horrible horrible spew.

Yeah, if you have guys who can't play a deep stack, it can really massively improve your winrate. The guy who will stack off for 3 buy-ins with top pair top kicker on the flop is worth a lot of money to you.

 

[moo321]

Pretty spot on post here. He's probably not quite a 10ptbb/100 player. Tokes and the rake will absolutely slaughter your winrate.

I would have asked about the tokes. If he was giving anything more than a buck a pot, it could have absolutely killed him. A $15/hr player who occasionally tokes a red will kill himself over the long run.