Can someone help me with a betting strategy?

S

sduderstadt

New Member
I believe in pyramiding and using the house's money against itself. My problem lies in determining how much to lose back to them before I figure I have hit my zenith.

For example, if I take a starting stake of $500 and run it up to $3600, how much should I be willing to lose back before I call it a day? In the example I am citing, I have gone all the way back down to as low as $2400 and gotten it back up as high as @ $3000, but I can't seem to get it back up to $3000+, let alone $3600 or beyond.

Any hard and fast rules?
 
It doesn't work in the long run.

This site teaches you how to count cards, which will actually win money in the long run.
 
Maybe I did not word this the best way and...

I'm really not asking about betting strategies, so:

1) forget about pyramiding.
2) assume I am talking about just one sitting, not over a period of time.

The situation is:

I start with $500, which is what I am willing to comfortably lose. I run it up to $3600, which means I am now playing with $3100 of the casino's money. In subsequent play, I go back down to $2400, which means I still have $1900of the casino's money, which is fourfold more than what I started with.

In subsequent play, I get my overall money up to $3000, but I can never get it back up to the $3600 range. My question is, is there a limit to how much of the casino's money should I be willing to lose back in a quest to boost my overall winnings before calling it a night?
 
If you're not counting or using some AP method of playing, then you should quit right away since you're playing every hand with a disadvantage.
 
If you did manage to turn $500 into $3600 do this:

Learn how to count cards
Then be an advantage player

$3600 is a good bankroll to bet the minimum and spread to $50-100. Then you will continue to keep the casino's money in the long run.
 
I won't try and convince you to count cards, so hopefully this answer will suffice:

You are never playing with "the house's money."

If you're playing a game with a -0.5% edge, you expect to lose money in the long run. However, gamblers must occasionally win, and they do—sometimes to the tune of $3100 more than their original stake. Now, the fact that you won $3100 is not important because your original $500 is not "safe." A common flaw in logic tells you that since you're above your original $500, everything else is immaterial; this is incorrect because you'll very frequently lose that $500, or you'll lose some of it and not be able to recover enough to even break even before the session is over.

The $3100 you won is not the "house's money"—it's the money that you'll eventually lose on subsequent trips. Any money you win is your money, and if you're not playing with an advantage, you'll most likely eventually lose it all in the end. If you're a casual player that maybe plays a few times a year for fun, then it doesn't matter so much, but don't think that your strategy will help you to come out a winner in the end.

The reason you're not getting a direct answer to your question is because it's not answerable: there's no "correct" amount to stop after losing because every hand played without an advantage is played with a disadvantage. I hope this helps to clarify that.
 
No, it doesn't help and...

I disagree that the question is unanswerable. I am not talking about the long run. I am talking about that session and what is a reasonable stopping point.

Nevermind.
 
Think about what you're asking for a second. A reasonable stop loss point when you're ahead. That's impossible to answer the way you wish it to be answered because there's no telling how low the dips will be and 2. you haven't told us how much you're betting a hand on average. I hate to be the one to tell you this but you're a PLOPPY. You're looking for an enabler on this site who is going to make you feel ok with your style of playing but really the fact that you're searching for these such answers show that you're already at serious risk for gambling addiction. I strongly suggest you quit now while ahead. Even if you do use a stop loss, the vast majority of gamblers will not adhere to it. Trust me on this. I see it all the time in casinos where big winners give every penny back and more despite them saying they're going to quit at x point or y point. My advice to you is spend the time to learn how to play basic strategy perfectly and count. It'll then allow you to play BJ to your heart's content and not be a loser over time. Int he meantime, you can use the money you won for other purposes that will make you feel just as good and which you will actually have something to show for.
 
sduderstadt said:
I disagree that the question is unanswerable. I am not talking about the long run. I am talking about that session and what is a reasonable stopping point.

Nevermind.
Click to expand...
Define "reasonable." You have a negative money expectation, so at what point does stopping become "reasonable?" I'm not talking about the long run, either. You're a statistical favorite to lose money every time you place a wager. It doesn't matter at what point you start or stop, how long or short your session is, or anything else for that matter. What's a "reasonable" stopping point? Can you predict the future? If not, then surely any sane person would agree that the question is unanswerable in the way that you're expecting. Sorry if that seems rude, but that's the way it is.

If you'd prefer an arbitrary number instead, the answer is $1250.
 
You don't knowing a ****ing thing about how I play...

and you don't know anything about how much I've won overall or how much in one sitting. BTW, it was @$13,000.

I ask a straighforward question and you guys choose to answer a completely different question. How do you know I am not an advantage player?

Would you agree that playing by a system is better than playing by no system in various aspects of the game? If you guys need more information to answer the question, that's one thing and I'd be glad to provide it.

But, I have a hard time believing that anyone here does not set some sort of limit about what they're willing to lose before they sit down. Similarly, given the swings back and forth due to the multiple factors at work (conditional probability), I have a similarly hard time believing that no one has developed a rule of thumb regarding when to call it a day beyond fatigue, etc.

What I have done until now is to informally rake chips from what I have on the table, with the idea I will not dig back into my pocket, but I have no particular system and I suspect I have been too conservative in my approach.

You guys can call me a "ploppy" all you want. I'm sorry I even asked the question.
 
If you want to direct your anger at other posters for calling you a "ploppy" and trying to convince you to count cards, go for it, but spare me the trouble. I'm trying to explain to you why your question can not be answered in a logical way. I don't care if you're an advantage player, an average civilian, or a system player. I also don't care how much you've won or lost. The problem is that your question is straightforward, but the answer is not.

Straightforward question: If I have x amount of money and I win y amount, how much of y should I be willing to lose before calling it quits?

Sounds like a simple question, right? Well, it's not! And the reason it's not is what I've been trying to explain, and what you've chosen to react negatively to each time. Unless I misunderstand the question, you seem to be asking the optimal point at which to stop playing in order to maximize the "profit" that you somehow expect. I will attempt to give you the straightforward answer that you're looking for if this is, in fact, your question:

1. Are you an advantage player? Do you have a statistical edge over the house? If so, the answer is that you should never stop playing unless the game conditions change, rendering your advantage to a less desirable, or nil, amount; if you're receiving heat or attention that may threaten your longevity; if you're too fatigued to maintain the edge that you're playing with; if your bankroll has taken such a hit so as to either require smaller wagers to stay within an acceptable amount of risk or put your in an emotional state that compromises your edge; etc.

2. Are you playing without a statistical advantage? This includes non-composition-dependent betting strategies, hunch players, random gamblers, and the like. If this is the case, the optimal stopping point would be the point immediately before you sit down at a table game and give a dealer money. I'm not being a smart-ass here, but it's a simple fact. I know you fall into this category because you're asking about how long you should play with the "house's money," when in fact, there is no such thing. Any money you win is yours, and any money lost is now theirs. If I'm wrong and you're playing with an edge, then it doesn't matter when you need to stop, you'll still be making money.

I was playing a game yesterday that involved betting two hands of one unit each. After a long and painful stretch of having my ass handed to me repeatedly, a situation occurred that caused me to have all of my remaining session bankroll on the felt at once, totaling four units. I had a positive expectation on the outcome of all four wagers, but should I have stopped before that? Of course not, because it was optimal to continue betting as long as I had the edge. If instead of being down to my last four units, I was instead up 40 units, should I be concerned with a stopping point?

I know it's unlikely that you'll find this reply useful or helpful, but I hope that you'll eventually realize that I'm answering your question exactly and as in-depth as you're likely to get. Whether or not you choose to try and understand what I'm saying is your choice.
 
Actually, you have been helpful...

it was the others I was losing patience with. Sorry if I accidentally directed it at you.

I'd love to continue this conversation, but I just discovered that a troubled friend has been diagnosed with Alzheimer's at an early age and has been missing for close to two months.

Thanks for your help and I look forward to talking again. I apologize.
 
sduderstadt said:
it was the others I was losing patience with. Sorry if I accidentally directed it at you.

I'd love to continue this conversation, but I just discovered that a troubled friend has been diagnosed with Alzheimer's at an early age and has been missing for close to two months.

Thanks for your help and I look forward to talking again. I apologize.
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear of this. :sad: Have they found your friend yet?
 
sduderstadt said:
I believe in pyramiding and using the house's money against itself. My problem lies in determining how much to lose back to them before I figure I have hit my zenith.

For example, if I take a starting stake of $500 and run it up to $3600, how much should I be willing to lose back before I call it a day? In the example I am citing, I have gone all the way back down to as low as $2400 and gotten it back up as high as @ $3000, but I can't seem to get it back up to $3000+, let alone $3600 or beyond.

Any hard and fast rules?
Click to expand...
I invested $500 in the stock market. After 1 day I turned my investment into $3600. The next day it was down to $2400. The next day it was up to $3000. I wasn't satisfied with only getting a 600% return on my money so I invested the rest of my life savings in the stock market. This was circa August 2008. The rest is history...as is most of my life savings.

Lesson: You're playing at a disadvantage. Even if you were playing at a slight advantage you'd be very lucky to produce such results in such a short period of time. Either quit while you are ahead or learn to play with an advantage, but don't expect to keep getting so lucky. You should be happy and satisfied that you've done so well using "the casino's money". There is no formula for getting incredibly lucky and you can't parlay your luck into even greater luck.
 
Hi, Sdudrstadt.
I understand your confusion and sense of helplessness, been there as well,
I play with CSM's here and have to play against the general thinking that pervades most blackjack players, that in the long run you will always lose, and that the only way to play is to count cards, but I am sorry to say that I do not agree with either of these views.
I play with a positive progression, that is in Walter Thomasons' 21st Century Blackjack Book.
The betting formular is, 10.15.20.25. Increasing each win by 50% and continue with the $25 until you lose and then revert back to $10, and start the process over. This has also been criticized by many,even though it works.
When you have started the winning process you are playing with house money,(in my opinion ) although this is not what most folks will agree with either;
I play this system with CSM's and perfect strategy by Fred Renzey, and I make a small income from this without any drama, do not get to greedy, learn to accept small constants amounts, and if you get a lot then you should be thankfull, and leave, with the winnings, makes you feel good;
Elkobar..
 
Hi Sduderstadt;
Just a short addition to my last opinion, as the other folk have mentioned it is not possible to have a rigid set of rules to determine when to quite, because there are to many variables and changes that can effect your outcome.
My end of play is always determined by losing 4 hands in a row, at which point I believe that the cards are going against me, but of course the next set of hands could be in my favour, so I have to wear that as my choice, but if I am not stopped out by 4 losses then I just keep playing, it may be not considered correct by most folk, but I find it keeps my game under my control.
Thanks.
Elkobar..
 
elkobar said:
Hi, Sdudrstadt.
I understand your confusion and sense of helplessness, been there as well,
I play with CSM's here and have to play against the general thinking that pervades most blackjack players, that in the long run you will always lose, and that the only way to play is to count cards, but I am sorry to say that I do not agree with either of these views.
I play with a positive progression, that is in Walter Thomasons' 21st Century Blackjack Book.
The betting formular is, 10.15.20.25. Increasing each win by 50% and continue with the $25 until you lose and then revert back to $10, and start the process over. This has also been criticized by many,even though it works.
When you have started the winning process you are playing with house money,(in my opinion ) although this is not what most folks will agree with either;
I play this system with CSM's and perfect strategy by Fred Renzey, and I make a small income from this without any drama, do not get to greedy, learn to accept small constants amounts, and if you get a lot then you should be thankfull, and leave, with the winnings, makes you feel good;
Elkobar..
Click to expand...

That can't possibly "work"! You may be ahead so far, but only because you've been lucky. Such progressions are nothing but a recipe for disaster. You can't possibly know which hands are going to win and which hands are going to lose. If you risk 50% more than your last win there's a good chance you're going to be giving back everything you just won + 50%, or even more if you get hit with split and double down situations. If you were to do this only during positive countsyou may get a slight advantage and it could even be good for cover, but it probably wouldn't be enough of a spread.
 
Hi 21 Gun Salute.
thanks for reply, yes I understand that I cannot know whether the next hand will be a winner or loser, but card counting is not 100% accurate either, some times you lose on positive count and sometimes you win on a negative count, the observation is that you get runs of positive hands as well as negative, Progression assumes that these "runs" can be of benefit, when they occur, and you are just riding the wave as it were, sometimes they work and sometimes they dont, what can I say, it is gambling;
And yes I do admit that double downs and splits are either the down fall, or the winners for me, but as you know the cards fall where they may, and this is what makes the game interesting, sometimes we depend to much on presumed mathematical precision,something that the cards are not aware of ;
Thanks.
Elkobar..
 
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