1) If you have the cut then there are 2 choices - cut the bottom card out
of play or cut it into play. Cutting it out of play is easy to figure. Cutting
it into play depends upon the proficiency of the person doing the cutting.
2) If bottom card is a low card
a) If it is cut out of play then player's EV=EV(full shoe)+EOR(bottom card)
(EOR stands for effect of removal). Low card out of play=+EV, OK choice
b) If card is cut into play then you'd probably want to make it dealer's
up card.
If you are 100% successful in making it dealer's up card then EV is
known by combinatorial analysis.
c) If you are less than 100% successful in cutting it to dealer's up card
i) Dealer's up card will be conditional probability of not being the
bottom card when unsuccessful, which will increase house edge.
ii) Depending upon where player is sitting his probability of having the
bottom card in his hand needs to be considered.
iii) EV depends upon proficiency of cutter
3) If bottom card is a high card
a) If it is cut out of play then player's EV=EV(full shoe)+EOR(bottom card)
(EOR = effect of removal). High card out of play=-EV, poor choice
b) If card is cut into play then you'd probably want it your hand.
If you are 100% successful in steering it to your hand then EV is known
by combinatorial analysis.
c) If you are less than 100% successful in steering it to your hand
i) Player's hand EV will need to be conditioned on the bottom card not
being in his hand when unsuccessful. This will worsen player's EV.
ii) Depending upon where player is sitting the probability of dealer
having the bottom card as up card needs to be considered.
iii) EV depends upon proficiency of cutter
