Probability of Winning a Hand of Blackjack?
- Thread starter mikeS
- Start date
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
far as winning, losing or pushing a hand the probability won't be much different if you are counting or just using basic strategy.
the win, loss & push probability may be a bit skewed because of different rules and number of decks.
below is an image that is an example of how it goes for the game described on a percentage basis, sorta thing:
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Forgive me if I'm missing something -- but the right-hand side of that chart looks a little suspicious to me. If you were winning 41.2% of the time and getting blackjack 4.0% of the time (which is essentially a 6.0% in terms of payout), that would give you an advantage of 47.2% to 46.7% over the house on negative count hands. Somehow, I don't think that's the case, or the casinos would be out of business pretty quickly. Am I mixed up, or is that an unscientific chart?
Sonny
Well-Known Member
You can't really scale it up to 6% in this case because the average bet is not 1 unit. Those hands that get won and lost will be, on average, more than 1 unit because of doubles and splits.
-Sonny-
Well, I guess that's where I was mixed up, then.
I would think, though, that when you double or split, it's when you have the advantage according to basic strategy, so you should theoretically win more of those hands than normal. Unless that's also accounted for in the chart.
But... yeah. Either way it doesn't substitute for the 6-8x bet that you would make on a plus count.