Question on a (potential) good game I stumbled across

R

rumandcoke

New Member
I recently stumbled across a game and am looking for feedback on a few things from the more seasoned players. I have been learning a ton from this site and my game has improved dramatically. I play BS at a 99%+ level and have been using the Hi-Lo system for counting, but haven't done too many games where I spread and play the count as an AP should/could.

The game is a S17, DAS, Double on any 2 cards, split up to 4 times, 4 deck shoe with consistent 70%+ penetration, no surrender, no peek/no hole game. The dealers can be a little on the slower side and very minimal pit heat. The table minimum is $5 and the max is $1000.

According to the casino posting, as well as basic strategy charts online, the dealer edge for this game is about .51%, which is much lower than the normal games I play on vegas (.65ish%).

Here is my question, with my current experience level, should/could I take advantage of this game for a weekend? I will be visiting the area again in about a month and could practice a ton to get any better and memorize all the index plays. I have about $5000 in my current bank roll, which is replenishing, so I could lose all of it and my day to day life wouldn't be affected.

I would need to make at least $1500 in order to be considered successful...can anyone chime in and come up with my risk of ruin and/or suggestions on this?

Thanks in advance.
 
Umm, I don't think .51% is right, I think it's a little lower than that. Anyways, if you want to have a $5k trip bankroll that you don't care about losing, I'd back-count it, using a $25 unit, spreading 1-8, hitting 8 units at maybe +6.
 
rumandcoke said:
The game is a S17, DAS, Double on any 2 cards, split up to 4 times, 4 deck shoe with consistent 70%+ penetration, no surrender, no peek/no hole game. The dealers can be a little on the slower side and very minimal pit heat. The table minimum is $5 and the max is $1000.
Click to expand...
What is the %pene? Always give the pene! zg
 
in a weekend you'll probably play 15 hours? If you spread 50-600 and play all(with bathroom wonging) you'll prob easily have an expected value above $100/hr. 100*15=$1500. I imagine your result however is more likely to be going busto or even doubling your roll than to end up winning between 1-2k.

100 min bets is plenty for a session roll but short for a trip roll. If your there Friday eve thru Sunday afternoon you should back count Friday with a smaller spread as moon suggested for 5hrs (but $50 min). If you start sliding early reduce ur min bet to the suggested $25 but increase your spread (1-16) and playall/wong rather than $50 back counting. Anytime ur above 5k go $50-600PA/W, hopefully that's what you Saturday(playing ~8hrs) looks like. If on Sunday (playing ~2hrs) you are up any ammount try spreading 1-16 or $100min back counting.

This schedule is somewhat natural and might be what you (and maybe even ploppies) woulda stumbled into on your own. playing a bit more conservatively at the beginning or if you hit a downswing and play more agressively toward the end or as you win a little. This strategy assumes u don't care if u go broke during the trip but doing so early would be frustrating and on Sunday would be trivial. Try to spend as much of your time as you can doing $50playall, mixing in 25-40% back counting at the beginning of sessions and when its easy to do w/o looking obvious. I never play red chip games though so maybe u actually can get away with back counting the entire time.
 
Is this game far away from you or is it close to home? This sounds like the game you can milk for a long time if you're a local, so you wouldn't want to take $100/hour for just a weekend and get backed off when you could take maybe $50/hour for months. Bets over $500 attract extra attention.
 
alwayssplitaces said:
Is this game far away from you or is it close to home? This sounds like the game you can milk for a long time if you're a local, so you wouldn't want to take $100/hour for just a weekend and get backed off when you could take maybe $50/hour for months. Bets over $500 attract extra attention.
Click to expand...

It isn't someplace that is easily accessible. I stumbled across it while visiting my girlfriend and am happening to go back to visit her again this Spring before she moves closer. Even if I go back to the area, which is a possibility, it wouldn't be more than once a year. So I'm not too worried about getting alot of attention...as long as I can last there a weekend.

I appreciate all the advice and suggestions. I'm going to keep practicing and see what I can do when I go back.
 
bet hi-lo

2hands of (True count-1)x unit

if 5k is your total bank, unit=10$,
If 5k is your trip bank, unit=25$.. You will lose bank one out of 5 times..
 
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