Lately I have just come off a decent run of good luck or good variance if you will. I have read many times about bad variance that can wipe you out, I know using 1/2 kelly makes your chances low. I have had 3 losing sessions in a row losing 28 units, 6 units, and 26 units, Just wondering whats the longest losing streak anyone from this excelent forum has had? I never overbet, use 1/2 kelly, Hi Low and for these last 3 sessions I have been delt stiff after stiff or the only player at the table busting time after time then the dealer busts.I'm not complaining, I Knew all along this was coming due to the fact I have been at least double my hourly EV.
Bad variance
- Thread starter Tom007
- Start date
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Perhaps these will make you feel better:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2689
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2643
-Sonny-
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2689
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=2643
-Sonny-
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
hey Tom, i just came off a losing session last night :cry: ..... 40 units .
it bugs me pretty bad every time i have a losing session. it's the wrong emotional response because really one should take the long term view as opposed to the short term view. my long term perspective from a historical point of view has been fantastic
..... 29 losing sessions, 163 winning sessions. during part of my first advantage playing efforts i was pretty darn sloppy but still came out winner because of mostly luck. my entire history of play (including those slop play periods) i have averaged 31.78 units lost for the losing sessions and 13.74 units won for the winning sessions. when i look at only my knuckle down play it right advantage play sessions i have averaged 24.76 units lost for the losing sessions and 16.05 units won for the winning sessions. thats for 20 losing sessions and 67 winning sessions.before last night i was at my all time high of 619.4 units won on my overall play(the play where i've strictly applied advantage play). i've never had more than two losing sessions in a row. uh 1,372 units up for all play (sloppy play included plus strictly applied advantage play)
well really this is all pretty much meaningless though. reason being is one never knows how many winning sessions or losing sessions one is going to have in a row. the real point is that over time your units won should ever drift (albeit randomly like a drunk staggering home) upward.
let me tell the story of my 40 unit loss that occured last night. i normally only play an hour or so if i'm having a winning session. (that's just how i do it as i like to savor the good vibes i get outa winning in the short term). then if i haven't at least won my expected winrate for about an hours play i just keep playing come hell or highwater until i've either exceeded my winrate or lost my trip bankroll. well anyway here is what happended last night. during less than my first hour of play i won about five units. i was getting snappers like crazy and having a lot of unexpected winning hands. just luck. the true count never got juicy. well when an hour had went by i was still clinging to that five units won but i didn't feel all that buzzed by having accumulated five units. so i continued to play. it wasn't but what seemed like a blink of ones eye and i found myself down ten units. i'm going to say some things that i thought and did that i know are wrong but i want to say it cause maybe someone will learn something and it will help me to mentaly sort out my errors. so anyway i continued to play. the table wasn't to crowded so that was good. i was wonging out when i should but no decent true counts were presenting. my units were going up and down keeping me overall near that ten unit loss point. then the table got crowded. i stayed longer at that table than i should have as there was another table with only two players. i also didn't wong out as much as i should have. my units continue to drop. no decent true count presents. i finally wong out and go to a table that is not so crowded. the true count goes negative there. i once again fail to wong out. the units continue to drop. i continue play and no decent true count presents. i again fail to wong out. i say goodbye to more units. again i finally wong out and find a one on one table. problem is no decent true count. again i hang in playing and doing so results in the units dropping even more. i also notice that i'm kind of mentaly fuzzy and just don't feel right about how i'm maintaining the count. but i'm desperately determined to play until i find a decent count. and then one finally presents, problem now is in that fuzzy mental state i'm not sure of the precise true count so i bet up into it conservatively and win some units. but now i'm even more unsure of the count so i drop my bets a bit. so the night goes on and i never again see a decent true count. so what i surmise from my recollections of last night is just how damaging those little indiscresions one makes in ones play can be.
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sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
you had the opportunity to raise your bets thirty times in a single days play?
how many hours of play was that Ort? was that single deck or double deck?i'm lucky if i get to raise my bets once or twice in an hours play. i play six deckers.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
I can top that. How about 140 units lost...
...on one trip?
...in one session?
...in one shoe?
No, in one hand! Max bet, splits, doubles, and dealer catches a 21.
EasyRhino
Well-Known Member
Split to four hands, double each, that means that big bet would have been 17.5 units...
What kind of spread were you working with?
Automatic Monkey
Banned
1-20. I got down 7 big bets; one hand I didn't get to double, fortunately.
you had the opportunity to raise your bets thirty times in a single days play?
i'm lucky if i get to raise my bets once or twice in an hours play. i play six deckers.
Hmm you should be getting around ten raised bets a hour or more. At least that is my own guess. More for double deck and single I bet Im playing 30 raised bets a hour or more in most dd games.
If you play 100 hands/hr your one raised bet has to overcome the %loss of those 99 losing bets or else you are playing a losing game.
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
well i don't know for sure my guess-tamate is i might average three bet ups an hour over the long haul. now for those bet up situations i might get to continue raising my bets about two times or so before the count drops. talkin six deck here.