Poker or BlackJack?

bigplayer said:
Poker and low stakes blackjack compliment each other very nicely as part of a combined business plan. You can hit a shoe or a few shuffles of double deck on the way into the casino...go to the poker room and play for 4 or 5 hours and then hit another shoe or few shuffles of double deck on the way out.

The Variance is a good bit lower at Poker and you can control it by your chosen style of play (tight aggressive versus loose aggressive or small stack versus big stack). The hourly rate at poker is low compared to higher stakes blackjack but you can play a lot of hours at poker and never have to worry about a backoff. Using some very aggressive hit and run blackjack mixed with poker can boost your daily EV total a good bit. Blackjack variance is not to be underestimated...if bankroll swings are a real concern then you are betting too big. I know a lot of players who might play a few shuffles of double deck before going to the poker room, or who check out the sports book for any opportunities on the way to the poker room. All of that EV adds up and the more +EV things you can do the more you can make. Poker/Blackjack/SportsBetting/Coupon Hustling, etc are all very complimentary of each other.
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Put it this way... BJ is probably better if you're a green chip bettor or higher as very very few people in AC at least imo, have the skill to win greater than $25/hr on average as that means being able to win at 2/5 NL or higher.
 
Availability of Games?

It seems poker has a high game selection importance. With bj you can find a playable game about 24/7 within an hours drive? of probably most of the US population excluding Boston and NY?

What about online vs brick and mortar poker? Online poker would be a strong game compared to bj because of lack of expenses and availability.
 
blackjack avenger said:
What about online vs brick and mortar poker? Online poker would be a strong game compared to bj because of lack of expenses and availability.
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Online poker is a complete different game. With online poker you have far more tools available than in room games. And I don't mean exact EV calculations in a split second, but also hand histories of your opponents!
 
Man VS Machine?

MangoJ said:
Online poker is a complete different game. With online poker you have far more tools available than in room games. And I don't mean exact EV calculations in a split second, but also hand histories of your opponents!
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Does that make online poker easier or harder then brick and mortar? One also faces perhaps more cheating online?
 
UK-21 said:
My experience over 5,000 hands is completely to the contrary.
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Sorry to hear you are running bad.

It sucks especially when it never seems to end.:mad: I have had some breakeven 20000 hand stretches and it is soul destroying. Sometimes they can last for weeks.

Today for example lost 3 buy-ins in 15 mins. My AA cracked versus and the best- a two outer beating my two pair on the river.

Why does it always happen on the damn river!!!!!!!!!!!!

Needless to say no more poker today.;)
 
blackjack avenger said:
Does that make online poker easier or harder then brick and mortar? One also faces perhaps more cheating online?
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It`s debatable.
There are definitely more suckouts online due to the fact that players draw more to hands than live. Plus you play many more hands- so variance is increased.
There is also definitely cheating online- players colluding, bot programs, multiple accounts and God only knows how many superusers.

I tend to play small/ micro stakes and doubt there are any superusers there, but there are a lot of bots( easy to play against), and lots of donks that make unbelieveable hero calls and get rewarded for it. It`s not rigged, but sometimes it easy to think so especially if you are on a losing streak.

I just play for rakeback and rakeraces and that brings some extra pounds in.

The thing that gets to me is that online poker sites know there is cheating go on- but only investigate when players complain.
But I guess thats a whole new topic:laugh:
 
blackjack avenger said:
Does that make online poker easier or harder then brick and mortar? One also faces perhaps more cheating online?
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I have almost zero experience with Poker games (just online play money games). But hand histories are collected by the official software. Not using that information (i.e for hand ranges, bluff hands, lifetime efficiency) is clearly a disadvantage. I would not call it cheating when you use your personal records for that kind of stuff.

However there are whole websites selling those hand histories, and they are still in business for a reason.

Just make an experiment: Open a online cash game (i.e. with free play bonus money), observe a table with half of their seats available. In the minute you join that table, I guarantee you that table will get crowded. The reason: player without statistics available = high probability of being a fish.

I bet there are tools available scanning a lot of online tables looking for players with weak/no playing statistics, and alert those who will take advantage.
 
MangoJ said:
I have almost zero experience with Poker games (just online play money games). But hand histories are collected by the official software. Not using that information (i.e for hand ranges, bluff hands, lifetime efficiency) is clearly a disadvantage. I would not call it cheating when you use your personal records for that kind of stuff.

However there are whole websites selling those hand histories, and they are still in business for a reason.

Just make an experiment: Open a online cash game (i.e. with free play bonus money), observe a table with half of their seats available. In the minute you join that table, I guarantee you that table will get crowded. The reason: player without statistics available = high probability of being a fish.

I bet there are tools available scanning a lot of online tables looking for players with weak/no playing statistics, and alert those who will take advantage.
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There is a product called table ninja which does exactly that. Scans all tables to find you the ones with the most fish.
 
tezzadiver said:
Sorry to hear you are running bad.

It sucks especially when it never seems to end.:mad: I have had some breakeven 20000 hand stretches and it is soul destroying. Sometimes they can last for weeks.

Today for example lost 3 buy-ins in 15 mins. My AA cracked versus and the best- a two outer beating my two pair on the river.

Why does it always happen on the damn river!!!!!!!!!!!!

Needless to say no more poker today.;)
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Not running particularly bad - it was more a comment on the variance that I have experienced. Over a little under 4,000 hands, just 17 account for c250% of my net loss to date. When half a percent of a sample can skew the overall result by 100% then I fail to see how it can be claimed there is less variance with this than with BJ. In BJ, unless you were being very silly, there's no way that half a percent of hands would account for all of your net losses.

As it happens, my net loss to date is 4.41% of total bet - which means on average I'm overcoming the 15%-ish folding losses but have not yet managed to overcome the impact of the rake taken on my winning hands. Within this there is a recent neg streak where I have lost 45% of my amassed bankroll (c900 big blinds) in just 420 hands. All pennies of course, which is why I don't burst into tears.

With regard to your comment on breakeven, anyone who breakseven after 20,000 hands and maintains the value of their bankroll must be playing at a 17.5%-ish advantage (based on my stats). I suspect very few players acheive this. How much have you bet in these 20,000 hands, and what are the win/loss comparisons?
 
UK-21 said:
Not running particularly bad - it was more a comment on the variance that I have experienced. Over a little under 4,000 hands, just 17 account for c250% of my net loss to date. When half a percent of a sample can skew the overall result by 100% then I fail to see how it can be claimed there is less variance with this than with BJ. In BJ, unless you were being very silly, there's no way that half a percent of hands would account for all of your net losses.

As it happens, my net loss to date is 4.41% of total bet - which means on average I'm overcoming the 15%-ish folding losses but have not yet managed to overcome the impact of the rake taken on my winning hands. Within this there is a recent neg streak where I have lost 45% of my amassed bankroll (c900 big blinds) in just 420 hands. All pennies of course, which is why I don't burst into tears.

With regard to your comment on breakeven, anyone who breakseven after 20,000 hands and maintains the value of their bankroll must be playing at a 17.5%-ish advantage (based on my stats). I suspect very few players acheive this. How much have you bet in these 20,000 hands, and what are the win/loss comparisons?
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Are you playing 6 max or fullring? If you play 6 max or HU it`s much swingier.
Are you playing 0.2/0.4 or 0.5/0.10?
Your hand sample is not sufficient IMO to claculate you winrate.
50000-100000 hands is.
Remember the rake is going to murder you at these levels if you are not winning at at least 6BB/100.(that`s big bets not big blinds)
Swings of 10-15 buy ins are normal.
Are you analysing your hands post play to see where you could have spewed less?

There is a hell of a lot of variance in poker as I posted in my poker variance advice post some time ago. The only way to ride this short term variance out is by playing, and making sure you are playing with an advantage. Correct bankroll management and tilt control.

I think you are focusing too much on short term results and luck. If you are playing WITHOUT a rakeback deal or a good bonus that is easy to clear it is -EV.

To answer you last question is more difficult without my HEM which is out of operation at the moment but I will do the best I can.
My stats are approx 21/19 which means I play 21% hands and raise 19%. This is for Shorthanded tables. So I play approx 1 out of 5 hands and raise most of the hands I play. My VPIP is much tighter for FR tables- about 13/11 or something like that.
Win rate over a sample of 50000 hands at 0.05/0.10 when I played that was about 4BB/100. Easy to maintain if you are not spewing. When I moved up my winrate went down initially as I got used to the style of play, more 3 betting, 3 betting light, 4 bet bluffs etc. Plus I started to include sit n go`s- high variance! and HU in my play.

Poker is a long term gamble. IMO you have some choices.
1. Keep playing a decent sample of hands and calculate your winrate in BB over a sample of about 50000.
2. Plug your leaks
3. Stop after losing x amount of buy ins to control tilt.
4. Play less speculative hands and change to full ring and play a solid TAG game.
5. Don`t bluff at these levels.
6. Don`t CBET all flops
7. 3 bet and 3 bet light more IN POSITION.
8. Start to envision what your opponents range might be. With TAGS and LAGS this is easier- with fish less so.
9. Don`t overvalue pocket pairs.
10. Use your HUD and understand what it means.
11. Play less tables with no HUD and concentrate on reads.
12. Don`t limp into pots as a general rule- pocket pairs and some suited connectors are acceptable and from position, number of players, pot odds and implied odds etc.
13. Play in position.
14. Don`t defend your BB too much- you are out of position. I`ve seen players go manic to defend blinds and for what- 1bb?
15. Stop raising BB from SB. Sometimes BB does wake up with a monster.
16. If a table is tight play looser, If a table is looser play tighter.
17. Table selection- Anything over 30% vpip is gravy.
18. Don`t have Short stacks on your left.
19. Never bluff a calling station or fish. With these I just check a flop/fold.
20. Don`t overvalue top pair kicker. You can really spew with these.

I think really if you give yourself a chance- you will see results. Short term results can be frustrating and ask yourself honestly- Are you really playing with an advantage or just autopiloting hands?
You might have more leaks than you realise- everyone does.
 
Thanks guys. The article was useful. I'm not going to respond to every point that Tezzadiver made, I thought I'd throw in a few bits for clarification:

I'm not attempting to do any sort of long term analysis from the relatively small number of hands I've played - I use them only as a basis for commenting on my own results. I certainly haven't drawn any conclusions as to a "win rate", as the variance is just too all over the place to do so.

With regards to playing style averages are:

Play 10 player tables wherever possible
Buy in for 100 big blinds equivalent (max) and don't play beyond losing three buyins (which has only happened on one occasion).
Fold pre flop - 37%
Call into flop with 1xBB / 1xSB and then bail - 30%
Call at 2BBs only - 6%
Contest (call/raise) where pot is raised to 3BB or greater - 27%

I think that the second one has some scope to tighten up on and am looking at this. Overall, with the contests, I win more than I lose and all losses to
date have occured here, in the main where I've carried through a hand having a mathematical advantage and caught a cold.

The comment about not playing with a rakeback bonus of some sort will mean playing at a -EV just about sums it up. I'm not, and now my 30 days new member bonus has lapsed (which provided a cashback promo - effectively giving 125 big blinds back for every 750 hands played), I'll need to be playing at a 20%+ advantage consistently to reverse my fortunes. Even when I do, on my 4000-5000 hands experience once every 200 hands or so something happens that seriously skews the results (the most common being the 22-1 draw on the river that comes good for someone chasing with a weaker hand) - and when it does the losses outweigh the gains since the last time it happened.

I'm not looking to take playing hold'em to the nth degree (bearing in mind the pennies level I play at) or of making any money from it. My responses have been in regard of the discussion around "is it possible to play an overall winning game and make regular money playing poker online?" If the difference between "yes" and "no" is the availability of a rakeback promo, then it would suggest not??


Lastly, I don't understand what VPIP, TAG, LAG or HEM means - I've worked out that HU is "heads up" but that's about it. Can someone expand on these please?
 
VPIP- Percentage of hands you play and what you put in the pot.
TAG- Tight aggressive playing style
LAG- Loose aggressive playing style
HEM- Holdem manager stats analyser
HUD- Heads up display (shows your opponent`s stats and playing style- can be customised)
:)
 
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