I am wondering what others use as an acceptable RoR? Some might consider 20%, others might consider 1%. In the sims I've run, I try to stay under 10%, but then again I don't want to be that 1 in 10 player who happens to lose it all... So I am wondering what others' RoR's are.
What Risk of Ruin do you play with?
- Thread starter assume_R
- Start date
I'm sure mine is rather high since I'm very limited in my BR. Im a red chipper and my BR is currently 400 units. However it is replenishable at 22 units/month.:sad:
Check out http://bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/renewablebankrollformula.shtml if you haven't already to figure out your "equivalent" non-replenishable bankroll.
Solo player
Well-Known Member
Ror
I'm not a pro. Play about 120-200 hours per year on the strip. I use a trip ruin of less than 5%. My bank is replaceable. The swings are GIANORMOUS!! Enjoy.
I'm not a pro. Play about 120-200 hours per year on the strip. I use a trip ruin of less than 5%. My bank is replaceable. The swings are GIANORMOUS!! Enjoy.
Midwestern
Well-Known Member
I'm sure mine is rather high since I'm very limited in my BR. Im a red chipper and my BR is currently 400 units. However it is replenishable at 22 units/month.
your BR is workable though. you just have to have the confidence to keep betting it properly.
I have 1000 units and i spread 1-15 on shoe games. my BR (including early-on ploppy plays) has never dipped below 800 units.
(we all know past performance is not indicative of future results though).
SleightOfHand
Well-Known Member
When I first started, I had about 6k and played with a 10% RoR. When my BR bumped up to 15-20k, I brought it down to 5%. Now with a 30k roll, I play with a 1% max, although my typical game is around .5%
Coyote
Well-Known Member
Coyote
Well-Known Member
Good to know that I can work with it! I've been reading other threads on RoR and BR management; boy there is a lot of information here! :grin:
I was planning on spreading 1-10 for 6 deck game. Thoughts?
paddywhack
Well-Known Member
Since a great deal of my play is at one store that's known me since my ploppy days, I've kept the same max bet and continued to play at the same tables whilest my BR has steadily grown. RoR is for all intents and purposes, is zero at that game.
I could play at the HL tables and maybe garner more bucks per hour but I don't want to run the risk of possibly losing the game.
I could play at the HL tables and maybe garner more bucks per hour but I don't want to run the risk of possibly losing the game.
Coyote
Well-Known Member
Since a great deal of my play is at one store that's known me since my ploppy days, I've kept the same max bet and continued to play at the same tables whilest my BR has steadily grown. RoR is for all intents and purposes, is zero at that game.
I could play at the HL tables and maybe garner more bucks per hour but I don't want to run the risk of possibly losing the game.
So your cover/camo is reducing you RoR. Great strategy for home store play! All the fun and very little risk. Do you find it getting boring or a need for something more exciting?paddywhack
Well-Known Member
Trips to Vegas cures the doldrums. As well as some other regional trips.
I really don't have the major "need" to get the biggest bang from my BR at this time, not to the point of burning out a good game. This is a hobby I enjoy. I'm just trying to build the BR to the point that once it gets high enough I can move up in stakes and still have a very low RoR. But at that point it'll probably mean more traveling. By then though, I may have more time to travel, so who knows.
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Coyote
Well-Known Member
That is what I'm striving for too. In the mean time, more blackjack knowledge to be gained! So keep teaching fellas! :cool2:
Midwestern
Well-Known Member
Honestly i think you may be underbetting. .... 12 units is my tc3 bet right now ....and its just effective enough to be profitable and not too risky for my bankroll if I keep around 150 units on me for my sessions.
My spread is Wong-1-6-12-18 right now and it's working remarkably well
Midwestern
Well-Known Member
Are you sure you're asking this question the right way?
Ror is about degree of certainty that you wont go bust given a certain bankroll and a session of N hands.
On the normal probability distribution chart, you can see that 1 standard dev accounts for 68% of the returns around the mean, 1.96 standard
Deviations account for 95% of returns, and 3 stdev account for 99.7% of the probable outcomes.
I wanted to be 95% sure that i wasn't going to go bust, so my bankroll is 1.96 standard deviations, or ~5000 bucks. Technically this is 97.5% sure of not busting, because the other 2.5% explains out of the ordinary profits, not losses, which I welcome happily.
I'd say a 20% ror is asking for trouble.
Coyote
Well-Known Member
Thanks Midwestern, I'm going to take a look at that tonight and think about adjusting my betting strategy;... maybe split to two hands at the higher counts.
Coyote
Ferretnparrot
Well-Known Member
I play mine pretty high in the sense of trip to trip.
I may walk into a casino with only 2-3k and start dropping 2x150 or 3x100
I try to play the highest dollar amount that I feel comfortable betting in the particular casino, sometimes i go overboard as i did at elcortez on my vegas trip.
For me I play the same size bets no matter how much cash I have because in the near future, I can always get more cash and its just a matter of time before the casino stops getting lucky to have won my money in the first place.
so im probibly looking at like 30-40% for my common trips, for me this is better long term because if I bust out of 3k, Ill have another 3k in a week so I would only stop playing for a few days.
I may walk into a casino with only 2-3k and start dropping 2x150 or 3x100
I try to play the highest dollar amount that I feel comfortable betting in the particular casino, sometimes i go overboard as i did at elcortez on my vegas trip.
For me I play the same size bets no matter how much cash I have because in the near future, I can always get more cash and its just a matter of time before the casino stops getting lucky to have won my money in the first place.
so im probibly looking at like 30-40% for my common trips, for me this is better long term because if I bust out of 3k, Ill have another 3k in a week so I would only stop playing for a few days.
I am about the farthest thing from an expert on this but you should really consider scaling back or bringing more money. You really open yourself up to losing all your trip money before you have a good chance at winning when you only bring 10 base bets. The multiple hands help with variance but you must be flat betting or it is even worse. Maybe one of the experts can chime in.
BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
Since I switched from Hi Lo to Omega II with ace side count 9 months ago, my variance becomes extreme low so RoR is now irrelevant to me. In the past 7 months, my bankroll looks like climbing stairs up. Almost always three steps up and one step down. The normal pattern is every 4 sessions, I won three sessions and lose one session. I end each session in the end of the shoe after I won 40 units or lose 40 units with max session loss capped at 80 units. When I used Hi Lo, I won about 2.5 units per hour, now it is up to 5 units per hour.
Okay, that's your empirical results. Did your sims also show you expected to win 2.5 units per hour with HiLo to double that with Omega + ASC?
Ferretnparrot
Well-Known Member
If you have the ability to get more money when you need more, ROR doesnt even matter. because you essentially have an infinate bank.