Optimal Departure Points

A

assume_R

Well-Known Member
Hey all. I don't seem to have a copy of blackjack attack 3 handy, and was wondering if anybody could tell me how to compute optimal departure points? If I remember correctly, at a given TC (say, -2) it's better to leave early in the shoe rather than later (assuming you are going to stay away until the shuffle) but for the life of me I can't figure out why or how to compute it myself!

Thanks in advance.
 
assume_R said:
Hey all. I don't seem to have a copy of blackjack attack 3 handy, and was wondering if anybody could tell me how to compute optimal departure points? If I remember correctly, at a given TC (say, -2) it's better to leave early in the shoe rather than later (assuming you are going to stay away until the shuffle) but for the life of me I can't figure out why or how to compute it myself!

Thanks in advance.
Click to expand...

Don't have those figures handy myself, but I assume its because early on the RC is extremely low to be -2 TC, and will stay that way for a long time. At the end of shoe, if its -2, that's nothing, could turn into a +2 TC at the flip of a switch.
 
Gamblor said:
Don't have those figures handy myself, but I assume its because early on the RC is extremely low to be -2 TC, and will stay that way for a long time. At the end of shoe, if its -2, that's nothing, could turn into a +2 TC at the flip of a switch.
Click to expand...

I understand your second point, but regarding the first point, doesn't the RC always trend towards 0 (even though the TC theorem says the TC on average stays the same)?
 
Here are the givens for the sim:
Create a clock to adjust the per hour SCORE
100 hands per hour
180 second lag for switching tables (adjust hands per hour)
Precise bet sizing , no rounding, they used 1 to 12
TC determined to the exact number of cards remaining
4 players at the table at all times to determine SCORE

The results, and optimal bet for each TC, varied greatly depending on the number of decks and the penetration. It was more like -1 early for 6 decks and -0.75 for 8.

I hope that helps. They didnt explain method in detail.
 
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assume_R said:
Hey all. I don't seem to have a copy of blackjack attack 3 handy, and was wondering if anybody could tell me how to compute optimal departure points? If I remember correctly, at a given TC (say, -2) it's better to leave early in the shoe rather than later (assuming you are going to stay away until the shuffle) but for the life of me I can't figure out why or how to compute it myself!
Click to expand...
Optimal departure is co-dependent w/ how deep you are, not just TC. zg
 
assume_R said:
I understand your second point, but regarding the first point, doesn't the RC always trend towards 0 (even though the TC theorem says the TC on average stays the same)?
Click to expand...

Yes, good point. Maybe I wasn't too clear by "stays that way for a long time", but of course if the RC is -14 early on (lets say 7 decks remaining), it will theoretically on average gradually increase and gravitate towards 0, so you'll spend a long time at -13, -12, -11, etc., as the shoe progresses, which of course means you are taking more low cards than average.

Of course, lets say with 1 deck remaining, a RC of -2 is quite likely to switch to a +2 at any moment.
 
zengrifter said:
Optimal departure is co-dependent w/ how deep you are, not just TC. zg
Click to expand...

Assume_R seems pretty astute. I assume he knows that. His question was about method and included an incorrect early (I assumed 1 to 3 decks for 6/1.5 deck or 1 to 4 for 8/2 decks) departure TC. Better penetration moves this a little toward the negative TC.
 
"Regression toward the mean" in not a debatable tendency.

If the T.C. is −2 and it is early in the shoe, the player will need to play quite a few rounds for the T.C. to recover, and there is no guarantee that it will do so — merely a (weak) tendency.

If the T.C. is −2 and it is late in the shoe, the regression toward the mean is stronger and, in any case, the shuffle point will approach soon enough to make continued play less costly in terms of e.v.
 
Okay, so the consensus here seems to be if it's early in the shoe (8D), leave if it gets to about -.75 TC, but if it's later in the shoe (like the second half), stick it out unless it gets really bad (maybe -3?)?

And thanks tthree for the description of how to sim it myself.
 
The book has you pretty much giving up at half shoe if no recovery starts and continues immediately after that but at a table you must add some practical limitations. Number of players at the table (card eating), how easy it is to find another table, affect on heat, time/money wasted waiting and penetration by various dealers.
 
Here are the optimal Wong out (HiLo) points based on my own simulation:

in decks 1-4: TC = -2
in deck 5: TC = -1

The results are for the game I play under those conditions:

6-deck shoe with about one deck cut out, no shoe reentry after Wonging out until shuffle.
 
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psyduck said:
Here are the optimal Wong out (HiLo) points based on my own simulation:

in decks 1-4: TC = -2
in deck 5: TC = -1

The results are for the game I play under those conditions:

6-deck shoe with about one deck cut out, no shoe reentry after Wonging out until shuffle.
Click to expand...

Thank you! I was just looking for the optimal times to take a bathroom break.:grin:
 
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