Martingale Vs Card Counting

[MangoJ]

If you lose 53% of hands, then the simple math for the odds of losing 15 in a row is (53/100)^15 which = about 1/13672 which means it averages happening once per 205,094 hands if you play perfect strategy.

Again, as in the other thread: If your chance hitting a feature is 1/x, then your feature will happen once in x tries. How difficult must it be to understand that ?

Pull out a dice and try for yourself! Whats the probability of throwing a 4 ? It's 1/6 (on a fair dice). Now throw your dice 10.000 times and count how often you had hit a 4.

Surprise ?

 

[lothariorowe]

Again, as in the other thread: If your chance hitting a feature is 1/x, then your feature will happen once in x tries. How difficult must it be to understand that ?

Pull out a dice and try for yourself! Whats the probability of throwing a 4 ? It's 1/6 (on a fair dice). Now throw your dice 10.000 times and count how often you had hit a 4.

Surprise ?

Ok ok, I know, I get it now. It only takes 16 hands to make 2 different 15 card series - not the 30 hands I was thinking.

But that's still crazy odds for 21gunsalute - to lose 15 consecutive hands 5 times should require 68,364 hands played, right??

 

[dacium]

I believe that the chance of loosing any single hand of blackjack is up around 66%, its the doubles,splits and blackjacks that bring this back down to near the 50% figure.

At 66% 15 in a row is only 1 in 500.... you can see that big streaks are really common. The difference between using the 49.5%/52% values and the actual chance of having a profit on an idividual hand is everything, as it effects the variance in this case.

I have sat down with $200 at a $10 table and lost it all in under 20 hands on numerous occasions, flat betting.

 

[tthree]

Im not sure you have your percentage right but your point is valid. The number I hear, once you remove pushes, is a 6% difference between wins and losses. That is like winning 47% of the time and losing 53% of the time.

 

[stoicsang]

This is a follow on my last post. As expected my sytem failed a few sessions after that post. My luck ran longer than I thought but when it ended it ended spectaculary. I'm still in the black but I lost A LOT. Pretty much most of my winnings. which suck. Well I'm back to counting. No more stupid ideas.

 

[aslan]

I believe that the chance of loosing any single hand of blackjack is up around 66%, its the doubles,splits and blackjacks that bring this back down to near the 50% figure.

At 66% 15 in a row is only 1 in 500.... you can see that big streaks are really common. The difference between using the 49.5%/52% values and the actual chance of having a profit on an idividual hand is everything, as it effects the variance in this case.

I have sat down with $200 at a $10 table and lost it all in under 20 hands on numerous occasions, flat betting.

It was my understanding that the house had about a 10% edge if splits, doubles and naturals were not considered. I wonder if anyone here can say definitively what the house edge is as stated?

 

[tthree]

This is a follow on my last post. As expected my sytem failed a few sessions after that post. My luck ran longer than I thought but when it ended it ended spectaculary. I'm still in the black but I lost A LOT. Pretty much most of my winnings. which suck. Well I'm back to counting. No more stupid ideas.

To bad you didn't listen to everyone. I wonder how many martingalers were smart enough to listen to people and get out with a big profit. I bet the number is low if not zero.

 

[mikeinjersey]

I'm baaaaaaaaaack....

"Can we show mathematically that some sort of Martingale fares better than their AP art they boast of?" - No, but we can show mathematically that a Martingale has a long-term negative expectation, while advantage play has a long-term positive expectation. It doesn't get simpler than that.

Long term negative expecation if ONLY martingale is used. My new system is a 'generalization' of the current count along with martingale. So , a bit of a combination of the 2.

Lets face it, even if you're a perfect card counter at times it's a complete waste & your winnings could be minimal at best. meanwhile, you caused yourself an extreme migraine in the process.

Combining 2 important safeguards along with martingale could be your saving grace.

#1 try your best at getting a reserved table. (it's the easiest way to count and/or generalize)

#2 KNOW when to use your reshuffle...You usually only get 1 per day anyway. (most casinos) If you are seeing high cards galore and you just lost 5 hands in a row...don't worry about the money you just lost...RESHUFFLE !

#3 Generalizing the count is much easier than counting. Much less straining and less noticeable as well by the pit bosses. You may be off by as much as + or - 3 or 4 when Generalizing... but that means nothing compared to how you COULD lose 5 hands in a row when the count is +10 in your favor.

I spread my martingale out, and have 2 instances in which I play the same bet amount if I lose. If I lose 8 hands in a row, i'm wiped out... But as long as you GENERALIZE correctly and ask for that RESHUFFLE when needed, you'll be alright. (most of the time) You will still lose 8 hands in a row occasionally regardless....but in the long haul you should be on top.

any douchebags that disagree with me are just hard-nosed , book readers , that don't believe in anything except what they've been taught in their reading literature. (and don't have a mind for themselves..or don't have the experience in terms of years of playing blackjack)

I've lost 15 hands or more in a row 5 times in the last week. Enough said.

once again, plain martingale on it's own will give you horrible streaks like these at times.

 

[LovinItAll]

[deleted]

 

[tthree]

I'm baaaaaaaaaack....



Long term negative expecation if ONLY martingale is used. My new system is a 'generalization' of the current count along with martingale. So , a bit of a combination of the 2.

Lets face it, even if you're a perfect card counter at times it's a complete waste & your winnings could be minimal at best. meanwhile, you caused yourself an extreme migraine in the process.

Combining 2 important safeguards along with martingale could be your saving grace.

#1 try your best at getting a reserved table. (it's the easiest way to count and/or generalize)

#2 KNOW when to use your reshuffle...You usually only get 1 per day anyway. (most casinos) If you are seeing high cards galore and you just lost 5 hands in a row...don't worry about the money you just lost...RESHUFFLE !

#3 Generalizing the count is much easier than counting. Much less straining and less noticeable as well by the pit bosses. You may be off by as much as + or - 3 or 4 when Generalizing... but that means nothing compared to how you COULD lose 5 hands in a row when the count is +10 in your favor.

I spread my martingale out, and have 2 instances in which I play the same bet amount if I lose. If I lose 8 hands in a row, i'm wiped out... But as long as you GENERALIZE correctly and ask for that RESHUFFLE when needed, you'll be alright. (most of the time) You will still lose 8 hands in a row occasionally regardless....but in the long haul you should be on top.

any douchebags that disagree with me are just hard-nosed , book readers , that don't believe in anything except what they've been taught in their reading literature. (and don't have a mind for themselves..or don't have the experience in terms of years of playing blackjack)


once again, plain martingale on it's own will give you horrible streaks like these at times.

Boy this guy really doesn't understand the math of blackjack. It is not a game suited for a martingale approach at all. Negating pushes you win 6% less of the time than you lose. That is far worse than a coin flip. Winning money is most dependent on taking advantage of when a blackjack is likely, insuring when called for, and using the count to adjust splitting, doubling, surrender and hitting strategies to make up the 6% difference in winning and losing. Adjusting your bet size at the appropriate time and amount is the key to making this all work effectively. If he gets a migraine trying to add and subtract and divide maybe he shouldn't count. I have never gotten a migraine doing this.

 

[mikeinjersey]

Safeguard #1: Don't use any type of Martingale

Try paying attention next time. You could just as easily say this is a 'type' of card counting. Since somewhat of a martingale type approach is used in counting as well.

P.S. Have I been leveled?

no, but you could get off your soapbox. You obviously posted to try to stand out like you really know what your talking about, when in reality it's just more mumbo jumbo book talk.

It's so funny how people post here, trying to act like they know everything...when in reality, their probably just the sore losers who are mad at the winners....and people like myself that have been winning consistently for over 7 years now.

Boy this guy really doesn't understand the math of blackjack. It is not a game suited for a martingale approach at all.

silly boy, once again I didn't say I was solely using a martingale system...

 

[LovinItAll]

[deleted]

 

[LovinItAll]

You're wasting your breath. Anyone who cannot figure out the flaws in his claims and allegations is beyond hopeless.

You're right. I'm going to delete my responses even though it will take up even more of my life than I've already spent answering the OP. Besides, being a smartass isn't really becoming...I should have kept my mouth shut.

Age is supposed to bring some modicum of wisdom - I forget sometimes. thanks for the reminder.

L.I.A.

 

[21gunsalute]

I'm baaaaaaaaaack....



Long term negative expecation if ONLY martingale is used. My new system is a 'generalization' of the current count along with martingale. So , a bit of a combination of the 2.

Lets face it, even if you're a perfect card counter at times it's a complete waste & your winnings could be minimal at best. meanwhile, you caused yourself an extreme migraine in the process.

Combining 2 important safeguards along with martingale could be your saving grace.

#1 try your best at getting a reserved table. (it's the easiest way to count and/or generalize)

#2 KNOW when to use your reshuffle...You usually only get 1 per day anyway. (most casinos) If you are seeing high cards galore and you just lost 5 hands in a row...don't worry about the money you just lost...RESHUFFLE !

#3 Generalizing the count is much easier than counting. Much less straining and less noticeable as well by the pit bosses. You may be off by as much as + or - 3 or 4 when Generalizing... but that means nothing compared to how you COULD lose 5 hands in a row when the count is +10 in your favor.

I spread my martingale out, and have 2 instances in which I play the same bet amount if I lose. If I lose 8 hands in a row, i'm wiped out... But as long as you GENERALIZE correctly and ask for that RESHUFFLE when needed, you'll be alright. (most of the time) You will still lose 8 hands in a row occasionally regardless....but in the long haul you should be on top.

any douchebags that disagree with me are just hard-nosed , book readers , that don't believe in anything except what they've been taught in their reading literature. (and don't have a mind for themselves..or don't have the experience in terms of years of playing blackjack)


once again, plain martingale on it's own will give you horrible streaks like these at times.

#1 never listen to anything mikeinjersey has to say.
#2 never listen to anything mikeinjersey has to say.
#3 never listen to anything mikeinjersey has to say.

I would like to hear your explanation as to how not using "plain martingale on its own" would alter the number of consecutive hands lost in a row.

Actually the opposite would be true. None of those 15 hand losing streaks would have been anywhere near that long had I been using "plain martingale". I would have run out of money well before I'd lost 15 hands in a row.

And in reality anyone who disagrees with you has to have at least half a brain, which is twice as much credit as I'm willing to give you.

Nice to have you back though. BJGenius was about the only other poster who could keep coming up with ridiculous, hair-brained nonsense that had so much entertainment value.

 

[21gunsalute]

It's so funny how people post here, trying to act like they know everything...when in reality, their probably just the sore losers who are mad at the winners....

Yeah, we've been missing that from you lately.

 

[mikeinjersey]

I would like to hear your explanation as to how not using "plain martingale on its own" would alter the number of consecutive hands lost in a row.

Basically what your asking is how 'just card counting' would prevent losing so many consecutive hands in a row.

1) First of all, if I knew the count was generally around -10 or worse (-15) ...I'd be more inclined to hit on 14's , 15's, 16's ...knowing the chance of smaller cards coming up are increased pretty significantly.

heck, If I was playing solo and the count was around that range...I MAY even hit on 12's, 13's, and 14's....EVEN if a bust card was showing up. (like I said, ONLY if I was playing solo..)

2) opposite is true as well.. Count is around +10 or more , I'd be less likely to hit on a 12, 13, 14, 15, 16. (regardless of what the card says)

It's much easier to save yourself from losing so many hands in a row when you have a 'general' idea of what the count is. You don't need to be all anal & know the EXACT count...like others try to say here to make themselves stand out like geniuses .

My advice, download an app on your phone like 'Real Blackjack' or something similar...that simulates real blackjack of 6 decks. The one I use has a 'count' button that you can press at any time that will tell you the actual count at that particular time... This way , you can guess...and when you have a general idea of what the count is....press the 'count' button to see if your right or not.

I program / train my brain nightly on that..

 

[21gunsalute]

Basically what your asking is how 'just card counting' would prevent losing so many consecutive hands in a row.

1) First of all, if I knew the count was generally around -10 or worse (-15) ...I'd be more inclined to hit on 14's , 15's, 16's ...knowing the chance of smaller cards coming up are increased pretty significantly.

heck, If I was playing solo and the count was around that range...I MAY even hit on 12's, 13's, and 14's....EVEN if a bust card was showing up. (like I said, ONLY if I was playing solo..)

2) opposite is true as well.. Count is around +10 or more , I'd be less likely to hit on a 12, 13, 14, 15, 16. (regardless of what the card says)

It's much easier to save yourself from losing so many hands in a row when you have a 'general' idea of what the count is. You don't need to be all anal & know the EXACT count...like others try to say here to make themselves stand out like geniuses .

My advice, download an app on your phone like 'Real Blackjack' or something similar...that simulates real blackjack of 6 decks. The one I use has a 'count' button that you can press at any time that will tell you the actual count at that particular time... This way , you can guess...and when you have a general idea of what the count is....press the 'count' button to see if your right or not.

I program / train my brain nightly on that..

Sorry, I count the old fashioned way. I use my head. You should try it sometime.

And thank you for the advice on how to play stiffs. I've been listening to the experts who came up with indices and they don't always work. I'm assuming your method works 100% of the time, right.

I know why you don't count cards in your head. Obviously you have trouble with simple mathematics:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=200719#post200719

4 years + 8 months does not equal 7 years.

 

[mikeinjersey]

Sorry, I count the old fashioned way. I use my head. You should try it sometime.

And thank you for the advice on how to play stiffs. I've been listening to the experts who came up with indices and they don't always work. I'm assuming your method works 100% of the time, right.

I know why you don't count cards in your head. Obviously you have trouble with simple mathematics:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=200719#post200719

4 years + 8 months does not equal 7 years.

good detective work , sherlock.

and good luck with the nerd tactics...look how far it's gotten you.

Most people waste their mental energy trying for a perfect count , which is why they fail in the long run.

 

[tthree]

good detective work , sherlock.

and good luck with the nerd tactics...look how far it's gotten you.

Most people waste their mental energy trying for a perfect count , which is why they fail in the long run.

Most people fail in the long run because:
1) They over bet when they dont have an advantage
2) They cant keep an accurate count
3) They make the mistake of applying large positive indices to early, before the index is actually reached (this is a very costly mistake)
4) They dont have a sufficient bankroll
5) They dont understand risk averse play to reduce variance and increase long term profit
6) A sustained run of really bad luck

How many of these mistakes are you making?

 

[aslan]

Most people fail in the long run because:
1) They over bet when they dont have an advantage
2) They cant keep an accurate count
3) They make the mistake of applying large positive indices to early, before the index is actually reached (this is a very costly mistake)
4) They dont have a sufficient bankroll
5) They dont understand risk averse play to reduce variance and increase long term profit
6) A sustained run of really bad luck

How many of these mistakes are you making?

Uh, just for the record, #6 ia not a mistake. :grin: But I for one have made all those mistakes.