Getting murdered on six deckers

S

shinyam

Well-Known Member
I've lost over 20,000 on six deckers. However, I am doing very well on 8 deckers at the same place.

The betting ramp is the same. So is the pen, and other factors.

What could be the reason? I have not had any major wins at the six deckers, just major losses (from 2000-4000).

Any idea why this is happening? Could it be that they have short-shoed the six deckers?
 
It's called variance..It could have went the other way around, and you may have thought the 8 deckers were shorted..Can't say that I haven't felt like this at times, but it all works out in the end.
 
if you are using a progression system or just BS, then this is normal. but actually, if you are counting, this could be normal too, but with the hope of getting it back.
 
Max bet is $500 to $700.

This month alone, I lost $12,000 in 55 hours. According to CVCX, there is less than a 5% chance of this happening.

I practiced with Casino Verite just to be sure, and sure enough my counts were spot on. I did make a few mistakes, however, mostly becasuse of errors in estimating the number of decks left.

I don't think these small errors, however, are the reason for these massive losses.
 
Wow, that is extreme Jack_Black.

I figure that a 5% chance of losing that much is very unusual. But I guess it's not...

I will continue to soldier on, and see what happens. However, I am very discouraged right now, as this losing streak has wiped out much of my wins that I slowly amassed over the year.
 
shinyam said:
Max bet is $500 to $700.

This month alone, I lost $12,000 in 55 hours. According to CVCX, there is less than a 5% chance of this happening.

I practiced with Casino Verite just to be sure, and sure enough my counts were spot on. I did make a few mistakes, however, mostly becasuse of errors in estimating the number of decks left.

I don't think these small errors, however, are the reason for these massive losses.
Click to expand...

Your performance at home on training software may not tell the whole story when it comes to your performance in live casino conditions. You noticed "a few small errors," but what could you have failed to notice? So, yes, this could have just been variance, but maybe not.
 
shinyam said:
I've lost over 20,000 on six deckers. However, I am doing very well on 8 deckers at the same place.

The betting ramp is the same. So is the pen, and other factors.

What could be the reason? I have not had any major wins at the six deckers, just major losses (from 2000-4000).

Any idea why this is happening? Could it be that they have short-shoed the six deckers?
Click to expand...

No they are not short shoeing the six deck game. You didn't mention amount of play you are basing these results on, so I have to assume it is all just a short run, small sample size, in which case, as AM said, thats just the way it goes sometimes. :confused:

Bigger question for me is why you are playing 8 deck games if the same store has 6 deck games at same table limits, rules and penetration? :confused: Do you realize how inferior the 8 deck game is? :eek: As a player who 'grew up' on 8 deck games in AC, it took me a while to see this. At first glance it doesn't look all that worse. A couple one-hundredth of a percent extra house edge. It isn't until you look at the frequency of high counts that you can see what a large difference it really is. This is confirmed by running simulations. It's a much bigger difference than it seems. So if a place has similar 6 and 8 deck games, it's not even a close call. Play the 6. For me to play 8 decks now over 6, it has to be something really special. Extraordinary penetration or some extra rule or advantage that isn't offered at the 6 deck game, which is rare. It's usually the other way around. I suppose crowded conditions could be a consideration as speed and hands per hour could make a less crowded 8 deck game more attractive, but that probably wouldn't be enough for me.
 
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