R.O.R. question...
- Thread starter rounder21
- Start date
sagefr0g
Well-Known Member
i believe in order to place your optimal bets according to Kelly betting that the 13% figure comes into play. 13% standard error is a common figure for human endeavors involving accuracy, precision and measurement. so it seems logical that 13% ROR would be associated with optimal betting.
the problem as i see it for going with full Kelly betting and the 13% ROR is fluctuation. the degree of fluctuation involved would require a high degree of pyschological stamina of the counter employing full kelly.
using fractional Kelly Betting a counter can still realize reasonable bankroll growth with a lower ROR and less of a pyschological roller coaster ride as a result of fluctuation.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
The 13% ROR is for someone using full-Kelly betting but never resizing their bets as their bankroll changes. Using a fraction of Kelly betting will still retain most of its power with a lower ROR. Also, if you adjust your bets after losing half of your BR then your ROR will decrease (I think around 5%). Theoretically, if you resize your bets after every session you would have almost a 0% ROR, but that wouldn’t be very practical.
-Sonny-
-Sonny-
Thanks for the replies...
I'm still thinking I can have a higher R.O.R. and still be comfortable. I have a steady income and my session bankroll can always be replaced. Keeping my R.O.R. at 13% for each trip just doesnt allow for any worthy profit at the games I play. In fact I think if I play the 2-deck (50% pen) (H17 DAS no
surrender), I will bet maybe 1/3 or 1/4 of my session BR when count goes favorable. And decide on a stopping point or time limit to stop at. This will increase my ROR but I'm still playing with an advantage and it will increase my possibility for more profit. If I lose my session BR I'm always able to play again within a couple of weeks. You just can't make money at these garbage
games without taking bigger risks. Really there is no overall ROR for me because I have another income and will never be ruined. I just want to stay ahead and am comfortable with increasing my chances of losing more when I also increase my chances of winning more as long as I'm playing with an advantage. When I first started counting, I didnt really know about the concept of ROR and standard deviation. I got really lucky and ended up way ahead when I was betting too much for what would be considered a comfortable ROR. Then I took a couple of bad beatings and learned about ROR and standard deviation. I was still pretty far ahead before I started playing conservatively. Now I'm thinking about going back to the old way.
Thanks again,
Rounder
I'm still thinking I can have a higher R.O.R. and still be comfortable. I have a steady income and my session bankroll can always be replaced. Keeping my R.O.R. at 13% for each trip just doesnt allow for any worthy profit at the games I play. In fact I think if I play the 2-deck (50% pen) (H17 DAS no
surrender), I will bet maybe 1/3 or 1/4 of my session BR when count goes favorable. And decide on a stopping point or time limit to stop at. This will increase my ROR but I'm still playing with an advantage and it will increase my possibility for more profit. If I lose my session BR I'm always able to play again within a couple of weeks. You just can't make money at these garbage
games without taking bigger risks. Really there is no overall ROR for me because I have another income and will never be ruined. I just want to stay ahead and am comfortable with increasing my chances of losing more when I also increase my chances of winning more as long as I'm playing with an advantage. When I first started counting, I didnt really know about the concept of ROR and standard deviation. I got really lucky and ended up way ahead when I was betting too much for what would be considered a comfortable ROR. Then I took a couple of bad beatings and learned about ROR and standard deviation. I was still pretty far ahead before I started playing conservatively. Now I'm thinking about going back to the old way.
Thanks again,
Rounder
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Just make sure that you have enough money to play properly. If you bet 1/4 of your session BR on a hand then have to insure, split and/or double a few times you might run out of money before you can finish the hand. The last thing you want to do is miss a split or double opportunity because you are out of cash.
Other than that, your strategy sounds good. Since your bankroll is replenishable from your other income you don't have to worry about blowing it all in one trip. You can use a Trip ROR formula instead of a Lifetime ROR formula to determine your trip BR requirements.
-Sonny-
Other than that, your strategy sounds good. Since your bankroll is replenishable from your other income you don't have to worry about blowing it all in one trip. You can use a Trip ROR formula instead of a Lifetime ROR formula to determine your trip BR requirements.
-Sonny-
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I've lost 20 units on one hand before. The count was high so I bought in for 20 units, bet 4 units, split to three hands and doubled two of them. Sometimes a session bankroll only lasts for one hand. 
I'm sure that people who use a bigger spread have bet much more than that on a single hand. Imagine if that had been a 12 unit bet! I would have had 60 units on the table!!
-Sonny-
I'm sure that people who use a bigger spread have bet much more than that on a single hand. Imagine if that had been a 12 unit bet! I would have had 60 units on the table!!
-Sonny-
Yea thanks...
I have thought about that too. I really enjoy the game and hate it when my session ends so quickly. I'll probably stick with a 4-1 spread until I'm just about ready to go home then I'll get crazy. Maybe by this time I will have built up a little bit and then I'll have a little more to work with when I get crazy. And maybe 1/6 of my bankroll is better than the 1/4. I especially hate running out of money when the count is still positive. My problem is that I love the game too much. And playing with sensible conservative strategies can be quite boring.
Good Cards,
Rounder
I have thought about that too. I really enjoy the game and hate it when my session ends so quickly. I'll probably stick with a 4-1 spread until I'm just about ready to go home then I'll get crazy. Maybe by this time I will have built up a little bit and then I'll have a little more to work with when I get crazy. And maybe 1/6 of my bankroll is better than the 1/4. I especially hate running out of money when the count is still positive. My problem is that I love the game too much. And playing with sensible conservative strategies can be quite boring.
Good Cards,
Rounder